Re: [FRIAM] Nautilus: Investing Is More Luck Than Talent

[Robert Wall]

I am with you there Marcus.  We all have to decide where the truth lies (no
pun intended).   Listing to multiple news sources is the best way when
one has the time to do it. I have at least a dozen go-to news sources that
all seem to provide different, if not conflicting points of view.  I don't
listen to RT exclusively or even predominately, but I haven't gotten a
direct sense of any "propaganda" as such. But, it's tough to say that it
doesn't exist.  It exists everywhere.  Multiple points of view ...

Cheers

On Thu, Jan 19, 2017 at 10:22 PM, Marcus Daniels 
wrote:

> "Do you think *Al Jazeera* is also *not *worth listening to either?"
>
>
> I used to watch it more, not so much lately.   I got the impression that
> the English version was not representative.   I don't think it is directly
> comparable to RT.
>
> Lately Der Spiegel is relevant to my concerns, and the Guardian.   I would
> say that "from a perspective" is going to be a sort of persuasion, if not
> outright propaganda. That's why I like reading Mother Jones too.  I know
> what their `perspective' is.   I'm less thrilled with outlets that try to
> be all things to all people.   Really we need a reporters that act more
> like intelligence agents.  Like diplomatic immunity or similar.
>
>
> --
> *From:* Friam  on behalf of Robert Wall <
> wallrobe...@gmail.com>
> *Sent:* Thursday, January 19, 2017 9:41:01 PM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Nautilus: Investing Is More Luck Than Talent
>
>
>> P.S. RT is the Russian Propaganda news outlet.   Of course, they'd have
>> their own motives for wanting to diminish Chinese power.
>
>
> I think you should try to understand it before you castigate it as Russian
> propaganda.  I know it is popular in the MSM to press this canard--as the
> MSM is dying--but did you think what was presented in the clip I posted as
> being anything like Russian propaganda ... something Putin would want us to
> realize as if we didn't already realize it?  Do you think *Al Jazeera* is
> also *not *worth listening to either?  Given the fake news coming from
> our own MSM, more and more folks are looking elsewhere ... to alternative
> viewpoints, even if foreign ... and even if funded by our current bogeyman.
> As I hear it told, Putin has very little to say about the
> journalistic content of RT.  The same is said of Rupert Murdoch's influence
> over our own *Wall Street Journal*.  Let's look closer at Fox "News,"
> MSNBC, CNN, etc.
>
> I thought the *Columbia Journalism Review* of RT--What Is Russia Today
> ?--was a reasonable
> accounting of this alternative news outlet.  They provide a worldview *from
> their own perspective*.  If we want to understand this country better
> instead of just using them to generate fear in the US in order to promote a
> domestically destructive neoliberal agenda, then I submit that this is a
> good resource for that.
>
> Being open-minded does not mean you are brainwashed.  Quite the opposite I
> would think ...
>
>
> On Thu, Jan 19, 2017 at 8:39 PM, Marcus Daniels 
> wrote:
>
>> "The rigging is, IMHO, of not doing anything about the unabated and
>> disproportionate flow of wealth to the top and, hence, giving rise to the
>> resulting, ever-skewing, descriptive Pareto distribution of wealth versus
>> population.  It certainly does seem like an increasing biasing of the
>> metaphorical *fair *coin [e.g., the busted "trickle down" metaphor of
>> President Ronald Reagan]."
>>
>>
>> I think it depends in part on the source of the wealth and how it is
>> used.   There's a qualitative difference between a Google and a payday loan
>> company that preys on the poor.   Are these wealthy people creating new
>> high-paying jobs or locking-in people to dead-end jobs like coal mining?
>> Do they have a vision of advancement of humanity (Gates) or just a
>> unnecessary assertion of the `need' for a lowest-common-denominator
>> dog-eat-dog view of things?  How does their wealth and power matter in the
>> long run?It is at least good that there isn't just one kind of
>> billionaire, like the sort that destroys the environment and enslaves
>> people.
>>
>>
>> A problem with government is that the agency it gives people is either
>> very limited (you get food stamps so you can eat), or it is also
>> hierarchical like these enterprises (you don't get much agency unless you
>> fight your way up or are an elected official).  For people to truly be free
>> means creating a commons that facilitates other kinds of motivators that
>> are rewarding in more complex ways than just salary or status.
>> Universities don't really deliver on this, except perhaps for
>> some professors who are in that world for most of their adult life.
>>
>>
>> I would say neoliberalism is trying to engineer biased coins that land in
>> 

Re: [FRIAM] Nautilus: Investing Is More Luck Than Talent

[Marcus Daniels]

"Do you think Al Jazeera is also not worth listening to either?"


I used to watch it more, not so much lately.   I got the impression that the 
English version was not representative.   I don't think it is directly 
comparable to RT.

Lately Der Spiegel is relevant to my concerns, and the Guardian.   I would say 
that "from a perspective" is going to be a sort of persuasion, if not outright 
propaganda. That's why I like reading Mother Jones too.  I know what their 
`perspective' is.   I'm less thrilled with outlets that try to be all things to 
all people.   Really we need a reporters that act more like intelligence 
agents.  Like diplomatic immunity or similar.




From: Friam  on behalf of Robert Wall 

Sent: Thursday, January 19, 2017 9:41:01 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Nautilus: Investing Is More Luck Than Talent

P.S. RT is the Russian Propaganda news outlet.   Of course, they'd have their 
own motives for wanting to diminish Chinese power.

I think you should try to understand it before you castigate it as Russian 
propaganda.  I know it is popular in the MSM to press this canard--as the MSM 
is dying--but did you think what was presented in the clip I posted as being 
anything like Russian propaganda ... something Putin would want us to realize 
as if we didn't already realize it?  Do you think Al Jazeera is also not worth 
listening to either?  Given the fake news coming from our own MSM, more and 
more folks are looking elsewhere ... to alternative viewpoints, even if foreign 
... and even if funded by our current bogeyman. As I hear it told, Putin has 
very little to say about the journalistic content of RT.  The same is said of 
Rupert Murdoch's influence over our own Wall Street Journal.  Let's look closer 
at Fox "News," MSNBC, CNN, etc.

