I don't think you are factoring in a rebound. As Tom said, we're currently on pace for 89.5 wins. Your "rebound" would mean they're only 1.5 games better over the remaining 70 percent of the season than they are right now.
Most of us, I think, would agree that the Sox pitching and defense should be better this year -- No Penny and Smoltz, Lackey added in, Buchholz more mature, Dice-K able to contribute. Is that fair? Currently, that better pitching is on pace to give up 796 runs, which would have been fourth-worst in the AL last year. If the pitching is better than last year, it's reasonable to expect the Sox to allow fewer than last year's 736 runs -- yes? That means there is still a big correction coming. I'm looking forward to it. Steve O On Wed, May 26, 2010 at 1:30 PM, Ray Salemi <[email protected]> wrote: > I don't see it. > > There is all this talk about a rebound that will happen when "the pitching" > turns around. But I think that rebound is being overestimated. For us to > reach 91 will take a rebound, so I've factored that into account. > > I think part if it is that I consider a 95-win season to be a significantly > more difficult task than a 91-win season. It's not linear in my mind, and > that's how I derive my estimate. > > Ray > > On Wed, May 26, 2010 at 10:46 AM, Steve Ouellette <[email protected] > > wrote: > >> Wait. Why are the pessimists the realists? >> >> I expect the Sox to win 95-96 games and make the playoffs, and I think I'm >> completely grounded in reasonableness. >> >> Steve O >> >> >> On Wed, May 26, 2010 at 10:35 AM, Ray Salemi <[email protected]> wrote: >> >>> 100%, baby! >>> >>> Oh, wait. >>> >>> Too late. >>> >>> Unless you're an optimists. Then, anything's possible! >>> >>> On Wed, May 26, 2010 at 10:34 AM, Tom Salemi <[email protected]>wrote: >>> >>>> You're right, Bill. >>>> >>>> But I have no interest in betting against the Sox success. I'd like them >>>> to win 100. >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> On Wed, May 26, 2010 at 10:09 AM, William Marino < >>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>> >>>>> This conversation is why wagering was invented… Ray’s 91 games feels >>>>> about right. Starting pitching will be excellent by the end of June, but >>>>> shortstop and catcher are big holes. I will reluctantly, though, take >>>>> the >>>>> over—partly driven by the emotion of hope. How about all the overs buy >>>>> the >>>>> 91 and unders dinner at the end of the season? >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> ------------------------------ >>>>> >>>>> *From:* [email protected] [mailto: >>>>> [email protected]] *On Behalf Of *Steve Ouellette >>>>> *Sent:* Wednesday, May 26, 2010 12:03 AM >>>>> *To:* [email protected] >>>>> >>>>> *Subject:* Re: Nice Job, Lester.... >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> I don't get what is so hard to believe. Their multiple ace pitching >>>>> staff has pitched way below expectations. Most likely they will return to >>>>> their proven level of competence (as Lester already has). Unless you >>>>> believe >>>>> Baltimore and Cleveland will continue to outpitch them. >>>>> >>>>> And "has scored only more than pitiful Baltimore" is awfully >>>>> disingenuous. You could also have worded it "have scored the fifth most >>>>> runs >>>>> in baseball" or "have scored exactly as many runs as the all-powerful >>>>> Rays" >>>>> or "Are only six runs from being the highest scoring team in baseball." >>>>> >>>>> They're on pace for 89.5 wins despite having played terribly for much >>>>> of that stretch. To get to 95 wins they don't have to play .600 ball for a >>>>> full season, they only have to play it for 70 percent of a season. Last >>>>> year >>>>> they played .584 for a full season. If you believed they were a 95 win >>>>> team >>>>> at the start of this season (I don't know that you did), then why is that >>>>> so >>>>> difficult a task? >>>>> >>>>> Anyway, my gripe isn't with people who don't believe they can win a >>>>> World Series -- a legitimate concern and an arguable point -- it was with >>>>> people who said they were already out of the race, which is inarguably >>>>> false. >>>>> >>>>> My gripe is also with Jacoby Ellsbury, who cost my fantasy team two >>>>> weeks of "day-to-day" zeroes, and appears ready to do it again ... >>>>> >>>>> STEVE >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> On Tue, May 25, 2010 at 10:46 PM, Tom Salemi <[email protected]> >>>>> wrote: >>>>> >>>>> Wow, one game at a time. >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> Let me write that one down. >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> Got anything about giving 110%? >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> With more than one quarter of the season played, this run prevention >>>>> team has allowed the most runs in the division (second most in the league) >>>>> and scored only more than pitiful baltimore in the AL East >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> It currently stands in fourth place and is on pace to win 89.5 games. >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> Yet some feel we should be fitted for World Series rings. >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> If it plays .600 ball for the rest of the year, it will win 95 games. >>>>> That's difficult to do. Only the Yankees played above .600 last year. >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> But