----- Original Message -----
Sent: Monday, March 14, 2005 11:21
PM
Subject: [racebase] A bit of a
skite
How's this for an overlay?
I backed Ladykin, winner of the 3YO mile at Te
Aroha, at $22 — the opening quote on Thursday. Not a huge bet but a very
tasty 1100 to 50 . . . 21 to 1 about a horse which started at 6 to 1 — 3½
times SP. I'd be rather proud of myself except that I know pride goeth before
a fall.
And I'm not in the habit of backing $22 shots . . . I just
happened to see the filly run well a couple of starts back and decided to back
her until she won.
One thing I am certain of . . . those Thursday markets
are a goldmine, especially for favourite backers. The TAB's odds setters seem
reluctant to frame a market with the fav at its true price; it's as
if they are embarrassed to quote anything at evens or less. Opening Downwind
at $2.75, which it stayed at through Friday, was giving money away. And
occasionally something like Ladykin, which was picked by two or three of the
Friday Flash selectors, gets under their guard . . . probably because of
a lack of homework on their part.
Gil
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