All,

The following PMP® exam sample question is taken from
http://www.free-pm-exam-questions.com - The answer is at the very bottom:
*
PMBOK Section*:        Estimate Activity Durations            *Process
Group:*        Planning Process Group
*Question Type:*          Calculation
 *Knowledge
Area:*      Time Management
*Difficulty Level: *         Moderate

------------------------------

You are managing a construction project. You have just finished defining
your activities and are now estimating their durations. Obtain government
permits is one of your project activities that is very critical for the
success of your project. You obtain expert opinion regarding time
requirements for this activity and you have come to the conclusion that its
most likely duration will be fifteen days. It will be very optimistic to
obtain the permits in ten days. However keeping the current environmental
factors into consideration, it may take up to thirty days to obtain the
permits. What estimate should you take for this activity if you want to put
more weight on the most likely duration with a ten percent contingency
reserve? (Round to the nearest day)

    A.    17 days
    B.    18 days
    C.    20 days
    D.    33 days

Hint :   Use PERT formula to estimate your initial estimate.

------------------------------
Correct    :    B

Reference:    PMBOK4 - pg:150


Explanation    Since you want to put more weight on the most likely
estimate, you should use the PERT formula for your initial estimate rather
than taking a simple average of the three values. Your PERT estimate will be
(10 + 4*15 + 30) / 6 = 16.67 days. Adding a ten percent contingency reserve
to it will give 16.67*1.1 = 18.33 days. Rounding your estimate to the
nearest day will give 18 days. Choice B is the correct answer to this
question.

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Until next time,
Cornelius Fichtner, PMP

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