I thought the Columbia Journalism Review of RT--What Is Russia 
Today?--was a reasonable 
accounting of this alternative news outlet.  They provide a worldview from 
their own perspective.  If we want to understand this country better instead of 
just using them to generate fear in the US in order to promote a domestically 
destructive neoliberal agenda, then I submit that this is a good resource for 
that.

Being open-minded does not mean you are brainwashed.  Quite the opposite I 
would think ...


On Thu, Jan 19, 2017 at 8:39 PM, Marcus Daniels 
> wrote:

"The rigging is, IMHO, of not doing anything about the unabated and 
disproportionate flow of wealth to the top and, hence, giving rise to the 
resulting, ever-skewing, descriptive Pareto distribution of wealth versus 
population.  It certainly does seem like an increasing biasing of the 
metaphorical fair coin [e.g., the busted "trickle down" metaphor of President 
Ronald Reagan]."


I think it depends in part on the source of the wealth and how it is used.   
There's a qualitative difference between a Google and a payday loan company 
that preys on the poor.   Are these wealthy people creating new high-paying 
jobs or locking-in people to dead-end jobs like coal mining?  Do they have a 
vision of advancement of humanity (Gates) or just a unnecessary assertion of 
the `need' for a lowest-common-denominator dog-eat-dog view of things?  How 
does their wealth and power matter in the long run?It is at least good that 
there isn't just one kind of billionaire, like the sort that destroys the 
environment and enslaves people.


A problem with government is that the agency it gives people is either very 
limited (you get food stamps so you can eat), or it is also hierarchical like 
these enterprises (you don't get much agency unless you fight your way up or 
are an elected official).  For people to truly be free means creating a commons 
that facilitates other kinds of motivators that are rewarding in more complex 
ways than just salary or status.   Universities don't really deliver on this, 
except perhaps for some professors who are in that world for most of their 
adult life.


I would say neoliberalism is trying to engineer biased coins that land in a 
coordinated ways to build something more complex.   One way is with trade laws.


Marcus


P.S. RT is the Russian Propaganda news outlet.   Of course, they'd have their 
own motives for wanting to diminish Chinese power.


From: Friam > on 
behalf of Robert Wall >
Sent: Thursday, January 19, 2017 4:57:14 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: [FRIAM] Nautilus: Investing Is More Luck Than Talent

This is just an exploratory thought piece to try in this forum ... please skip 
if it seems, right off the bat, as being too thought-full ...  [?] [?]

Does 

Re: [FRIAM] Nautilus: Investing Is More Luck Than Talent

[Robert Wall]

>
> It is a double standard and a failure of imagination to think that
> ​ ...​
>

Hillary Clinton?  RT?  Though the initial response you gave seemed to be on
topic or near it, regretfully, you seemed to have gotten side-tracked by
other things in my prose about it.  And so, to me at least, you seem to be
cherry-picking things of no consequence here to the topic. I guess that's
okay, but I don't think I want to go there with you at the risk of being
side-tracked myself. Perhaps these could be the subject of another thread?
I can join you there for a more detailed response.

To be sure, this particular thread is about whether or not massive wealth
or disproportionate global prosperity is earned or achieved mostly by
luck.  It is about neoliberalism as an excuse by those who benefit for the
continuance of the current trends in the ever-widening wealth gap, not only
in this country but in others as well. How do Trade Agreements fit into
this? Could this be a prequel to a dangerous tipping point towards the
instability of a society?  At least that is what I intended to convey.


On Thu, Jan 19, 2017 at 9:28 PM, Marcus Daniels 
wrote:

> "Strong critics of Hillary Clinton imply that she, like her husband,
> would surely have strengthened the negative feedback effect of
> neoliberalism toward their own self-interest and toward worsening social
> stability, IMHO."
>
>
> It is a double standard and a failure of imagination to think that one
> cannot optimize multiple objectives at once, e.g. their own good and the
> common good.  It is not even hypocritical.   The fact is that it takes
> money and power to change things, so they went out and got some.   No, she
> should have been a nun, but the Donald can swoop down with his kleptocrat
> friends and do god knows what..
>
>
> Marcus
> --
> *From:* Friam  on behalf of Robert Wall <
> wallrobe...@gmail.com>
> *Sent:* Thursday, January 19, 2017 4:57:14 PM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
> *Subject:* [FRIAM] Nautilus: Investing Is More Luck Than Talent
>
> This is just an exploratory thought piece to try in this forum ... please
> skip if it seems, right off the bat, as being too thought-full ...  [image:
> ][image: ]
>
> Does *Pareto's Principle
>  *(with the attending,
> so-called Power Law ) provide
> good *moral* justification for an amped-up progressive tax strategy or a
> reverse-discriminating set of rebalancing policies [e.g., changing the
> probabilities for the "everyman"]?  And, is the argument one of
> *morality *or one of *necessity*?  That's what this thread and the
> subject *Nautilus *article intend to explore, especially with the events
> that will begin the next four years tomorrow.
>
> *Nautilus*:  Investing Is More Luck Than Talent
> 
>  (January
> 19, 2017).
>
> *The surprising message of the statistics of wealth distribution.*
>
>
> *I returned and saw under the sun, that the race is not to the swift, nor
> the battle to the strong, *
> *neither yet bread to the wise, nor yet riches to men of understanding,
> nor yet favor to men of skill, *
> *but time and chance happeneth to them all.*  (Ecclesiastes 9:11)
>
>
> [*an introductory aside*: As computational statisticians, we love our
> simulations ... and our coin tosses.  [image: ] We are always mindful
> of *bias *... as, say, apparent with the ever-widening wealth gap. Money,
> Money, Money  ...] [image:
> ]
>
> [image: Inline image 1]
>
>
> So, as described in the subject *Nautilus *article, Pareto's Principle,
> descriptively seen so often in nature, seems to imply that the current
> widening wealth gap is, well, "natural?"  Judging by its prevalence in most
> all rich societies, it does seem so. However, remembering that this sorting
> process works even with *fair *coin tosses in investments and gambling,
> this process phenomenon with its biased outcomes seems to occur in many
> places and on many levels ...
>
> For example, we find this aspect of *luck in nature* elsewhere in
> biological processes; from *Wikipedia *... *Chance and Necessity: Essay
> on the Natural Philosophy of Modern Biology* is a 1970 book by Nobel
> Prize winner Jacques Monod, interpreting the processes of evolution to show
> that life is only the result of natural processes by "pure chance." The
> basic tenet of this book is that systems in nature with molecular biology,
> such as enzymatic biofeedback loops [*metabolisms*] can be explained
> without having to invoke final causality [e.g., Intelligent Design].
>
> Usually, relatively very few winners and many, many losers. Phenotypical
> luck or 

Re: [FRIAM] Nautilus: Investing Is More Luck Than Talent

[Steven A Smith]

Robert -


Being open-minded does not mean you are brainwashed.  Quite the 
opposite I would think ...
I don't know if this is responsive to your specific intent, but when I 
first heard it, it was a powerful point and fit *way* too many people I 
know who *purport* to be "open minded" (after all, who actually *claims* 
to be otherwise?).