I concede it will "compete" for the playoffs, whatever that means. >>>>> But I don't think it's built to win a championship. I believe I'm a >>>>> realist. >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> If I'm wrong, great. I'd rather be wrong than right. >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> On Tue, May 25, 2010 at 10:30 PM, Ray Salemi <[email protected]> >>>>> wrote: >>>>> >>>>> Almost on pace for 91. >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> Not quite yet. But getting there. >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> On Tue, May 25, 2010 at 10:04 PM, Beaudoin, John < >>>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>>> >>>>> Eh-hem. >>>>> Any thoughts from the "rebuilding" crew? >>>>> >>>>> One game at a time >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> ------------------------------ >>>>> >>>>> *From*: [email protected] < >>>>> [email protected]> >>>>> *To*: [email protected] <[email protected]> >>>>> >>>>> *Sent*: Tue May 25 19:01:43 2010 >>>>> *Subject*: Re: Nice Job, Lester.... >>>>> >>>>> I thought they sent down Darnell McDonald. >>>>> >>>>> -- >>>>> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google >>>>> Groups "Red Sox Citizens" group. >>>>> To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. >>>>> To unsubscribe from this group, send email to >>>>> [email protected]<redsoxcitizens%[email protected]> >>>>> . >>>>> For more options, visit this group at >>>>> http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. >>>>> >>>>> -- >>>>> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google >>>>> Groups "Red Sox Citizens" group. >>>>> To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. >>>>> To unsubscribe from this group, send email to >>>>> [email protected]<redsoxcitizens%[email protected]> >>>>> . >>>>> For more options, visit this group at >>>>> http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> -- >>>>> Author of "FPGA Simulation: A Complete Step-by-Step Guide" >>>>> www.fpgasimulation.com >>>>> >>>>> -- >>>>> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google >>>>> Groups "Red Sox Citizens" group. >>>>> To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. >>>>> To unsubscribe from this group, send email to >>>>> [email protected]<redsoxcitizens%[email protected]> >>>>> . >>>>> For more options, visit this group at >>>>> http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> -- >>>>> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google >>>>> Groups "Red Sox Citizens" group. >>>>> To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. >>>>> To unsubscribe from this group, send email to >>>>> [email protected]<redsoxcitizens%[email protected]> >>>>> . >>>>> For more options, visit this group at >>>>> http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> -- >>>>> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google >>>>> Groups "Red Sox Citizens" group. >>>>> To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. >>>>> To unsubscribe from this group, send email to >>>>> [email protected]<redsoxcitizens%[email protected]> >>>>> . >>>>> For more options, visit this group at >>>>> http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. >>>>> >>>>> -- >>>>> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google >>>>> Groups "Red Sox Citizens" group. >>>>> To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. >>>>> To unsubscribe from this group, send email to >>>>> [email protected]<redsoxcitizens%[email protected]> >>>>> . >>>>> For more options, visit this group at >>>>> http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. >>>>> >>>> >>>> -- >>>> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google >>>> Groups "Red Sox Citizens" group. >>>> To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. >>>> To unsubscribe from this group, send email to >>>> [email protected]<redsoxcitizens%[email protected]> >>>> . >>>> For more options, visit this group at >>>> http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. >>>> >>> >>> >>> >>> -- >>> Author of "FPGA Simulation: A Complete Step-by-Step Guide" >>> www.fpgasimulation.com >>> >>> >>> -- >>> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups >>> "Red Sox Citizens" group. >>> To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. >>> To unsubscribe from this group, send email to >>> [email protected]<redsoxcitizens%[email protected]> >>> . >>> For more options, visit this group at >>> http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. >>> >> >> -- >> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups >> "Red Sox Citizens" group. >> To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. >> To unsubscribe from this group, send email to >> [email protected]<redsoxcitizens%[email protected]> >> . >> For more options, visit this group at >> http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. >> > > > > -- > Author of "FPGA Simulation: A Complete Step-by-Step Guide" > www.fpgasimulation.com > > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "Red Sox Citizens" group. > To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. > To unsubscribe from this group, send email to > [email protected]<redsoxcitizens%[email protected]> > . > For more options, visit this group at > http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google 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