Re: Genesis
Kevin B. O'Brien wrote: Rising energy costs will probably cause a few problems, but I don't see how Bush or Cheney for all their failings can be blamed for that particular problem. I'm thinking that causing massive instability in the major oil producing region might have something to do with it. When you add in determined opposition to any form of conservation, I think most of it is covered. Removing one megalomaniac old dictator and his two psychopath heirs is _causing_ massive instability? I think it's the other way: it's _preventing_ massive instability. And what are those two idiots doing, that the oil price fell down so much in the past weeks? They should strike Iran right now! Alberto Monteiro ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Conspiracy theories
And what are those two idiots doing, that the oil price fell down so much in the past weeks? They should strike Iran right now! Alberto Monteiro fortunately those two idiots have lost all credibility and could not pull off a strike against iran at this time (unless they get lucky and there is another major terrorist attack in the u.s. before november). personally, i don't think bush/cheney know what they are doing. if i did i would have to subscribe to one of the conspiracy theories: http://www.popmatters.com/features/021227-conspiracy.shtml jon ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: Conspiracy theories
Jon Louis Mann wrote: And what are those two idiots doing, that the oil price fell down so much in the past weeks? They should strike Iran right now! Alberto Monteiro fortunately those two idiots have lost all credibility and could not pull off a strike against iran at this time (unless they get lucky and there is another major terrorist attack in the u.s. before november). personally, i don't think bush/cheney know what they are doing. if i did i would have to subscribe to one of the conspiracy theories: http://www.popmatters.com/features/021227-conspiracy.shtml I think they no exactly what they are doing: Trying to shovel as much money into their friend's pockets as possible, and/or trying to bring about the Dominionist's desire for an early Apocolypse. --[Lance] -- GPG Fingerprint: 409B A409 A38D 92BF 15D9 6EEE 9A82 F2AC 69AC 07B9 CACert.org Assurer ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Amusing quiz
http://www.infoworld.com/tools/quiz/news/2008/programmingiqtest/programming-iq-quiz-1.php Your score is 80. Of the 53 people who have completed the test so far, 2 scored higher and 51 scored the same or lower. Forgetful Maru -- William T Goodall Mail : [EMAIL PROTECTED] Web : http://www.wtgab.demon.co.uk Blog : http://radio.weblogs.com/0111221/ There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance - Steve Ballmer ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Conspiracy theories
fortunately those two idiots have lost all credibility and could not pull off a strike against iran at this time (unless they get lucky and there is another major terrorist attack in the u.s. before november). personally, i don't think bush/cheney know what they are doing. if i did i would have to subscribe to one of the conspiracy theories: http://www.popmatters.com/features/021227-conspiracy.shtml jon I think they no exactly what they are doing: Trying to shovel as much money into their friend's pockets as possible, and/or trying to bring about the Dominionist's desire for an early Apocalypse. --[Lance] you are right about bushco using his presidency to enrich his cronies, lance, but i doubt he comprehends what an enormous deleterious effect his policies have had on the global economy. it is costing trillions so halliburton and others can make billions. as for dominion theology, bush panders to the religious right up to a point but he in his heart he is no x-tian and holds many of their values in contempt. ronald reagan, however, was a believer: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dominionism ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
RE: Conspiracy theories
-Original Message- From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Jon Louis Mann Sent: Monday, July 28, 2008 1:10 PM To: Killer Bs (David Brin et al) Discussion you are right about bushco using his presidency to enrich his cronies, lance, but i doubt he comprehends what an enormous deleterious effect his policies have had on the global economy. it is costing trillions so halliburton and others can make billions. I'm not quite sure how that follows. If you look at 2000 vs. 2008, the big drop in OPEC oil production was in Venezuela...which is a result of Chavez's actions, not Bush's. Iraq is close to the 2000 level of production. Other countries have increased production. Oil is higher, not because production hasn't risen, but because demand has exploded. Over the last year, the US demand for oil has dropped about 3.5%, while the demand in the rest of the world has risen 2.7%. Overall, that's about a 0.6% increase. During that time, prices have gone through the roof. There is ample evidence that US demand is cooling, but no convincing evidence that demand is cooling in the rest of the world. Unless oil prices go way back down (say $30/barrel), I expect US demand to continue to drop. If oil prices go back to the $75-$100/barrel range, then that drop would be slowed, but would still occur. China, on the other hand, is in a position where energy consumption and GDP are strongly tied. If oil goes below $100/barrel (note, the drop in the dollar is part of the rise in US cost, the rise in oil prices for the EU over the last 5 years or so is about 35% less than it is for the US), then I think that they will continue to have explosive demand. GWB has made a mess of taxes and government spending and oversight, but, the forces involved in the housing bubble had manifested themselves elsewhere twice on Clinton's watch (the Asian bubble and the Internet bubble). So, a competent president could have done much better, but the problem of, to use an extreme case, Californian house prices being far out of reach for the average person is not the result of GWB. Other factors dominate there...as they did in other places. So, as much as I consider GWB a bumbling idiot, I don't think that every mess is his fault. Dan M. ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: Genesis
Doug Pensinger wrote: Kevin wrote: Wayne Eddy wrote: Rising energy costs will probably cause a few problems, but I don't see how Bush or Cheney for all their failings can be blamed for that particular problem. I'm thinking that causing massive instability in the major oil producing region might have something to do with it. When you add in determined opposition to any form of conservation, I think most of it is covered. Let's not forget a total lack of vision when it comes to energy policy. Doug Agreed. And after I posted it I thought more carefully about it, and decided that I really had to add disastrous fiscal policy leading to a plummeting dollar. That not only has driven up oil prices (in dollar terms), but has led OPEC countries to start the move away from selling in dollars to other currencies, like the Euro. Regards, -- Kevin B. O'Brien TANSTAAFL [EMAIL PROTECTED] Linux User #333216 May we never confuse honest dissent with disloyal subversion. - Dwight D. Eisenhower ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Conspiracy theories
you are right about bush-co using his presidency to enrich his cronies, lance, but i doubt he comprehends what an enormous deleterious effect his policies have had on the global economy. it is costing trillions so halliburton and others can make billions. I'm not quite sure how that follows. If you look at 2000 vs. 2008, the big drop in OPEC oil production was in Venezuela...which is a result of Chavez's actions, not Bush's. Iraq is close to the 2000 level of production. Other countries have increased production. Oil is higher, not because production hasn't risen, but because demand has exploded. Over the last year, the US demand for oil has dropped about 3.5%, while the demand in the rest of the world has risen 2.7%. Overall, that's about a 0.6% increase. During that time, prices have gone through the roof. There is ample evidence that US demand is cooling, but no convincing evidence that demand is cooling in the rest of the world. Unless oil prices go way back down (say $30/barrel), I expect US demand to continue to drop. If oil prices go back to the $75-$100/barrel range, then that drop would be slowed, but would still occur. China, on the other hand, is in a position where energy consumption and GDP are strongly tied. If oil goes below $100/barrel (note, the drop in the dollar is part of the rise in US cost, the rise in oil prices for the EU over the last 5 years or so is about 35% less than it is for the US), then I think that they will continue to have explosive demand. GWB has made a mess of taxes and government spending and oversight, but, the forces involved in the housing bubble had manifested themselves elsewhere twice on Clinton's watch (the Asian bubble and the Internet bubble). So, a competent president could have done much better, but the problem of, to use an extreme case, Californian house prices being far out of reach for the average person is not the result of GWB. Other factors dominate there...as they did in other places. So, as much as I consider GWB a bumbling idiot, I don't think that every mess is his fault. Dan M. no one is saying that EVERY mess is the idiot's fault, but his policies have had a catastophic effect, and not just the price of oil. although the initial invasion of iraq did greatly reduce the production of oil or some time. i don't think iraq has recovered to pre-war production levels, despite the claims that the surge succeeded and al qaeda is on the run. al qaeda is resurging in afghanistan and pakistan, and has been recruiting around the world. you can't deny that terrorism is on the rise as a result of bush's policies, even though he is finally starting to be less dogmatic and more pragmatic in the waning days of his presidency. jon. ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: Genesis
Alberto Monteiro wrote: Kevin B. O'Brien wrote: Rising energy costs will probably cause a few problems, but I don't see how Bush or Cheney for all their failings can be blamed for that particular problem. I'm thinking that causing massive instability in the major oil producing region might have something to do with it. When you add in determined opposition to any form of conservation, I think most of it is covered. Removing one megalomaniac old dictator and his two psychopath heirs is _causing_ massive instability? I think it's the other way: it's _preventing_ massive instability. There is a certain stability in the grave, to be sure. But I don't think that is what most people want. And what are those two idiots doing, that the oil price fell down so much in the past weeks? They should strike Iran right now! Those two idiots, with able assistance from Republicans in Congress, have managed to screw up the American economy so badly that demand is falling. That does have the effect of putting downward pressure on gas prices, which should be received with great joy by all the Americans who lost their jobs, their homes, ... Regards, -- Kevin B. O'Brien TANSTAAFL [EMAIL PROTECTED] Linux User #333216 The penalty for laughing in a courtroom is six months in jail; if it were not for this penalty, the jury would never hear the evidence. - H.L. Mencken ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: Conspiracy theories