   /"Having an open mind, means just about anyone can pour just about
   anything into it!"

   /

I find (too) often that people use the phrase "be open minded" as a jeer 
or an intimidation tactic meaning something more like "If you refuse to 
believe what I do, you are being close-minded".  I *especially* find 
this happening among Trump supporters right now. But it also happens 
among my stronger conspiracy-theorist friends (who are, surprise, 
Trumpians!)... those who start with "fouride in the water is a gubbmin't 
mind-control plot" and tend to end up somewhere around "We are all 
descended from Atlanteans who were really aliens who gene-spliced in our 
special form of intelligence and other hidden powers most people can't 
access, because they don't believe!"






On Thu, Jan 19, 2017 at 8:39 PM, Marcus Daniels > wrote:


"The rigging is, IMHO, of not doing anything about the unabated
and disproportionate flow of wealth to the top and, hence, giving
rise to the resulting, ever-skewing, descriptive Pareto
distribution of wealth versus population.  It certainly does seem
like an increasing biasing of the metaphorical /fair /coin [e.g.,
the busted "trickle down" metaphor of President Ronald Reagan]."


I think it depends in part on the source of the wealth and how it
is used.   There's a qualitative difference between a Google and a
payday loan company that preys on the poor.   Are these wealthy
people creating new high-paying jobs or locking-in people to
dead-end jobs like coal mining?  Do they have a vision of
advancement of humanity (Gates) or just a unnecessary assertion of
the `need' for a lowest-common-denominator dog-eat-dog view of
things?  How does their wealth and power matter in the long run?
   It is at least good that there isn't just one kind of
billionaire, like the sort that destroys the environment and
enslaves people.


A problem with government is that the agency it gives people is
either very limited (you get food stamps so you can eat), or it is
also hierarchical like these enterprises (you don't get much
agency unless you fight your way up or are an elected official).
For people to truly be free means creating a commons that
facilitates other kinds of motivators that are rewarding in more
complex ways than just salary or status.   Universities don't
really deliver on this, except perhaps for some professors who are
in that world for most of their adult life.


I would say neoliberalism is trying to engineer biased coins that
land in a coordinated ways to build something more complex.   One
way is with trade laws.


Marcus


P.S. RT is the Russian Propaganda news outlet.   Of course, they'd
have their own motives for wanting to diminish Chinese power.


*From:* Friam > on behalf of Robert Wall
>
*Sent:* Thursday, January 19, 2017 4:57:14 PM
*To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
*Subject:* [FRIAM] Nautilus: Investing Is More Luck Than Talent
This is just an exploratory thought piece to try in this forum ...
please skip if it seems, right off the bat, as being too
thought-full ... 

Does *Pareto's Principle
 *(with the
attending, so-called Power Law
) provide good
_moral_ justification for an amped-up progressive tax strategy or
a reverse-discriminating set of rebalancing policies [e.g.,
changing the probabilities for the "everyman"]?  And, is the
argument one of *morality *or one of *necessity*?  That's what
this thread and the subject /Nautilus /article intend to explore,
especially with the events that will begin the next four years
tomorrow.

/Nautilus/: Investing Is More Luck Than Talent


 (January
19, 2017).

/The surprising message of the statistics of wealth
distribution./


/I returned and saw under the sun, that the race is not to the
swift, nor the battle to the strong, /
/neither yet bread to the wise, nor yet riches to men of

Re: [FRIAM] Nautilus: Investing Is More Luck Than Talent

[Robert Wall]

>
> P.S. RT is the Russian Propaganda news outlet.   Of course, they'd have
> their own motives for wanting to diminish Chinese power.


I think you should try to understand it before you castigate it as Russian
propaganda.  I know it is popular in the MSM to press this canard--as the
MSM is dying--but did you think what was presented in the clip I posted as
being anything like Russian propaganda ... something Putin would want us to
realize as if we didn't already realize it?  Do you think *Al Jazeera* is
also *not *worth listening to either?  Given the fake news coming from our
own MSM, more and more folks are looking elsewhere ... to alternative
viewpoints, even if foreign ... and even if funded by our current bogeyman.
As I hear it told, Putin has very little to say about the
journalistic content of RT.  The same is said of Rupert Murdoch's influence
over our own *Wall Street Journal*.  Let's look closer at Fox "News,"
MSNBC, CNN, etc.

I thought the *Columbia Journalism Review* of RT--What Is Russia Today
?--was a reasonable
accounting of this alternative news outlet.  They provide a worldview *from
their own perspective*.  If we want to understand this country better
instead of just using them to generate fear in the US in order to promote a
domestically destructive neoliberal agenda, then I submit that this is a
good resource for that.

Being open-minded does not mean you are brainwashed.  Quite the opposite I
would think ...


