Re: [racebase] A bit of a skite

[Gilbert Dymock]

Maybe, Neil. I've never analysed their markets to see what percentages they're working to . . . probably 120 to 125 would be my guess.   My experience of overnight markets from years ago was that the fav would be at reasonably generous odds while the lesser lights would be kept safe. The big difference then was that, apart from some bookie to bookie and other insider trading, the general public couldn't get on until raceday, with the little pre-selling that did exist being confined to major events. By post time Saturday you'd get a fair dinkum market, one that was heavily influenced by the bookies' intelligence-gathering network. I recall watching an argument one Saturday before the first race at Flemington between a bookie and a punter. The punter has arrived early to put a poultice on a two-year-old having its first start and finds he's being offered twos on instead of the expected 3s against. "This was three to one in the Herald last night," he complains. "Go and see if you can get set with Jack Elliott then," the bookie tells him. "It's twos on with me."   My guess with the NZTAB's early markets is that they're like the ones which appeared all those years ago in the Melbourne Herald on a Friday night . . . academically sound but in practice vulnerable. And the compiler's lack of homework often shows up.   Gil         ----- Original Message ----- From: Neil Franklyn To: racebase@yahoogroups.com Sent: Monday, March 21, 2005 8:26 PM Subject: Re: [racebase] A bit of a skite   Gil wrote: Snipped ...   One thing I am certain of . . . those Thursday markets are a goldmine, especially for favourite backers. The TAB's odds setters seem reluctant to frame a market with the fav at its true price; it's as if they are embarrassed to quote anything at evens or less. Opening Downwind at $2.75, which it stayed at through Friday, was giving money away. And occasionally something like Ladykin, which was picked by two or three of the Friday Flash selectors, gets under their guard . . . probably because of a lack of homework on their part.   Hi Gil,   There appears to be an overseas trend developing [mainly in the UK, but lately in Aus] whereby prominent bookies are offering generous markets on Thursdays and Fridays for Saturday racing. Maybe the NZTAB is following that trend.   Regards   Neil F Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ADVERTISEMENT Yahoo! Groups Links To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/racebase/   To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED]   Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.