OH DEAR GOD NOT THIS ARGUMENT AGAIN!!!
Where's my eye gouger!?! On Tue, Apr 27, 2010 at 1:46 PM, William Marino <[email protected]>wrote: > For those slavishly tied to models, this should really rock your world. > If you go back to the earlier discussion re: defense of Bay (and Ellsbury), > there was debate on over reliance on models. This is proof that pure stats > are no better than pure scout. All of it is data and the real value added > is in the interpretation of the data by people. > > > ------------------------------ > > *From:* [email protected] [mailto: > [email protected]] *On Behalf Of *Matt & Olga McSorley > *Sent:* Tuesday, April 27, 2010 10:50 AM > *To:* [email protected] > *Subject:* UZR boo-boo > > > > From today's Herald Red Sox blog. This is me feeling vindicated for > contending Jason Bay was not the lousy outfielder we were all told he was in > the off-season: > > > > -- Matt > *UZR owes Jason Bay an > apology<http://www.bostonherald.com/blogs/sports/red_sox/index.php/2010/04/27/uzr-owes-jason-bay-an-apology/> > * > > This slipped through the cracks, but the good folks at > *FanGraphs*<http://www.bostonherald.com/blogs/sports/red_sox/www.fangraphs.com>— > who are constantly tweaking their formulas in an effort to make them as > accurate as possible — recently tackled what many within the game considered > one of the biggest flaws of UZR, or Ultimate Zone Rating, which was treated > as Gospel this winter during all the discussions of defense around these > parts. > > That flaw was UZR’s inability to handle quirky parks like Fenway, where > left field and center field are of such strange configurations, they cannot > be judged with a cookie cutter model. > > It turns out that *Mitchel Lichtman*, the creator of UZR, agreed, so he > augmented his model to better gauge things like left field at Fenway, or > right field in Minnesota, or the entire outfield at Coors, as the *FanGraphs > people explain* <http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/uzr-updates>. > > The upshot of these changes is that most players were relatively > unaffected. However — and this is a big however — one player had his UZR > significantly altered by the fixes, which were retroactively applied to old > data: *Jason** Bay*. > > The former Red Sox outfielder, who was killed all winter for his horrendous > defense (which was part of the justification for letting him sign a free > agent deal with the Mets) saw his UZR shift from minus-13.8 runs to > plus-1.9. Bay’s play in 2009 obviously didn’t change. Only the numbers did. > And the new numbers say Bay was not horribly below average last year, but in > fact saved the Red Sox a couple of runs in left. > > It wouldn’t have made a difference as far as the Red Sox re-signing Bay — > we now know that was an impossibility once their deal collapsed at the > All-Star break over his medicals — but it would have at least changed the > narrative. Maybe fans and media members wouldn’t have been so quick to give > up on the biggest bat in the lineup if they hadn’t been able to lean on the > “he can’t play defense” crutch > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "Red Sox Citizens" group. > To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. > To unsubscribe from this group, send email to > [email protected]<redsoxcitizens%[email protected]> > . > For more options, visit this group at > http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "Red Sox Citizens" group. > To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. > To unsubscribe from this group, send email to > [email protected]<redsoxcitizens%[email protected]> > . > For more options, visit this group at > http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Red Sox Citizens" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en.