On Thu, Jan 19, 2017 at 8:39 PM, Marcus Daniels 
wrote:

> "The rigging is, IMHO, of not doing anything about the unabated and
> disproportionate flow of wealth to the top and, hence, giving rise to the
> resulting, ever-skewing, descriptive Pareto distribution of wealth versus
> population.  It certainly does seem like an increasing biasing of the
> metaphorical *fair *coin [e.g., the busted "trickle down" metaphor of
> President Ronald Reagan]."
>
>
> I think it depends in part on the source of the wealth and how it is
> used.   There's a qualitative difference between a Google and a payday loan
> company that preys on the poor.   Are these wealthy people creating new
> high-paying jobs or locking-in people to dead-end jobs like coal mining?
> Do they have a vision of advancement of humanity (Gates) or just a
> unnecessary assertion of the `need' for a lowest-common-denominator
> dog-eat-dog view of things?  How does their wealth and power matter in the
> long run?It is at least good that there isn't just one kind of
> billionaire, like the sort that destroys the environment and enslaves
> people.
>
>
> A problem with government is that the agency it gives people is either
> very limited (you get food stamps so you can eat), or it is also
> hierarchical like these enterprises (you don't get much agency unless you
> fight your way up or are an elected official).  For people to truly be free
> means creating a commons that facilitates other kinds of motivators that
> are rewarding in more complex ways than just salary or status.
> Universities don't really deliver on this, except perhaps for
> some professors who are in that world for most of their adult life.
>
>
> I would say neoliberalism is trying to engineer biased coins that land in
> a coordinated ways to build something more complex.   One way is with trade
> laws.
>
>
> Marcus
>
>
> P.S. RT is the Russian Propaganda news outlet.   Of course, they'd have
> their own motives for wanting to diminish Chinese power.
> --
> *From:* Friam  on behalf of Robert Wall <
> wallrobe...@gmail.com>
> *Sent:* Thursday, January 19, 2017 4:57:14 PM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
> *Subject:* [FRIAM] Nautilus: Investing Is More Luck Than Talent
>
> This is just an exploratory thought piece to try in this forum ... please
> skip if it seems, right off the bat, as being too thought-full ...  [image:
> ][image: ]
>
> Does *Pareto's Principle
>  *(with the attending,
> so-called Power Law ) provide
> good *moral* justification for an amped-up progressive tax strategy or a
> reverse-discriminating set of rebalancing policies [e.g., changing the
> probabilities for the "everyman"]?  And, is the argument one of
> *morality *or one of *necessity*?  That's what this thread and the
> subject *Nautilus *article intend to explore, especially with the events
> that will begin the next four years tomorrow.
>
> *Nautilus*:  Investing Is More Luck Than Talent
> 
>  (January
> 19, 2017).
>
> *The surprising message of the statistics of wealth distribution.*
>
>
> *I returned and saw under the sun, that the race is not to 

Re: [FRIAM] ready for a bonfire?

[Marcus Daniels]

Some of the obvious choices there have suspicious or known-bad advocacy with 
regard to political candidates.   Nunes would be fine, but she's Brazilian.   
Anyway, as usual, you are hung-up on fair play.

-Original Message-
From: Friam [mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com] On Behalf Of glen ?
Sent: Thursday, January 19, 2017 1:33 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] ready for a bonfire?


Heh, they don't need to use their teeth:

  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E8VhtmFDzxg


On 01/19/2017 12:26 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
> “There may be a similar (over)reaction of yet another kind this round, but I 
> am not seeing it yet?   I don't think the MegaWoman March is an example of 
> that, but the Trumpians seem to think it is an offense... as if they are 
> coming to dc to tear Trump off his podium and shred him with their bare 
> teeth.”
> 
> * *
> 
> $100 for the pay-per-view would help keep a lot of dentists busy.


--
☣ glen


FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe 
http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove

FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove

Re: [FRIAM] ready for a bonfire?

[glen ☣]

Heh, they don't need to use their teeth:

  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E8VhtmFDzxg


On 01/19/2017 12:26 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
> “There may be a similar (over)reaction of yet another kind this round, but I 
> am not seeing it yet?   I don't think the MegaWoman March is an example of 
> that, but the Trumpians seem to think it is an offense... as if they are 
> coming to dc to tear Trump off his podium and shred him with their bare 
> teeth.”
> 
> * *
> 
> $100 for the pay-per-view would help keep a lot of dentists busy.


-- 
☣ glen


FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove

Re: [FRIAM] ready for a bonfire?

[Marcus Daniels]

“There may be a similar (over)reaction of yet another kind this round, but I am 
not seeing it yet?   I don't think the MegaWoman March is an example of that, 
but the Trumpians seem to think it is an offense... as if they are coming to dc 
to tear Trump off his podium and shred him with their bare teeth.”

$100 for the pay-per-view would help keep a lot of dentists busy.

Marcus

FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove

Re: [FRIAM] ready for a bonfire?

[Steven A Smith]

On 1/19/17 10:47 AM, glen ☣ wrote:

I know it's offensive and disrespectful of me to feel this way, and especially 
to express it publicly.  But part of me is excited about the possibility of 
this happening ... not necessarily excited in a good way... more like an 
adrenaline+cortisol sort of way.  On the plus side, those who voted for him as 
an expression of frustration would definitely see the results of their actions. 
 Yes, it's too bad stupidity isn't painful.  But in this case, the stupidity of 
voting for Trump will be painful (and deadly).

Glen ☣ -

I'm with you on this... in the sense that my own "mood swings" have a 
sort of rectifying circuit that makes times like this be the "bounce" in 
a rectified AC wave... I get juiced up on the "worst of times" in a way 
that is similar but different to the "best of times"... Even if I don't 
have a specific, obvious "call to action" to respond to it, the 
heightened sense that I need to be ready to take a problem head-on if it 
arises.   Probably an entirely male thing, and maybe reflects my Viking 
ancestry and Rural roots which I'm not always proud of (each of the 
three).I sometimes just call this my "morbid fascination", but that 
is a more passive version than what I feel in "times like this".

Those of us who kindasorta get off on pain won't suffer as much as those who 
really dislike it.  Let's just hope (probably in vain) that those who voted for 
him recognize that they caused the pain and death.
Sadly, that is rare... I had a very hard time accepting the pain and 
suffering I caused (to others even more than to myself) by voting Reagan 
in (the first time)... so I'm not holding my breath with the Trumpians 
in my life to realize what self-destructive mayhem they are raining down 
on *themselves*!


There is nothing in Trump's personality nor in his actions as a business 
"mogul" or recent actions as a candidate nor PrezElect (PEOTUS?) lead me 
to believe he won't bite every hand that fed him... his apparent loyalty 
to his children is the only place I see him present any loyalty.   I'm 
thinking Ivana and Marla both have plenty of undersanding of how 
unfaithful and fickle he can be.  I'm sure there is one hell of a 
post-nuptial contract with both big sticks and carrots attached to keep 
THEM quiet!