Dan M wrote: So, as much as I consider GWB a bumbling idiot, I don't think that every mess is his fault. Theoretically I agree, but it is hard to think of any mess that he *hasn't* had his fingers in during the last 7.5 years. Regards, -- Kevin B. O'Brien TANSTAAFL [EMAIL PROTECTED] Linux User #333216 He knows nothing, and thinks he knows everything. That points clearly to a political career. -- George Bernard Shaw ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: Conspiracy theories
Jon Louis Mann wrote: you can't deny that terrorism is on the rise as a result of bush's policies, (...) Hmmm... Not in my backyard... The FARC (in Colombia, which, geographilly, are probably closer to you than to me) are almost dead. With them, the last terrorist group in South America vanishes. Alberto Monteiro ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Bushco
Let's not forget a total lack of vision when it comes to energy policy. Doug Agreed. And after I posted it I thought more carefully about it, and decided that I really had to add disastrous fiscal policy leading to a plummeting dollar. That not only has driven up oil prices (in dollar terms), but has led OPEC countries to start the move away from selling in dollars to other currencies, like the Euro. Regards, -- Kevin B. O'Brien wasn't saddam was already considering changing to the euro standard, which was one (1) of the reasons we invaded that hasn't been recognized. that certainly contributed to why france and germany were so adamant against the invasion, because it would benefit europe if the price of gas in europe and america were to be more equitable. bush's fiscal policies had a lot more impact than reactionaries like to admit. bush's response to katrina, for example, is another of his many disastrous fubars that will be felt for a long time. jon ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: Genesis
- Original Message - From: Kevin B. O'Brien [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: Killer Bs (David Brin et al) Discussion brin-l@mccmedia.com Sent: Monday, July 28, 2008 8:10 AM Subject: Re: Genesis Wayne Eddy wrote: Rising energy costs will probably cause a few problems, but I don't see how Bush or Cheney for all their failings can be blamed for that particular problem. I'm thinking that causing massive instability in the major oil producing region might have something to do with it. When you add in determined opposition to any form of conservation, I think most of it is covered. That may have pushed up oil prices by $20 a barrel or so, but it has nothing to do with the underlying problem of finite oil supplies and growing world demand. If anything it might turn out to be a positive - forcing the world to consider its energy future a few years earlier than otherwise. I reckon a hike in the price of oil is trival compared to the deaths and maiming of thosands of Americans and hundreds of thousands of Iraqis in the name of non-existant weapons of mass destruction. And, I still want to no what global catastrophe Jon was talking about! Regards, Wayne. ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Poetic justice
Those two idiots, with able assistance from Republicans in Congress, have managed to screw up the American economy so badly that demand is falling. That does have the effect of putting downward pressure on gas prices, which should be received with great joy by all the Americans who lost their jobs, their homes, ... Regards, -- Kevin B. O'Brien i am one of those americans who lost my job, but fortunately my mortgage is paid up. i was not foolish enough to take on a mortgage with balloon payments, and was fortunate to be able to buy before the bubble. even though i lost my job, i will be able to survive starting over at the bottom of the pay scale because i don't live beyond my means. what is happening to many americans is just deserts for living high off the hog for so long. it is time to respect the planet, and pay the piper for materialistic excess. i don't miss driving my car, and riding my bicycle is far better for my health, anyway. jon ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: Conspiracy theories
On 29/07/2008, at 4:10 AM, Jon Louis Mann wrote: you are right about bushco using his presidency to enrich his cronies, lance, but i doubt he comprehends what an enormous deleterious effect his policies have had on the global economy. The global economy is still growing at 4%. As I have said before, the assertion that the USA is the world's engineroom is no longer true. An American crash or collapse might slow the rest of the world, but it won't plunge the rest of the world into recession necessarily any more. Charlie. ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
RE: Poetic justice
