This stat is misleading. Since the wild card, 8 teams make the playoffs a year. Thus it is distribution of teams that take those spots that is revealing. Take a look on wikipedia. High payroll teams are disproportionately represented. There is not parity in baseball. The Yankees didn't buy the WS. They bought the playoffs, again. This gave them a good shot at the WS.
Ray, your world view is safe. -----Original Message----- From: [email protected] <[email protected]> To: [email protected] <[email protected]> Sent: Mon Nov 16 21:25:34 2009 Subject: Like I was saying The Yankees Didn't Buy the World Series Since 2004, 20 of baseball's 30 teams have made the playoffs. By ANDREW ZIMBALIST <http://online.wsj.com/search/search_center.html?KEYWORDS=ANDREW+ZIMBALIST+&ARTICLESEARCHQUERY_PARSER=bylineAND> Judging from the media coverage, it seems that the only thing the Yankees didn't do on their way to buying the 2009 World Series is ask the federal government for a bailout. But is it true that the Yankees bought their trophy? Are the championship rings the players will take home simply a byproduct of the largest payroll in Major League Baseball? And if so, how come the Yankees haven't won the fall classic since 2000, even though the franchise led the way in payroll each year and actually spent more last year (when it missed the playoffs) than it did this year? It's a little surprising, but the statistical relationship between a team's winning percentage and its payroll is not very high. When I plot payroll and win percentage on the same graph, the two variables don't always move together. In other words, knowing a team's payroll does not enable one to know a team's win percentage. More precisely, depending on the year, I find somewhere between 15% and 30% of the variance in team win percentage can be explained by the variance in team payroll. That means between 70% and 85% of a team's on-field success is explained by factors other than payroll. Those factors can include front office smarts, good team chemistry, player health, effective drafting and player development, intelligent trades, a manager's in-game decision-making, luck, and more. Wealthy teams do have an advantage, but it is not true that they can buy championships. Further, although the cries for parity among teams are loud, MLB has a good deal of competitive balance. Since 2004, 20 of baseball's 30 teams have made the playoffs. Since 1996, MLB has had a growing revenue-sharing plan and a luxury tax on teams with very high payrolls. In 2009, the Yankees will pay around $150 million into baseball's revenue-sharing and luxury-tax systems. The next biggest payor into these systems will contribute less than $90 million. These payments are shared with teams in smaller markets, such as the Tampa Bay Rays, Minnesota Twins and Colorado Rockies. One might as well argue that the Yankees bought these teams their playoff opportunities in 2008 and 2009. A cursory look at postseason television ratings should make it clear that it is in baseball's interest to have its popular teams from populous cities appear in the playoffs. Since there are more people in big-city markets, there are more fans who tune in when the big-city teams play. The fact that certain teams, such as the Yankees and Boston Red Sox, have very strong brands, due to their history and promotion, reinforces this tendency. Baseball still has some work to do, however, to ensure that there is more rotation of teams that find themselves at the bottom. One way would be to tweak revenue sharing to give small-market teams a stronger motivation to improve. A good opportunity will come in two years, when MLB negotiates its next collective bargaining agreement. Imperfect though it may be, baseball has a system, and the Yankees play by its rules. Its success this year depended significantly on the acquisition of pitchers A.J. Burnett and C.C. Sabbathia, along with first baseman Mark Teixeira. But the Yankees did not sign these players to one-year contracts (though the team did sign pitcher Andy Pettitte to a one-year deal). Mr. Sabbathia was great in 2009, but he is signed through 2015 when he will be 36 years old; Mr. Burnett through 2013 when he'll be 36; and Mr. Teixeira through 2016 when he'll be 37. Many of the team's other stars are also signed to long-term contracts. Third baseman Alex Rodriguez is signed through 2017 when he will be 42 and catcher Jorge Posada through 2011 when he'll be 40. It's possible that the positive correlation between payroll and success the Yankees experienced this year will turn into an inverse correlation. After all, player performance tends to wane with age. But these players have contracts that require the Yankees to increase their annual pay in the years ahead. Those salaries will weigh on the team's ability to acquire other players. Fortunately for Yankee fans and Yankee haters alike, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner doesn't seem to have any plans to help the team out. Mr. Zimbalist is an economics professor at Smith College --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Red Sox Citizens" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