Funny how 8 years ago, the right wing-gun-nuts went out and bought 
ammunition like it was going out of style and the only "shortage" that 
came was from their paranoid hoarding.   There are plenty who still seem 
to believe that *their gluttony* was not to blame for the shortages but 
a conspiracy by a secret muslim-non-american president to keep them from 
stocking up on their fetishes of freedom!


There may be a similar (over)reaction of yet another kind this round, 
but I am not seeing it yet?   I don't think the MegaWoman March is an 
example of that, but the Trumpians seem to think it is an offense... as 
if they are coming to dc to tear Trump off his podium and shred him with 
their bare teeth.   Now wouldn't that be something?


I'm trying to shift the focus of my cosmic angst toward supporting these 
women and the spirit of their mission rather than feeding the energies 
of the Wanker in Chief (to be) by stressing on he negative aspecst of 
what seems to be inevitable from his nature and actions.


- Steve



On 01/19/2017 08:31 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:

http://thehill.com/policy/finance/314991-trump-team-prepares-dramatic-cuts



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Re: [FRIAM] ready for a bonfire?

[glen ☣]

I know, right?  But pointing out fallacies in someone's reasoning rarely works. 
 And, to be fair, fallacies are fallacious anyway:

   http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Fallacy_fallacy

... shout out to the other thread. >8^)

A^¬A  Hail Eris!

On 01/19/2017 10:53 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
> "When he retired, we yapped over half-done yard work about how corporatism 
> and shareholder-first mentality destroyed his work environment."
> 
> So, obviously, the thing to do is to vote to put corporate CEO types in 
> charge of everything!

-- 
☣ glen


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Re: [FRIAM] ready for a bonfire?

[Marcus Daniels]

"When he retired, we yapped over half-done yard work about how corporatism and 
shareholder-first mentality destroyed his work environment."

So, obviously, the thing to do is to vote to put corporate CEO types in charge 
of everything!

Marcus

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Re: [FRIAM] Cold War Jitters Resurface as U.S. Marines Arrive in Norway - The New York Times

[cody dooderson]

Kim,
Given our recent history, I would guess that the US is more likely to
invade Norway for it's oil than Russia is.

Cody Smith

On Thu, Jan 19, 2017 at 9:48 AM, Owen Densmore  wrote:

> I think Kim's response bounced so I'm remailing it here:
>
> *From:* Kim Sorvig [mailto:sor...@cybermesa.com]
> *Sent:* Tuesday, January 17, 2017 2:21 PM
> *To:* 'Owen Densmore'; 'Complexity Coffee Group'; 'Kim Sorvig'
> *Subject:* RE: Cold War Jitters Resurface as U.S. Marines Arrive in
> Norway - The New York Times
>
>
>
> My friends in Norway are of an age to remember the Cold War - but for
> them, Russia was literally next door, across a line on the ground.  Their
> parents remembered both Hitler and Stalin, and especially the Nazi
> take-over of Norway.
>
>
> Oil wealth has only increased the odds that some Russian will decide they
> must annex Norway.
>
>
> And I suspect many are concerned that Pres. Voldemort will prefer being
> pals with Hijo de Putin over protecting NATO allies.
>
>
>
> So yes, as far as such speculations go, I would say this is one of the
> least fantastical ones out there at the moment.
>
> Kim Sorvig
>
> On Wed, Jan 18, 2017 at 6:12 PM, Vladimyr Burachynsky 
> wrote:
>
>> The New York Times article seems to conflate geography like a party game,
>> Twister. It starts in Norway switches to Sweden, Finland, Lithuania
>> Kalingrad and keeps returning to fear and Russia.
>>
>> They should have provided a map to keep track of the game pieces.
>>
>>
>>
>> The Norwegians share an interest in smuggling Atlantic Salmon fillets to
>> Muscovites who smoke it.
>>
>> Russians smuggle bicycles to Norway pedal-powered by Syrian refugees.
>>
>> The Lithuanians smuggle cigarettes from Russia. The Russians smuggle wild
>> Mushrooms (Boletus edulis) and furs  to Europe
>>
>> The Russians also used to smuggle High Grade Birch Plywood through
>> Finland and on to the entire world.
>>
>> The Russians used to smuggle mammoth Ivory to Alaska. Canada smuggled
>> Grass to the USA.
>>
>> The Polish Merchant Marine Ships used to smuggle Vodka (Spiritus) into
>> Canada.
>>
>> And all Baltic States  smuggle Amber and Herrings.
>>
>> The Ukrainians smuggle well heeled Syrians from Russia to Slovakia flying
>> Russian Helicopters at tree top heights through the Carpathian Mts.
>>
>> They used to smuggle diamonds out of and Moldavian Guns into , Africa.
>>
>> Well if America needs to train soldiers in Arctic conditions what was
>> wrong with Alaska or North Dakota.
>>
>> Perhaps militarism is bad for all smugglers. Seems sanctions only served
>> smugglers.
>>
>> vib.
>>
>>
>>
>> *From:* Friam [mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com] *On Behalf Of *Owen
>> Densmore
>> *Sent:* January-17-17 11:15 AM
>> *To:* Complexity Coffee Group; Kim Sorvig
>> *Subject:* [FRIAM] Cold War Jitters Resurface as U.S. Marines Arrive in
>> Norway - The New York Times
>>
>>
>>
>> Does this make any sense? Are Norwegians concerned about a Russian
>> invasion? Sounds nuts.
>>
>> ​​
>>
>> https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/16/world/europe/norway-us-ru
>> ssia-marines.html
>>
>>
>>
>> ​Poland recently​ received US military folks too:
>>
>>   https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/12/world/europe/as-trump-
>> reaches-toward-putin-us-troops-arrive-in-poland.html
>>
>>
>>
>> It seems to be NATO sponsored but why US troops?
>>
>>
>>
>> I'm a bit spooked.
>>
>>
>>
>> ​   -- Owen​
>>
>>
>>
>> 
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>>
>
>
> 
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Re: [FRIAM] ready for a bonfire?

