Stats are useful and dangerous at the same time. ________________________________
From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Ray Salemi Sent: Tuesday, April 27, 2010 2:20 PM To: [email protected] Subject: Re: UZR boo-boo This gets to my basic argument that the Boston Sports Media are no more qualified to write about sports than you or me. I would love a job where I got to spout my pointless drivel and ill conceived theories and get paid for it. Ray On Tue, Apr 27, 2010 at 2:17 PM, Matt & Olga McSorley <[email protected]> wrote: > I'm sorry, guys. My thoughts when I sent this were actually more directed at > the Boston sports media, many of whom spouted the line that Jason Bay was a > poor outfielder because he had such a poor UZR rating, when we all knew > perfectly damn well not a one of them had the first clue what UZR is. This > spouting came a year and a half after the same media folk told us how > refreshing it was to have a left fielder who could play the position after > 7½ years of Manny being Manny. I really don't want to set off THAT argument > again... > > > ________________________________ > From: "Beaudoin, John" <[email protected]> > To: [email protected] > Sent: Tue, April 27, 2010 2:11:53 PM > Subject: RE: UZR boo-boo > > John who? > > -----Original Message----- > From: [email protected] > [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Ray Salemi > Sent: Tuesday, April 27, 2010 2:06 PM > To: [email protected] > Subject: Re: UZR boo-boo > > Models or no models, I was at Fenway, watched Dioner Navarro swing a > bat, and dropped him from my Roto team the very next day. > > On Tue, Apr 27, 2010 at 1:46 PM, William Marino <[email protected]> > wrote: >> For those slavishly tied to models, this should really rock your world. >> If >> you go back to the earlier discussion re: defense of Bay (and Ellsbury), >> there was debate on over reliance on models. This is proof that pure >> stats >> are no better than pure scout. All of it is data and the real value added >> is in the interpretation of the data by people. >> >> >> >> ________________________________ >> >> From: [email protected] >> [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Matt & Olga McSorley >> Sent: Tuesday, April 27, 2010 10:50 AM >> To: [email protected] >> Subject: UZR boo-boo >> >> >> >> From today's Herald Red Sox blog. This is me feeling vindicated for >> contending Jason Bay was not the lousy outfielder we were all told he was >> in >> the off-season: >> >> >> >> -- Matt >> >> UZR owes Jason Bay an apology >> >> This slipped through the cracks, but the good folks at FanGraphs - who are >> constantly tweaking their formulas in an effort to make them as accurate >> as >> possible - recently tackled what many within the game considered one of >> the >> biggest flaws of UZR, or Ultimate Zone Rating, which was treated as Gospel >> this winter during all the discussions of defense around these parts. >> >> That flaw was UZR's inability to handle quirky parks like Fenway, where >> left >> field and center field are of such strange configurations, they cannot be >> judged with a cookie cutter model. >> >> It turns out that Mitchel Lichtman, the creator of UZR, agreed, so he >> augmented his model to better gauge things like left field at Fenway, or >> right field in Minnesota, or the entire outfield at Coors, as the >> FanGraphs >> people explain. >> >> The upshot of these changes is that most players were relatively >> unaffected. >> However - and this is a big however - one player had his UZR significantly >> altered by the fixes, which were retroactively applied to old data: Jason >> Bay. >> >> The former Red Sox outfielder, who was killed all winter for his >> horrendous >> defense (which was part of the justification for letting him sign a free >> agent deal with the Mets) saw his UZR shift from minus-13.8 runs to >> plus-1.9. Bay's play in 2009 obviously didn't change. Only the numbers >> did. >> And the new numbers say Bay was not horribly below average last year, but >> in >> fact saved the Red Sox a couple of runs in left. >> >> It wouldn't have made a difference as far as the Red Sox re-signing Bay - >> we >> now know that was an impossibility once their deal collapsed at the >> All-Star >> break over his medicals - but it would have at least changed the >> narrative. >> Maybe fans and media members wouldn't have been so quick to give up on the >> biggest bat in the lineup if they hadn't been able to lean on the "he >> can't >> play defense" crutch >> >> -- >> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups >> "Red Sox Citizens" group. >> To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. >> To unsubscribe from this group, send email to >> [email protected] >> <mailto:redsoxcitizens%[email protected]> . >> For more options, visit this group at >> http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. >> >> -- >> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups >> "Red Sox Citizens" group. >> To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. >> To unsubscribe from this group, send email to >> [email protected] >> <mailto:redsoxcitizens%[email protected]> . >> For more options, visit this group at >> http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. >> > > > > -- > Author of "FPGA Simulation: A Complete Step-by-Step Guide" > www.fpgasimulation.com > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "Red Sox Citizens" group. > To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. > To unsubscribe from this group, send email to > [email protected] > <mailto:redsoxcitizens%[email protected]> . > For more options, visit this group at > http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "Red Sox Citizens" group. > To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. > To unsubscribe from this group, send email to > [email protected] > <mailto:redsoxcitizens%[email protected]> . > For more options, visit this group at > http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "Red Sox Citizens" group. > To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. > To unsubscribe from this group, send email to > [email protected] > <mailto:redsoxcitizens%[email protected]> . > For more options, visit this group at > http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. > -- Author of "FPGA Simulation: A Complete Step-by-Step Guide" www.fpgasimulation.com -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Red Sox Citizens" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Red Sox Citizens" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en.