I have been trying to live within my means. In May my car needed $2,000 worth of repairs. June my vet bill ran over $600. This month the plumber is at my house roto-rooting the main line and the line between the sink and the washing machine. I could, of course, cut down the tree whose roots are in the line (MORE expense) and give away the cats. Except that they're not property; they are living beings in my care. Sigh. 'Taint always easy. http://idiotgrrl.livejournal.com/ Date: Mon, 28 Jul 2008 15:03:13 -0700 From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: Poetic justice To: brin-l@mccmedia.com Those two idiots, with able assistance from Republicans in Congress, have managed to screw up the American economy so badly that demand is falling. That does have the effect of putting downward pressure on gas prices, which should be received with great joy by all the Americans who lost their jobs, their homes, ... Regards, -- Kevin B. O'Brien i am one of those americans who lost my job, but fortunately my mortgage is paid up. i was not foolish enough to take on a mortgage with balloon payments, and was fortunate to be able to buy before the bubble. even though i lost my job, i will be able to survive starting over at the bottom of the pay scale because i don't live beyond my means. what is happening to many americans is just deserts for living high off the hog for so long. it is time to respect the planet, and pay the piper for materialistic excess. i don't miss driving my car, and riding my bicycle is far better for my health, anyway. jon ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
global catastrophe
Rising energy costs will probably cause a few problems, but I don't see how Bush or Cheney for all their failings can be blamed for that particular problem. I'm thinking that causing massive instability in the major oil producing region might have something to do with it. When you add in determined opposition to any form of conservation, I think most of it is covered. That may have pushed up oil prices by $20 a barrel or so, but it has nothing to do with the underlying problem of finite oil supplies and growing world demand. If anything it might turn out to be a positive - forcing the world to consider its energy future a few years earlier than otherwise. I reckon a hike in the price of oil is trivial compared to the deaths and maiming of thousands of Americans and hundreds of thousands of Iraqis in the name of non-existent weapons of mass destruction. I want to know what global catastrophe Jon was talking about! Regards, Wayne. the same old end of the world as we know it scenario, wayne; war, famine, pestilence and death. the four horsemen of the apocalypse, armageddon, ragnarok, doomsday, global warming, collapse of civilization, etc. it is still possible to slow it down, maybe even halt it, but under bush-co we have been hastening the end times. the bush/cheney policies have had a major impact on the global economy, not that the spread of materialism in asia is to be discounted. jon jon ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
It ain't easy when you're goin' down
I have been trying to live within my means. In May my car needed $2,000 worth of repairs. June my vet bill ran over $600. This month the plumber is at my house roto-rooting the main line and the line between the sink and the washing machine. I could, of course, cut down the tree whose roots are in the line (MORE expense) and give away the cats. Except that they're not property; they are living beings in my care. Sigh. 'Taint always easy. http://idiotgrrl.livejournal.com/ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nIJ5LuwrPMM 3 Dog Night - (R.Davies) When you go up on the mountain top And you look out across the sea And you know there's another place perhaps A young man can be And you jump down to the rooftop And you look out across the town And you know there's a lot of strange things Circulatin' round But it ain't easy, It ain't easy, it ain't easy To go ahead when your going' down Well, the people have their problems But that ain't nothing new Well the hope and understanding Can bring you on through Well it can bring you on through It can take you to the end And that, ooh, woman, she can bring you down again But it ain't easy, It ain't easy, it ain't easy To go ahead when your going' down Satisfaction, satisfaction, tell me who is satisfied When she, ooh, she take it in And she hold it deep inside And she hold it in too deep And she bite it with her teeth And that, ooh woman, she can give you some relief But it ain't easy, It ain't easy, it ain't easy To go ahead when your going' down It ain't easy when you're goin' down ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Global Economy
you are right about bushco using his presidency to enrich his cronies, lance, but i doubt he comprehends what an enormous deleterious effect his policies have had on the global economy. The global economy is still growing at 4%. As I have said before, the assertion that the USA is the world's engineroom is no longer true. An American crash or collapse might slow the rest of the world, but it won't plunge the rest of the world into recession necessarily any more. Charlie. indeed. globalization has changed world trade so that nations are interdepenent. the fact that the global economy is still growing will impact on the american economy. it is time for america to reduce our slice and share the pie with developing countries, thus putting increasing strain on global resurces... jon ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
RE: Conspiracy theories