[glen ☣]

I'm struggling with being respectful to my neighbor, who voted for Trump.  He's 
a relatively moderate Fundamentalist Christian.  When he retired, we yapped 
over half-done yard work about how corporatism and shareholder-first mentality 
destroyed his work environment.  He's given me Christian books to try to help 
me at least emphathize with theists.  I gave him my copy of Jefferson's Bible, 
which is as good a declaration of Jesus' ideas any skeptic could hope for.  And 
when he started his post-retirement bus driving job for elementary school kids, 
we lamented the pervasiveness of misogyny, disrespect, and addiction to 
stimulus.

But now I'm super pissed at him for voting for that disgusting human Trump, for 
throwing us all under the bus just because his theism, ideology, perspective is 
fear- and hate-based.  He doesn't admit that his entire life is fear- and 
hate-based, of course.  But I successfully communicated it _once_ when he 
started complaining about the FFRF billboards that showed various ordinary 
people and said they were atheists.  The way he described what he thought 
atheism was, the words he used, were hateful words.  I stopped him, repeated 
his words, then replaced "atheist" with Christian and repeated them again.  His 
eyes opened wide and he looked at the ground and said  "Well, I guess I 
didn't realize how I sounded.  I really don't feel that way about atheists."

But that was the only occasion.  Every other complaint he expresses is made 
with the righteous indignation that only comes from abject ignorance.

It has been very difficult for me to treat him with respect over the last 2.5 
months.  I'm working on it.

On 01/19/2017 10:03 AM, Gillian Densmore wrote:
> What bothers me is why is it even a question about doing the right thing? oO 
> Honor is honor and n my mind is their no question that by being respectul, 
> friendly and helpful to your neighbores you will have alies for when YOU need 
> someone. That's just basic. I suppose i'm odd like that.


-- 
☣ glen


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Re: [FRIAM] ready for a bonfire?

[Gillian Densmore]

(without spamming this)
For example: why is it even a question to have a national health system?
Honor says it's not. Just provide something fucking awsome.

On Thu, Jan 19, 2017 at 11:03 AM, Gillian Densmore 
wrote:

> What bothers me is why is it even a question about doing the right thing?
> oO Honor is honor and n my mind is their no question that by being
> respectul, friendly and helpful to your neighbores you will have alies for
> when YOU need someone. That's just basic. I suppose i'm odd like that.
>
> On Thu, Jan 19, 2017 at 11:00 AM, Gillian Densmore  > wrote:
>
>> Glen raises a good point. Experience es Daucet Est. Et Illuminus.
>> Experience teaches, and lights the way to learn.
>> I hold hope that people will learn. When and how is a whole other
>> question and problem.
>>
>> In a strangely backwards Sith like way they might learn.  Only time can
>> show that.
>> As to the Health Care Act? Some of my more how should I saymisguided
>> friends want to see it gone because the  use it that an they took ma'
>> crappy assembly line job! (Wich is why I refuse to talk politics with them)
>>
>> We can only guess about what ifs. Such as: What if they made it an
>> amendment such that everyone gets fucking awsome health coverage and is
>> protected by FDR's varius social help systems including the very popular
>> and somewhat sucessful Medicare and Medicade system?
>>
>> Much Merriment to all!!!
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> On Thu, Jan 19, 2017 at 10:47 AM, glen ☣  wrote:
>>
>>>
>>> I know it's offensive and disrespectful of me to feel this way, and
>>> especially to express it publicly.  But part of me is excited about the
>>> possibility of this happening ... not necessarily excited in a good way...
>>> more like an adrenaline+cortisol sort of way.  On the plus side, those who
>>> voted for him as an expression of frustration would definitely see the
>>> results of their actions.  Yes, it's too bad stupidity isn't painful.  But
>>> in this case, the stupidity of voting for Trump will be painful (and
>>> deadly).
>>>
>>> Those of us who kindasorta get off on pain won't suffer as much as those
>>> who really dislike it.  Let's just hope (probably in vain) that those who
>>> voted for him recognize that they caused the pain and death.
>>>
>>>
>>> On 01/19/2017 08:31 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
>>> > http://thehill.com/policy/finance/314991-trump-team-prepares
>>> -dramatic-cuts
>>>
>>> --
>>> ☣ glen
>>>
>>> 
>>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>>> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
>>> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
>>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
>>>
>>
>>
>

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Re: [FRIAM] ready for a bonfire?

[Gillian Densmore]

What bothers me is why is it even a question about doing the right thing?
oO Honor is honor and n my mind is their no question that by being
respectul, friendly and helpful to your neighbores you will have alies for
when YOU need someone. That's just basic. I suppose i'm odd like that.

On Thu, Jan 19, 2017 at 11:00 AM, Gillian Densmore 
wrote:

> Glen raises a good point. Experience es Daucet Est. Et Illuminus.
> Experience teaches, and lights the way to learn.
> I hold hope that people will learn. When and how is a whole other question
> and problem.
>
> In a strangely backwards Sith like way they might learn.  Only time can
> show that.
> As to the Health Care Act? Some of my more how should I saymisguided
> friends want to see it gone because the  use it that an they took ma'
> crappy assembly line job! (Wich is why I refuse to talk politics with them)
>
> We can only guess about what ifs. Such as: What if they made it an
> amendment such that everyone gets fucking awsome health coverage and is
> protected by FDR's varius social help systems including the very popular
> and somewhat sucessful Medicare and Medicade system?
>
> Much Merriment to all!!!
>
>
>
>
> On Thu, Jan 19, 2017 at 10:47 AM, glen ☣  wrote:
>
>>
>> I know it's offensive and disrespectful of me to feel this way, and
>> especially to express it publicly.  But part of me is excited about the
>> possibility of this happening ... not necessarily excited in a good way...
>> more like an adrenaline+cortisol sort of way.  On the plus side, those who
>> voted for him as an expression of frustration would definitely see the
>> results of their actions.  Yes, it's too bad stupidity isn't painful.  But
>> in this case, the stupidity of voting for Trump will be painful (and
>> deadly).
>>
>> Those of us who kindasorta get off on pain won't suffer as much as those
>> who really dislike it.  Let's just hope (probably in vain) that those who
>> voted for him recognize that they caused the pain and death.
>>
>>
>> On 01/19/2017 08:31 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
>> > http://thehill.com/policy/finance/314991-trump-team-prepares
>> -dramatic-cuts
>>
>> --
>> ☣ glen
>>
>> 
>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
>> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
>>
>
>

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Re: [FRIAM] ready for a bonfire?

