So the only Law of History is that there are no laws of history?

Is there even a Theory of History?

Is Toynbee completely forgotten/scorned?

Sent from my iPhone

> On Dec 17, 2018, at 18:17, Billy Rojas <[email protected]> 
> wrote:
> 
> Ernie:
> 
> I like "fudge factor;" it is also used in architecture to accommodate
> 
> small discrepancies in calculations that, in practical terms, don't mean too 
> much.
> 
> Like being off 1/64th of an inch when the job allows for, say, wood shrinkage 
> of 1/32 of an inch.
> 
> 
> 
> Clearly the fudge factor can apply to other problems, like generalizations 
> about history.
> 
> 
> Think I'll stick with Professor Borrowdale on the usefulness of the junk 
> concept
> at least in some cases, those that don't ruffle the feathers of people 
> in the physics community ;-)
> 
> About laws of history, I should tell you that they beat this idea out of our 
> heads
> in history grad school.  I mean, who doesn't want to come up with a nice 
> glossy law of
> how history works?  I sure do, and way back when it was sort of a passion.
> But that was before my MA program and everyone got serious about 
> what will fly and what will not.
> 
> "So you think you have discovered a law of history, do you?"
> "Yes, sir, its all written out here for you to review."
> "Dammit, how many times do I have to tell you that there are NO laws of 
> history?"
> "But sir, if you will just look at my paper..."
> "I don't have time for such nonsense."
> 
> At which the professor takes out a long sturdy stick and says, "assume the 
> position."
> 
> WHACK.
> 
> "Do you still believe there are laws of history?"
> "Well, yes, because..."
> 
> WHACK  WHACK  WHACK
> 
> "Now do you still believe there are laws of history?"
> 
> 
> "Owww, that is painful, owww, no sir, not any more."
> (cry, cry, cry)
> 
> 
> 
> Maybe this explains things better....
> 
> B.
> 
> 
> 
> From: [email protected] <[email protected]> on 
> behalf of Centroids <[email protected]>
> Sent: Monday, December 17, 2018 2:58 PM
> To: [email protected]
> Cc: Billy Rojas
> Subject: Re: [RC] F= M+A+ Junk ? @#% +22+ZX=wth
>  
> Hi Billy,
> 
>> I do think that the "junk" metaphor is useful, but technically you may well 
>> be quite right.
>> 
> Actually, the more technical term is “fudge factor.” :-). That is an extra 
> term added to your formal theory in order to match reality. 
> 
> In fact Einstein incorrectly added one himself:
> 
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cosmological_constant
> Cosmological constant
> en.wikipedia.org
> In cosmology, the cosmological constant (usually denoted by the Greek capital 
> letter lambda: Λ) is the energy density of space, or vacuum energy, that...
> 
> Also, it IS often quite useful to rewrite equations using “relativistic 
> corrections” that are small perturbations against the classical version.  
> 
> So your instincts weren’t that far off. Just don’t call them junk. :-)
> 
> E
> 
>> When it comes to physics you lost me around paragraph #2,
>> 
>> so I don't know nearly enough to tell if there really is or is not some 
>> "junk"
>> 
>> to allow for in the science involved. But the value of the "junk hypothesis"
>> 
>> in the social sciences is that it makes us   -your favorite word-  humble
>> 
>> when thinking we can devise laws of history when all that is currently
>> 
>> possible are generalizations or maybe (maybe) weak laws that rest upon
>> 
>> strong generalizations.  
>> 
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