no one is saying that EVERY mess is the idiot's fault, but his policies have had a catastophic effect, and not just the price of oil. although the initial invasion of iraq did greatly reduce the production of oil or some time. i don't think iraq has recovered to pre-war production levels, despite the claims that the surge succeeded and al qaeda is on the run. If not, the difference is in the fraction of a percent level of world oil production (a couple of hundred thousand of barrels/day). AQ overplayed its hand in Iraq and Sunni movement turned against it. Maliki has outmaneuvered Sadrat least for the moment. Reporters who've been stationed in Iraq for the duration, said things were close to a civil war a year ago now say things are much better. al qaeda is resurging in afghanistan and pakistan, and has been recruiting around the world. you can't deny that terrorism is on the rise as a result of bush's policies, even though he is finally starting to be less dogmatic and more pragmatic in the waning days of his presidency. Well, the death tool in Iraq is way down from last year, by just about everyone's measure. There have been a few big blasts, but nothing compared to the spiral of violence we saw last year in Iraq. Just about everyone is surprised at how much the violence fell. In many ways, it is due to AQ indiscriminately killing Muslims, as their second-in-command in Iraq warned...as well as the show killings. Bush's blunder's in Iraq were staggering, as well as his blunders in the US. Still, between good luck and Petraus's skill, we are not on the edge of chaos and civil war in Iraq. Things are better now for people in Iraq than before we invaded. Remember, had to intervene militarily for over a decade to mitigate the slaughter by Hussein before the war. Even so, he killed and tortured tens of thousands of his own citizens every year. There is now a chance that a government that is moderate by Arab standards will be Cheney, Rumsfeld and Bush share responsibility for a multitude of deaths that could have been prevented by having the US folks who are now running things doing it from the beginning. (actually, if that were true, Rumsfeld wouldn't have been SecDef). But, if we didn't invade (as I had advocated here 5.5 years ago in Brin-L's debates), we'd be better off, but things would still be very problematic. For example, the oil crisis would not be much different. It is not due to a minute drop in Iraq's output. It is due to the big rise in demand. Even as the price rose, demand rose with it. But, it was non-US demand. From the 2000 to the first quarter of 2008, the US increased its demand by 0.9%; while the world increased its demand by 11%. The biggest drop in supply came from Venezuela, where Chavez's insistence that his lackeys (not the union oil workers who ran things before) run things, because their oil fields are in the process of being ruined. If you look at the latest figures from: www.eia.doe.gov you will find that the US oil demand is falling. We are buying far fewer trucks and SUVs (which will have a long term impact) and mileage driven is falling too. But, a drop in world consumption is not noted. I'd expect it to continue to increase as long as oil doesn't skyrocket from the present 80 Euros/barreleven if the dollar continues to fall. If oil falls back to last year's levels, then I'd expect consumption increases like we've seen over the past 5 years to continue. So, the fundamentals of the oil crisis are independent of Bush: world demand is rising fast, due to the rapid growth of emerging economies. Non-fundamentals, such as today's fear based increase due to Iran being further along the path of obtaining a nuclear bomb do produce spikes...and enough fact based fear can produce a longer term trend, but, over multi-year periodsits the law of supply and the law of demand that prevail. We lost control of supply...which started the last oil crisis. Now, we've lost control of demand. Dan M. ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: Bushco
At 04:50 PM Monday 7/28/2008, Jon Louis Mann wrote: that certainly contributed to why france and germany were so adamant against the invasion, because it would benefit europe if the price of gas in europe and america were to be more equitable. I for one wouldn't have complained had they lowered theirs. . . . ronn! :) ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: Global Economy
At 06:03 PM Monday 7/28/2008, Jon Louis Mann wrote: you are right about bushco using his presidency to enrich his cronies, lance, but i doubt he comprehends what an enormous deleterious effect his policies have had on the global economy. The global economy is still growing at 4%. As I have said before, the assertion that the USA is the world's engineroom is no longer true. An American crash or collapse might slow the rest of the world, but it won't plunge the rest of the world into recession necessarily any more. Charlie. indeed. globalization has changed world trade so that nations are interdepenent. the fact that the global economy is still growing will impact on the american economy. it is time for america to reduce our slice and share the pie with developing countries, thus putting increasing strain on global resurces... jon Make the pie higher! You Knew That Was Coming Maru . . . ronn! :) ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
RE: Conspiracy theories
