Is it possible the the NFL gives the illusion of parity because close to half the teams in the league make the playoffs?
On Tue, Nov 17, 2009 at 7:25 AM, <[email protected]> wrote: > So two-thirds of the teams in baseball have had a "good shot" at the World > Series over the past five years. How is this not parity? > > > On Nov 16, 2009 11:18pm, William Marino <[email protected]> wrote: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > This stat is misleading. Since the wild card, 8 teams make the playoffs a > year. Thus it is distribution of teams that take those spots that is > revealing. Take a look on wikipedia. High payroll teams are > disproportionately represented. There is not parity in baseball. The > Yankees didn't buy the WS. They bought the playoffs, again. This gave them > a good shot at the WS. > > > > > > > > Ray, your world view is safe. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > -----Original Message----- > > > > From: [email protected] [email protected]> > > > > To: [email protected] [email protected]> > > > > Sent: Mon Nov 16 21:25:34 2009 > > > > Subject: Like I was saying > > > > > > > > > > > > The Yankees Didn't Buy the World Series > > > > > > > > > > > > Since 2004, 20 of baseball's 30 teams have made the playoffs. > > > > > > > > > > > > By ANDREW ZIMBALIST > http://online.wsj.com/search/search_center.html?KEYWORDS=ANDREW+ZIMBALIST+&ARTICLESEARCHQUERY_PARSER=bylineAND > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Judging from the media coverage, it seems that the only thing the Yankees > didn't do on their way to buying the 2009 World Series is ask the federal > government for a bailout. But is it true that the Yankees bought their > trophy? Are the championship rings the players will take home simply a > byproduct of the largest payroll in Major League Baseball? And if so, how > come the Yankees haven't won the fall classic since 2000, even though the > franchise led the way in payroll each year and actually spent more last year > (when it missed the playoffs) than it did this year? > > > > > > > > It's a little surprising, but the statistical relationship between a > team's winning percentage and its payroll is not very high. When I plot > payroll and win percentage on the same graph, the two variables don't always > move together. In other words, knowing a team's payroll does not enable one > to know a team's win percentage. > > > > > > > > More precisely, depending on the year, I find somewhere between 15% and > 30% of the variance in team win percentage can be explained by the variance > in team payroll. That means between 70% and 85% of a team's on-field success > is explained by factors other than payroll. Those factors can include front > office smarts, good team chemistry, player health, effective drafting and > player development, intelligent trades, a manager's in-game decision-making, > luck, and more. > > > > > > > > Wealthy teams do have an advantage, but it is not true that they can buy > championships. Further, although the cries for parity among teams are loud, > MLB has a good deal of competitive balance. Since 2004, 20 of baseball's 30 > teams have made the playoffs. > > > > > > > > Since 1996, MLB has had a growing revenue-sharing plan and a luxury tax > on teams with very high payrolls. In 2009, the Yankees will pay around $150 > million into baseball's revenue-sharing and luxury-tax systems. The next > biggest payor into these systems will contribute less than $90 million. > These payments are shared with teams in smaller markets, such as the Tampa > Bay Rays, Minnesota Twins and Colorado Rockies. One might as well argue that > the Yankees bought these teams their playoff opportunities in 2008 and 2009. > > > > > > > > A cursory look at postseason television ratings should make it clear that > it is in baseball's interest to have its popular teams from populous cities > appear in the playoffs. Since there are more people in big-city markets, > there are more fans who tune in when the big-city teams play. The fact that > certain teams, such as the Yankees and Boston Red Sox, have very strong > brands, due to their history and promotion, reinforces this tendency. > > > > > > > > Baseball still has some work to do, however, to ensure that there is more > rotation of teams that find themselves at the bottom. One way would be to > tweak revenue sharing to give small-market teams a stronger motivation to > improve. A good opportunity will come in two years, when MLB negotiates its > next collective bargaining agreement. > > > > > > > > Imperfect though it may be, baseball has a system, and the Yankees play > by its rules. Its success this year depended significantly on the > acquisition of pitchers A.J. Burnett and C.C. Sabbathia, along with first > baseman Mark Teixeira. But the Yankees did not sign these players to > one-year contracts (though the team did sign pitcher Andy Pettitte to a > one-year deal). > > > > > > > > Mr. Sabbathia was great in 2009, but he is signed through 2015 when he > will be 36 years old; Mr. Burnett through 2013 when he'll be 36; and Mr. > Teixeira through 2016 when he'll be 37. Many of the team's other stars are > also signed to long-term contracts. Third baseman Alex Rodriguez is signed > through 2017 when he will be 42 and catcher Jorge Posada through 2011 when > he'll be 40. > > > > > > > > It's possible that the positive correlation between payroll and success > the Yankees experienced this year will turn into an inverse correlation. > After all, player performance tends to wane with age. But these players have > contracts that require the Yankees to increase their annual pay in the years > ahead. Those salaries will weigh on the team's ability to acquire other > players. > > > > > > > > Fortunately for Yankee fans and Yankee haters alike, Treasury Secretary > Timothy Geithner doesn't seem to have any plans to help the team out. > > > > > > > > Mr. Zimbalist is an economics professor at Smith College > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Red Sox Citizens" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
