Show me your money, and I'll take that bet. ----- Original Message ----- From: "Sabri Oncu" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: <[email protected]> Sent: Saturday, September 15, 2007 2:30 AM Subject: Re: [PEN-L] Hedge Fund Clones
> Michael: > > > Leigh, this is not real information. To have a reporter say that > > someone says something is happening does not always convey anything > > new. In this case it did not > > Of course it is real information. It is real in the sense that the article > Leigh sent appeared on CNN. Now, does the appearence of this article on CNN > mean that we will reach the oil peak in the next few years? Probably not! > > But, sooner or later, that day will come. > > I do not understand what the issue is. Is it that there will never come a day > when the oil production will peak? > > I make a bet for a trillion dollars: one day in the future the oil production > will peak. Are there any takers of the opposite side? I tell you, if there are > any takers, I am guaranteed that I will not lose any money in this bet and have > a chance to make a trillion dollars with positive probability, depending on > when I die, which is also a probabilistic event of the future, which includes > the current time, since now is the begining of the future. > > This is called arbitrage of the first type in the finance jargon, if I can find > a taker of the opposite side, of course. > > It is all about the survival probabilities and how they are estimated. > > Best, > Sabri > > > > ________________________________________________________________________ ____________ > Building a website is a piece of cake. Yahoo! Small Business gives you all the tools to get online. > http://smallbusiness.yahoo.com/webhosting >
