Why are the realists pessimists?

You look at the talent available and project 95-96 wins.

I project five or six games fewer wins.

The difference is small enough to make this argument ridiculous.

On Wed, May 26, 2010 at 10:46 AM, Steve Ouellette
<[email protected]>wrote:

> Wait. Why are the pessimists the realists?
>
> I expect the Sox to win 95-96 games and make the playoffs, and I think I'm
> completely grounded in reasonableness.
>
> Steve O
>
>
> On Wed, May 26, 2010 at 10:35 AM, Ray Salemi <[email protected]> wrote:
>
>> 100%, baby!
>>
>> Oh, wait.
>>
>> Too late.
>>
>> Unless you're an optimists.  Then, anything's possible!
>>
>> On Wed, May 26, 2010 at 10:34 AM, Tom Salemi <[email protected]> wrote:
>>
>>> You're right, Bill.
>>>
>>> But I have no interest in betting against the Sox success. I'd like them
>>> to win 100.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> On Wed, May 26, 2010 at 10:09 AM, William Marino <[email protected]
>>> > wrote:
>>>
>>>>  This conversation is why wagering was invented…  Ray’s 91 games feels
>>>> about right. Starting pitching will be excellent by the end of June, but
>>>> shortstop and catcher are big holes.   I will reluctantly, though, take the
>>>> over—partly driven by the emotion of hope.  How about all the overs buy the
>>>> 91 and unders dinner at the end of the season?
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>  ------------------------------
>>>>
>>>> *From:* [email protected] [mailto:
>>>> [email protected]] *On Behalf Of *Steve Ouellette
>>>> *Sent:* Wednesday, May 26, 2010 12:03 AM
>>>> *To:* [email protected]
>>>>
>>>> *Subject:* Re: Nice Job, Lester....
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> I don't get what is so hard to believe. Their multiple ace pitching
>>>> staff has pitched way below expectations. Most likely they will return to
>>>> their proven level of competence (as Lester already has). Unless you 
>>>> believe
>>>> Baltimore and Cleveland will continue to outpitch them.
>>>>
>>>> And "has scored only more than pitiful Baltimore" is awfully
>>>> disingenuous. You could also have worded it "have scored the fifth most 
>>>> runs
>>>> in baseball" or "have scored exactly as many runs as the all-powerful Rays"
>>>> or "Are only six runs from being the highest scoring team in baseball."
>>>>
>>>> They're on pace for 89.5 wins despite having played terribly for much of
>>>> that stretch. To get to 95 wins they don't have to play .600 ball for a 
>>>> full
>>>> season, they only have to play it for 70 percent of a season. Last year 
>>>> they
>>>> played .584 for a full season. If you believed they were a 95 win team at
>>>> the start of this season (I don't know that you did), then why is that so
>>>> difficult a task?
>>>>
>>>> Anyway, my gripe isn't with people who don't believe they can win a
>>>> World Series -- a legitimate concern and an arguable point --  it was with
>>>> people who said they were already out of the race, which is inarguably
>>>> false.
>>>>
>>>> My gripe is also with Jacoby Ellsbury, who cost my fantasy team two
>>>> weeks of "day-to-day" zeroes, and appears ready to do it again ...
>>>>
>>>> STEVE
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>  On Tue, May 25, 2010 at 10:46 PM, Tom Salemi <[email protected]>
>>>> wrote:
>>>>
>>>> Wow, one game at a time.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Let me write that one down.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Got anything about giving 110%?
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> With more than one quarter of the season played, this run prevention
>>>> team has allowed the most runs in the division (second most in the league)
>>>> and scored only more than pitiful baltimore in the AL East
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> It currently stands in fourth place and is on pace to win 89.5 games.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Yet some feel we should be fitted for World Series rings.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> If it plays .600 ball for the rest of the year, it will win 95 games.
>>>> That's difficult to do. Only the Yankees played above .600 last year.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> But I concede it will "compete" for the playoffs, whatever that means.
>>>> But I don't think it's built to win a championship. I believe I'm a 
>>>> realist.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> If I'm wrong, great. I'd rather be wrong than right.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> On Tue, May 25, 2010 at 10:30 PM, Ray Salemi <[email protected]>
>>>> wrote:
>>>>
>>>> Almost on pace for 91.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Not quite yet.  But getting there.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> On Tue, May 25, 2010 at 10:04 PM, Beaudoin, John <
>>>> [email protected]> wrote:
>>>>
>>>> Eh-hem.
>>>> Any thoughts from the "rebuilding" crew?
>>>>
>>>> One game at a time
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>  ------------------------------
>>>>
>>>> *From*: [email protected] <
>>>> [email protected]>
>>>> *To*: [email protected] <[email protected]>
>>>>
>>>> *Sent*: Tue May 25 19:01:43 2010
>>>> *Subject*: Re: Nice Job, Lester....
>>>>
>>>> I thought they sent down Darnell McDonald.
>>>>
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>>
>>
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