I'm starting to like the idea of the 91 game over/under fun-bet. It will make things interesting in September.
On Wed, May 26, 2010 at 3:24 PM, Steve Ouellette <[email protected]>wrote: > I don't think you are factoring in a rebound. > > As Tom said, we're currently on pace for 89.5 wins. Your "rebound" would > mean they're only 1.5 games better over the remaining 70 percent of the > season than they are right now. > > Most of us, I think, would agree that the Sox pitching and defense should > be better this year -- No Penny and Smoltz, Lackey added in, Buchholz more > mature, Dice-K able to contribute. Is that fair? > > Currently, that better pitching is on pace to give up 796 runs, which would > have been fourth-worst in the AL last year. If the pitching is better than > last year, it's reasonable to expect the Sox to allow fewer than last year's > 736 runs -- yes? That means there is still a big correction coming. I'm > looking forward to it. > > Steve O > > > > > On Wed, May 26, 2010 at 1:30 PM, Ray Salemi <[email protected]> wrote: > >> I don't see it. >> >> There is all this talk about a rebound that will happen when "the >> pitching" turns around. But I think that rebound is being overestimated. >> For us to reach 91 will take a rebound, so I've factored that into account. >> >> I think part if it is that I consider a 95-win season to be a >> significantly more difficult task than a 91-win season. It's not linear in >> my mind, and that's how I derive my estimate. >> >> Ray >> >> On Wed, May 26, 2010 at 10:46 AM, Steve Ouellette < >> [email protected]> wrote: >> >>> Wait. Why are the pessimists the realists? >>> >>> I expect the Sox to win 95-96 games and make the playoffs, and I think >>> I'm completely grounded in reasonableness. >>> >>> Steve O >>> >>> >>> On Wed, May 26, 2010 at 10:35 AM, Ray Salemi <[email protected]> wrote: >>> >>>> 100%, baby! >>>> >>>> Oh, wait. >>>> >>>> Too late. >>>> >>>> Unless you're an optimists. Then, anything's possible! >>>> >>>> On Wed, May 26, 2010 at 10:34 AM, Tom Salemi <[email protected]>wrote: >>>> >>>>> You're right, Bill. >>>>> >>>>> But I have no interest in betting against the Sox success. I'd like >>>>> them to win 100. >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> On Wed, May 26, 2010 at 10:09 AM, William Marino < >>>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>>> >>>>>> This conversation is why wagering was invented… Ray’s 91 games >>>>>> feels about right. Starting pitching will be excellent by the end of >>>>>> June, >>>>>> but shortstop and catcher are big holes. I will reluctantly, though, >>>>>> take >>>>>> the over—partly driven by the emotion of hope. How about all the overs >>>>>> buy >>>>>> the 91 and unders dinner at the end of the season? >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> ------------------------------ >>>>>> >>>>>> *From:* [email protected] [mailto: >>>>>> [email protected]] *On Behalf Of *Steve Ouellette >>>>>> *Sent:* Wednesday, May 26, 2010 12:03 AM >>>>>> *To:* [email protected] >>>>>> >>>>>> *Subject:* Re: Nice Job, Lester.... >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> I don't get what is so hard to believe. Their multiple ace pitching >>>>>> staff has pitched way below expectations. Most likely they will return to >>>>>> their proven level of competence (as Lester already has). Unless you >>>>>> believe >>>>>> Baltimore and Cleveland will continue to outpitch them. >>>>>> >>>>>> And "has scored only more than pitiful Baltimore" is awfully >>>>>> disingenuous. You could also have worded it "have scored the fifth most >>>>>> runs >>>>>> in baseball" or "have scored exactly as many runs as the all-powerful >>>>>> Rays" >>>>>> or "Are only six runs from being the highest scoring team in baseball." >>>>>> >>>>>> They're on pace for 89.5 wins despite having played terribly for much >>>>>> of that stretch. To get to 95 wins they don't have to play .600 ball for >>>>>> a >>>>>> full season, they only have to play it for 70 percent of a season. Last >>>>>> year >>>>>> they played .584 for a full season. If you believed they were a 95 win >>>>>> team >>>>>> at the start of this season (I don't know that you did), then why is >>>>>> that so >>>>>> difficult a task? >>>>>> >>>>>> Anyway, my gripe isn't with people who don't believe they can win a >>>>>> World Series -- a legitimate concern and an arguable point -- it was >>>>>> with >>>>>> people who said they were already out of the race, which is inarguably >>>>>> false. >>>>>> >>>>>> My gripe is also with Jacoby Ellsbury, who cost my fantasy team two >>>>>> weeks of "day-to-day" zeroes, and appears ready to do it again ... >>>>>> >>>>>> STEVE >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> On Tue, May 25, 2010 at 10:46 PM, Tom Salemi <[email protected]> >>>>>> wrote: >>>>>> >>>>>> Wow, one game at a time. >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> Let me write that one down. >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> Got anything about giving 110%? >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> With more than one quarter of the season played, this run prevention >>>>>> team has allowed the most runs in the division (second most in the >>>>>> league) >>>>>> and scored only more than pitiful baltimore in the AL East >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> It currently stands in fourth place and is on pace to win 89.5 games. >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> Yet some feel we should be fitted for World Series rings. >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> If it plays .600 ball for the rest of the year, it will win 95 games. >>>>>> That's difficult to do. Only the Yankees played above .600 last year. >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> But I concede it will "compete" for the playoffs, whatever that means. >>>>>> But I don't think it's built to win a championship. I believe I'm a >>>>>> realist. >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> If I'm wrong, great. I'd rather be wrong than right. >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> On Tue, May 25, 2010 at 10:30 PM, Ray Salemi <[email protected]> >>>>>> wrote: >>>>>> >>>>>> Almost on pace for 91. >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> Not quite yet. But getting there. >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> On Tue, May 25, 2010 at 10:04 PM, Beaudoin, John < >>>>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>>>> >>>>>> Eh-hem. >>>>>> Any thoughts from the "rebuilding" crew? >>>>>> >>>>>> One game at a time >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> ------------------------------ >>>>>> >>>>>> *From*: [email protected] < >>>>>> [email protected]> >>>>>> *To*: [email protected] < >>>>>> [email protected]> >>>>>> *Sent*: Tue May 25 19:01:43 2010 >>>>>> *Subject*: Re: Nice Job, Lester.... >>>>>> >>>>>> I thought they sent down Darnell McDonald. >>>>>> >>>>>> -- >>>>>> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google >>>>>> Groups "Red Sox Citizens" group. >>>>>> To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. >>>>>> To unsubscribe from this group, send email to >>>>>> [email protected]<redsoxcitizens%[email protected]> >>>>>> . >>>>>> For more options, visit this group at >>>>>> http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. >>>>>> >>>>>> -- >>>>>> You 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