I think, Bill, that you're arguing against people that don't exist. Hence their silence.
I'm not a "models-only" guy. On Tue, Apr 27, 2010 at 2:06 PM, William Marino <[email protected]> wrote: > I took your silence as a stunned admission... > > John, where are you? I need back up! > > -----Original Message----- > From: [email protected] > [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Ray Salemi > Sent: Tuesday, April 27, 2010 2:04 PM > To: [email protected] > Subject: Re: UZR boo-boo > > You will notice my silence on the topic. > > ... > > oops. > > On Tue, Apr 27, 2010 at 2:01 PM, Tom Salemi <[email protected]> wrote: >> OH DEAR GOD NOT THIS ARGUMENT AGAIN!!! >> >> >> Where's my eye gouger!?! >> >> On Tue, Apr 27, 2010 at 1:46 PM, William Marino <[email protected]> >> wrote: >>> >>> For those slavishly tied to models, this should really rock your world. >>> If you go back to the earlier discussion re: defense of Bay (and Ellsbury), >>> there was debate on over reliance on models. This is proof that pure stats >>> are no better than pure scout. All of it is data and the real value added >>> is in the interpretation of the data by people. >>> >>> >>> >>> ________________________________ >>> >>> From: [email protected] >>> [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Matt & Olga McSorley >>> Sent: Tuesday, April 27, 2010 10:50 AM >>> To: [email protected] >>> Subject: UZR boo-boo >>> >>> >>> >>> From today's Herald Red Sox blog. This is me feeling vindicated for >>> contending Jason Bay was not the lousy outfielder we were all told he was in >>> the off-season: >>> >>> >>> >>> -- Matt >>> >>> UZR owes Jason Bay an apology >>> >>> This slipped through the cracks, but the good folks at FanGraphs - who are >>> constantly tweaking their formulas in an effort to make them as accurate as >>> possible - recently tackled what many within the game considered one of the >>> biggest flaws of UZR, or Ultimate Zone Rating, which was treated as Gospel >>> this winter during all the discussions of defense around these parts. >>> >>> That flaw was UZR's inability to handle quirky parks like Fenway, where >>> left field and center field are of such strange configurations, they cannot >>> be judged with a cookie cutter model. >>> >>> It turns out that Mitchel Lichtman, the creator of UZR, agreed, so he >>> augmented his model to better gauge things like left field at Fenway, or >>> right field in Minnesota, or the entire outfield at Coors, as the FanGraphs >>> people explain. >>> >>> The upshot of these changes is that most players were relatively >>> unaffected. However - and this is a big however - one player had his UZR >>> significantly altered by the fixes, which were retroactively applied to old >>> data: Jason Bay. >>> >>> The former Red Sox outfielder, who was killed all winter for his >>> horrendous defense (which was part of the justification for letting him sign >>> a free agent deal with the Mets) saw his UZR shift from minus-13.8 runs to >>> plus-1.9. Bay's play in 2009 obviously didn't change. Only the numbers did. >>> And the new numbers say Bay was not horribly below average last year, but in >>> fact saved the Red Sox a couple of runs in left. >>> >>> It wouldn't have made a difference as far as the Red Sox re-signing Bay - >>> we now know that was an impossibility once their deal collapsed at the >>> All-Star break over his medicals - but it would have at least changed the >>> narrative. Maybe fans and media members wouldn't have been so quick to give >>> up on the biggest bat in the lineup if they hadn't been able to lean on the >>> "he can't play defense" crutch >>> >>> -- >>> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups >>> "Red Sox Citizens" group. >>> To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. >>> To unsubscribe from this group, send email to >>> [email protected]. >>> For more options, visit this group at >>> http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. >>> >>> -- >>> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups >>> "Red Sox Citizens" group. >>> To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. >>> To unsubscribe from this group, send email to >>> [email protected]. >>> For more options, visit this group at >>> http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. >> >> -- >> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups >> "Red Sox Citizens" group. >> To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. >> To unsubscribe from this group, send email to >> [email protected]. >> For more options, visit this group at >> http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. >> > > > > -- > Author of "FPGA Simulation: A Complete Step-by-Step Guide" > www.fpgasimulation.com > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "Red Sox Citizens" group. > To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. > To unsubscribe from this group, send email to > [email protected]. > For more options, visit this group at > http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "Red Sox Citizens" group. > To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. > To unsubscribe from this group, send email to > [email protected]. > For more options, visit this group at > http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. > > -- Author of "FPGA Simulation: A Complete Step-by-Step Guide" www.fpgasimulation.com -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Red Sox Citizens" group. 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