-Original Message- From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Charlie Bell Sent: Monday, July 28, 2008 5:27 PM To: Killer Bs (David Brin et al) Discussion Subject: Re: Conspiracy theories On 29/07/2008, at 4:10 AM, Jon Louis Mann wrote: you are right about bushco using his presidency to enrich his cronies, lance, but i doubt he comprehends what an enormous deleterious effect his policies have had on the global economy. The global economy is still growing at 4%. As I have said before, the assertion that the USA is the world's engineroom is no longer true. It certainly isn't true as it was 8 years ago, but economists are debating how tied the world is to the spending of the US on credit cards (and their Fanny Mae equivalents.) An American crash or collapse might slow the rest of the world, but it won't plunge the rest of the world into recession necessarily any more. That's true. And, you see in my post that the consumption of the most critical commodity (oil) is not what it was 30 years ago. But.there are still a lot of unknowns. For example, the US has been running a gigantic trade deficit this decadenear 800 billion last year IIRC. A lot of that money is going into Fanny Mae and Freddy Mac bonds.and these institutions may be technically insolvent. The US has to back them, it has little choice. But it will be much harder to arrange a soft landing for the US housing bubble for the world economy than the Asian bubble of '98. The fall of the dollar has been orderly.but unless the trade imbalance fades with the dollar, there is a risk of a run on the bank. The real question for me is what happens with China if/when US purchases from China start to fall. Last year the US had a quarter trillion dollar trade imbalance with China...we imported 321 billion and sold 61 billion. I personally lost a chance at a lucrative contract when the Chinese communist ordered the Chinese oilfield service company to develop everything in house. This can't go on forever, and I'm not certain if China can maintain 10%+ economic growth without this type of arrangement. The only real answer will be to watch. And even then, folks will argue for years afterwards as to the true cause of this and that. Dan M. BTW, I'm not really arguing with you; I'm 90% in your corner in this discussionI just have some worries about short and mid term problems. In the long term, the continued improvement in productivity will facilitate economic growth.but we could have a few rather unpleasant years. It's really unfortunate that Brad isn't an active member.he could add a lot to this type of discussion. ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
economic theories
As I have said before, the assertion that the USA is the world's engine room is no longer true. It certainly isn't true as it was 8 years ago, but economists are debating how tied the world is to the spending of the US on credit cards (and their Fanny Mae equivalents.) An American crash or collapse might slow the rest of the world, but it won't plunge the rest of the world into recession necessarily any more. That's true. And, you see in my post that the consumption of the most critical commodity (oil) is not what it was 30 years ago. But.there are still a lot of unknowns. For example, the US has been running a gigantic trade deficit this decadenear 800 billion last year IIRC. A lot of that money is going into Fanny Mae and Freddy Mac bonds.and these institutions may be technically insolvent. The US has to back them, it has little choice. But it will be much harder to arrange a soft landing for the US housing bubble for the world economy than the Asian bubble of '98. The fall of the dollar has been orderly.but unless the trade imbalance fades with the dollar, there is a risk of a run on the bank. The real question for me is what happens with China if/when US purchases from China start to fall. Last year the US had a quarter trillion dollar trade imbalance with China...we imported 321 billion and sold 61 billion. I personally lost a chance at a lucrative contract when the Chinese communist ordered the Chinese oilfield service company to develop everything in house. This can't go on forever, and I'm not certain if China can maintain 10%+ economic growth without this type of arrangement. The only real answer will be to watch. And even then, folks will argue for years afterwards as to the true cause of this and that. Dan M. BTW, I'm not really arguing with you; I'm 90% in your corner in this discussionI just have some worries about short and mid term problems. In the long term, the continued improvement in productivity will facilitate economic growth.but we could have a few rather unpleasant years. It's really unfortunate that Brad isn't an active member.he could add a lot to this type of discussion. i think we can all agree that there are a lot of factors that affect the domestic and global economy. we can also agree that we are all to blame, although we both have our opinion who, and what, are more to blame. i don't know how the price of oil, adjusted for inflation over 30 years, factors in, but america imports far more oil than in 1978, and a lot more is being produced. the petrochemical industry has also grown tremendously along with production. i believe that the recession and increased demand will continue to cool off the economy in america and abroad. higher production and higher consumption have to reach a limit at some point (unless there is a major break through in non renewable, and non polluting sources of energy). jon ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
