Comments below 4/30/2012 4:13:46 P.M. Pacific Daylight Time, [email protected] writes:
H Billy, On Apr 30, 2012, at 3:56 PM, [email protected]_ (mailto:[email protected]) wrote: OK, but if you drive around with no spare and have a blowout 20 miles outside of Fresno......... I simply don't see where "political unity and economic growth" are issues. Not talking about protecting whole industries, just parts of any that we would need in an emergency. I still haven't seen any of you scenarios that justify stockpiling/manufacturing electric transformers. Maybe I don't understand your definition of emergency. Or of transformers. If your scenario is "All exports from China shut down suddenly with no warning while we are immediately in a supply-constrained war of attrition", then yes, I can see how we must be able to immediately manufacture *everything* we need to run our core economy for an extended period of time. But I assert that attempting to enforce that would carry a huge economic and political cost. Would you disagree? Don't see why it would. Not talking about a spare General Motors or an extra Westinghouse, just modest size operations that employ a decent size staff of engineers and other experts and the templates to retool at scale if the need arises. While they are at it, the engineers and other experts might devise ways to make their smallish-company highly profitable, more efficient, and the like, and in the process contribute to the economy. But even if such advantages were not realized, just having these small scale businesses in existence would have the same kind of effect as having a spare tire in your car, peace of mind, reassurance, confidence. Sure, a spare tire costs money, maybe $ 100 or more, but its worth it. If the scenario is, "We need to be able to field a military force overseas for six months relying entirely on domestic manufacturing and stockpiles", then I agree. That argues for ensuring that munitions (and the industries that support them) are self-sufficient. But I don't see how you get from there to electric transformers. Is your scenario somewhere in the middle? Or are electric transformers somehow essential for building missiles? Yes : Without them, no grid, no computers, no nuthin' And we don't have the capacity to manufacture them now and I'd say that is one helluva serious potential danger to the nation. -- Ernie P. In case we need them if a war breaks out and we cannot wait to redevelop them, which could take months or even years. With "spares" in place the only task would be expansion to necessary capacity ; the expertise would be available. This is entirely consistent with thoughtful "scenarios, realistic analyses, and balanced strategies." No idea where you see serious problems arising. We have no such problems with, say, the strategic petroleum reserve, and that is the basic idea. The oil industry does quite well and has no complaints. Billy ============================== 4/30/2012 2:31:56 P.M. Pacific Daylight Time, [email protected]_ (mailto:[email protected]) writes: Hi Billy, Sent from my iPhone On Apr 30, 2012, at 12:22, [email protected]_ (mailto:[email protected]) wrote: > Therefore a spare tire for consumer electronics, transformers, > and everything else that we would need if, say, a Chinese collapse > results in large scale war, or turmoil in the Mid East if Israel is hit > by Iranian rockets and a war like 1973 breaks out --to use just > two examples. > > Spare tire : Don't leave home without it. The problem is that everything has tradeoffs. Saving electronic transformers may not be worth it if it costs political unity and economic growth. We need robust scenarios, realistic analyses, and balanced strategies. Justifying policy by accusing opponents of ignoring "national security interest" is the opposite of that. :-) E -- Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community <[email protected]_ (mailto:[email protected]) > Google Group: _http://groups.google.com/group/RadicalCentrism_ (http://groups.google.com/group/RadicalCentrism) Radical Centrism website and blog: _http://RadicalCentrism.org_ (http://radicalcentrism.org/) -- Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community <[email protected]> Google Group: http://groups.google.com/group/RadicalCentrism Radical Centrism website and blog: http://RadicalCentrism.org
<<inline: Untitled.jpg>>
