H Billy, On Apr 30, 2012, at 3:56 PM, [email protected] wrote:
> OK, but if you drive around with no spare and have a blowout > 20 miles outside of Fresno......... > > I simply don't see where "political unity and economic growth" > are issues. Not talking about protecting whole industries, > just parts of any that we would need in an emergency. I still haven't seen any of you scenarios that justify stockpiling/manufacturing electric transformers. Maybe I don't understand your definition of emergency. Or of transformers. If your scenario is "All exports from China shut down suddenly with no warning while we are immediately in a supply-constrained war of attrition", then yes, I can see how we must be able to immediately manufacture *everything* we need to run our core economy for an extended period of time. But I assert that attempting to enforce that would carry a huge economic and political cost. Would you disagree? If the scenario is, "We need to be able to field a military force overseas for six months relying entire on domestic manufacturing and stockpiles", then I agree. That argues for ensuring that munitions (and the industries that support them) are self-sufficient. But I don't see how you get from there to electric transformers. Is your scenario somewhere in the middle? Or are electric transformers somehow essential for building missiles? -- Ernie P. > In case we need them if a war breaks out and we cannot wait > to redevelop them, which could take months or even years. > With "spares" in place the only task would be expansion to > necessary capacity ; the expertise would be available. > > This is entirely consistent with thoughtful "scenarios, realistic analyses, > and balanced strategies." > > No idea where you see serious problems arising. We have no > such problems with, say, the strategic petroleum reserve, > and that is the basic idea. The oil industry does quite well > and has no complaints. > > Billy > > ============================== > > > > 4/30/2012 2:31:56 P.M. Pacific Daylight Time, [email protected] > writes: > Hi Billy, > > Sent from my iPhone > > On Apr 30, 2012, at 12:22, [email protected] wrote: > > > Therefore a spare tire for consumer electronics, transformers, > > and everything else that we would need if, say, a Chinese collapse > > results in large scale war, or turmoil in the Mid East if Israel is hit > > by Iranian rockets and a war like 1973 breaks out --to use just > > two examples. > > > > Spare tire : Don't leave home without it. > > The problem is that everything has tradeoffs. Saving electronic transformers > may not be worth it if it costs political unity and economic growth. We need > robust scenarios, realistic analyses, and balanced strategies. Justifying > policy by accusing opponents of ignoring "national security interest" is the > opposite of that. :-) > > E > > -- > Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community > <[email protected]> > Google Group: http://groups.google.com/group/RadicalCentrism > Radical Centrism website and blog: http://RadicalCentrism.org > > > -- > Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community > <[email protected]> > Google Group: http://groups.google.com/group/RadicalCentrism > Radical Centrism website and blog: http://RadicalCentrism.org -- Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community <[email protected]> Google Group: http://groups.google.com/group/RadicalCentrism Radical Centrism website and blog: http://RadicalCentrism.org