[Gillian Densmore]

Glen raises a good point. Experience es Daucet Est. Et Illuminus.
Experience teaches, and lights the way to learn.
I hold hope that people will learn. When and how is a whole other question
and problem.

In a strangely backwards Sith like way they might learn.  Only time can
show that.
As to the Health Care Act? Some of my more how should I saymisguided
friends want to see it gone because the  use it that an they took ma'
crappy assembly line job! (Wich is why I refuse to talk politics with them)

We can only guess about what ifs. Such as: What if they made it an
amendment such that everyone gets fucking awsome health coverage and is
protected by FDR's varius social help systems including the very popular
and somewhat sucessful Medicare and Medicade system?

Much Merriment to all!!!




On Thu, Jan 19, 2017 at 10:47 AM, glen ☣  wrote:

>
> I know it's offensive and disrespectful of me to feel this way, and
> especially to express it publicly.  But part of me is excited about the
> possibility of this happening ... not necessarily excited in a good way...
> more like an adrenaline+cortisol sort of way.  On the plus side, those who
> voted for him as an expression of frustration would definitely see the
> results of their actions.  Yes, it's too bad stupidity isn't painful.  But
> in this case, the stupidity of voting for Trump will be painful (and
> deadly).
>
> Those of us who kindasorta get off on pain won't suffer as much as those
> who really dislike it.  Let's just hope (probably in vain) that those who
> voted for him recognize that they caused the pain and death.
>
>
> On 01/19/2017 08:31 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
> > http://thehill.com/policy/finance/314991-trump-team-
> prepares-dramatic-cuts
>
> --
> ☣ glen
>
> 
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
>

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Re: [FRIAM] ready for a bonfire?

[Marcus Daniels]

The numbers don't really add-up in that article (who would expect them to..) , 
but at the end of the day a populist isn't going to do things that make him 
unpopular.   So, I'd expect entitlement spending to stay high and military 
spending to be even higher.  It's all the rest of the stuff that which supports 
_civilization_ that can be expected to be destroyed.   Like the endowment for 
the arts & humanities, public broadcasting, climate & health research, economic 
development funding (esp. for minorities), and so on.I expect a regime 
concerned with short term returns and a lot of meaningless (but destructive) 
drama to appeal to the most predatory and feral of his supporters.  

-Original Message-
From: Friam [mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com] On Behalf Of glen ?
Sent: Thursday, January 19, 2017 10:47 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] ready for a bonfire?


I know it's offensive and disrespectful of me to feel this way, and especially 
to express it publicly.  But part of me is excited about the possibility of 
this happening ... not necessarily excited in a good way... more like an 
adrenaline+cortisol sort of way.  On the plus side, those who voted for him as 
an expression of frustration would definitely see the results of their actions. 
 Yes, it's too bad stupidity isn't painful.  But in this case, the stupidity of 
voting for Trump will be painful (and deadly).

Those of us who kindasorta get off on pain won't suffer as much as those who 
really dislike it.  Let's just hope (probably in vain) that those who voted for 
him recognize that they caused the pain and death.


On 01/19/2017 08:31 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
> http://thehill.com/policy/finance/314991-trump-team-prepares-dramatic-
> cuts

--
☣ glen


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Re: [FRIAM] ready for a bonfire?

[glen ☣]

I know it's offensive and disrespectful of me to feel this way, and especially 
to express it publicly.  But part of me is excited about the possibility of 
this happening ... not necessarily excited in a good way... more like an 
adrenaline+cortisol sort of way.  On the plus side, those who voted for him as 
an expression of frustration would definitely see the results of their actions. 
 Yes, it's too bad stupidity isn't painful.  But in this case, the stupidity of 
voting for Trump will be painful (and deadly).

Those of us who kindasorta get off on pain won't suffer as much as those who 
really dislike it.  Let's just hope (probably in vain) that those who voted for 
him recognize that they caused the pain and death.


On 01/19/2017 08:31 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
> http://thehill.com/policy/finance/314991-trump-team-prepares-dramatic-cuts

-- 
☣ glen


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Re: [FRIAM] The root of personality disorders

[Owen Densmore]

Post hoc ergo propter hoc?

   -- Owen

On Thu, Jan 19, 2017 at 8:34 AM, Robert J. Cordingley  wrote:

> Aren't you now talking about different reasoning models/tasks:
> Classification
> Diagnosis
> Hypothetical Reasoning
> Bayesian
> Fuzzy logic
> etc.
>
> On the other hand I've always felt the medical community named too many
> diseases and conditions after their symptoms usually in a hi-falutin format
> rather than an actual cause, e.g. abdominal aortic aneurysm or after the
> person identifying it, e.g. Alois Alzheimer. Which get's back to Glen's
> circularity.
>
> Robert C
>
>
> On 1/19/17 7:14 AM, Frank Wimberly wrote:
>
> Point taken, Eric.  That is more realistic.  I was making the point that
> even for non-psychiatric problems the symptoms (partly) define the
> disease.  There are tests like biopsies and cultures of organisms that
> confirm the diagnoses of those diagnoses.  Some psychiatric disorders can
> be confirmed by biopsy (e.g. Alzheimer's) but they are often done
> posthumously.
>
> In my mother-in-law's case they said they thought she had pneumonia.  I
> don't remember the details but I know that they tried to drain her chest
> but couldn't even insert a tube.  Four weeks after the first symptom she
> died.  Of course they had changed the diagnosis early on.  Northwestern
> Memorial Hospital, 1984.
>
> Nick will, I hope, explain the paper at Friam.
>
> Frank
>
> Frank Wimberly
> Phone (505) 670-9918
>
> On Jan 19, 2017 6:48 AM, "Eric Charles" 
> wrote:
>
>> But Frank doesn't it normally go a bit more like this:
>>
>> Why is my husband unable to breathe and coughs all the time?
>>
>> I hypothesize that he has pneumonia - a chest x-ray is a cheap and fairly
>> reliable test of that hypothesis.
>>
>> Then let's do a chest x-ray!
>>
>> Well ma'am, the x-ray shows white lumps, supporting the hypothesis.
>> Pneumonia is often caused by a bacterial infection, and because you say he
>> didn't have a cold previously, I think that is the case here. We can test
>> that hypothesis with the administration of certain antibiotics.
>>
>> Then let's get those antibiotics!
>>
>> Well ma'am, I see that after taking the antibiotics, the white lumps,
>> difficulty breathing, and coughs resolved. Based on that, I feel confident
>> that my hypothesis was correct, and that your husband's pneumonia is now
>> cured.
>>
>> Wait a minute. How do you know he had pneumonia?
>>
>> I don't really. But the antibiotics seem to have helped, and that leads
>> me both to have confidence in my original hypothesis and, ironically, to
>> not really care that much about the hypothesis.  All that really matters is
>> that your husband is better, and that I am likely to give antibiotics again
>> if I meet someone that presents in the same manner.
>>
>> Oh.
>>
>> P.S. See also Nick's paper, for quite different issues. Nick is
>> interested fundamental issues regarding what gets to count as an
>> explanation. But note that the discussion above any causality is quite
>> different than in the prior anecdotes. In this case,
>> taking-an-xray explains why we are looking at images of white lumps, and
>> taking-antibiotics explains why the symptoms resolved. It matters not a bit
>> if the entity referred to as pneumonia is "real", if it is mere
>> "symptomology" or a viable "causal" agent responsible for the original
>> difficulties, etc. Not that those are not interesting questions, just that
>> they are (potentially) irrelevant to this particular interaction.
>>
>>
>>
>> ---
>> Eric P. Charles, Ph.D.
>> Supervisory Survey Statistician
>> U.S. Marine Corps
>>
>> On Wed, Jan 18, 2017 at 8:17 PM, Frank Wimberly 
>> wrote:
>>
>>> Why is my husband unable to breathe and coughs all the time?  And what
>>> is this large white area on his chest x-ray?
>>>
>>> He has lung cancer.
>>>
>>> How do you know?
>>>
>>> Because he has difficulty breathing, he coughs constantly, and he has a
>>> positive chest x-ray.
>>>
>>> Frank C. Wimberly
>>> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz
>>> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>>>
>>> wimber...@gmail.com wimbe...@cal.berkeley.edu
>>> Phone:  (505) 995-8715  Cell:  (505) 670-9918
>>>
>>> -Original Message-
>>> From: Friam [mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com] On Behalf Of glen ?
>>> Sent: Wednesday, January 18, 2017 5:32 PM
>>> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
>>> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] The root of personality disorders
>>>
>>>
>>> I found this opinion refreshing:
>>>
>>> Narcissistic Personality Disorder and the President-Elect
>>>
>>> http://behaviorismandmentalhealth.com/2017/01/16/narcissisti
>>> c-personality-disorder-and-the-president-elect/
>>>
>>> I particularly liked the (strawman) circularity caricatured by
>>> conflating phenomenology with ontology:
>>>
>>> > Wife: Why is my husband so self-important; why does he have such a
>>> sense of entitlement?
>>> > Psychiatrist: Because he has an illness called 

[FRIAM] ready for a bonfire?

[Marcus Daniels]

Hah, the ACA is just the beginning!  

http://thehill.com/policy/finance/314991-trump-team-prepares-dramatic-cuts



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Re: [FRIAM] The root of personality disorders

[Robert J. Cordingley]

Aren't you now talking about different reasoning models/tasks:

Classification
Diagnosis
Hypothetical Reasoning
Bayesian
Fuzzy logic
etc.

On the other hand I've always felt the medical community named too many 
diseases and conditions after their symptoms usually in a hi-falutin 
format rather than an actual cause, e.g. abdominal aortic aneurysm or 
after the person identifying it, e.g. Alois Alzheimer. Which get's back 
to Glen's circularity.


Robert C

On 1/19/17 7:14 AM, Frank Wimberly wrote:
Point taken, Eric.  That is more realistic.  I was making the point 
that even for non-psychiatric problems the symptoms (partly) define 
the disease.  There are tests like biopsies and cultures of organisms 
that confirm the diagnoses of those diagnoses.  Some psychiatric 
disorders can be confirmed by biopsy (e.g. Alzheimer's) but they are 
often done posthumously.


In my mother-in-law's case they said they thought she had pneumonia.  
I don't remember the details but I know that they tried to drain her 
chest but couldn't even insert a tube.  Four weeks after the first 
symptom she died. Of course they had changed the diagnosis early on. 
Northwestern Memorial Hospital, 1984.


Nick will, I hope, explain the paper at Friam.

Frank

Frank Wimberly
Phone (505) 670-9918

On Jan 19, 2017 6:48 AM, "Eric Charles" 
> wrote:


But Frank doesn't it normally go a bit more like this:

Why is my husband unable to breathe and coughs all the time?

I hypothesize that he has pneumonia - a chest x-ray is a cheap and
fairly reliable test of that hypothesis.

Then let's do a chest x-ray!

Well ma'am, the x-ray shows white lumps, supporting
the hypothesis. Pneumonia is often caused by a bacterial
infection, and because you say he didn't have a cold previously, I
think that is the case here. We can test that hypothesis with the
administration of certain antibiotics.

Then let's get those antibiotics!

Well ma'am, I see that after taking the antibiotics, the white
lumps, difficulty breathing, and coughs resolved. Based on that, I
feel confident that my hypothesis was correct, and that your
husband's pneumonia is now cured.

Wait a minute. How do you know he had pneumonia?

I don't really. But the antibiotics seem to have helped, and
that leads me both to have confidence in my original hypothesis
and, ironically, to not really care that much about the
hypothesis.  All that really matters is that your husband is
better, and that I am likely to give antibiotics again if I meet
someone that presents in the same manner.

Oh.

P.S. See also Nick's paper, for quite different issues. Nick is
interested fundamental issues regarding what gets to count as an
explanation. But note that the discussion above any causality is
quite different than in the prior anecdotes. In this case,
taking-an-xray explains why we are looking at images of white
lumps, and taking-antibiotics explains why the symptoms resolved.
It matters not a bit if the entity referred to as pneumonia is
"real", if it is mere "symptomology" or a viable "causal" agent
responsible for the original difficulties, etc. Not that those are
not interesting questions, just that they are (potentially)
irrelevant to this particular interaction.



---
Eric P. Charles, Ph.D.
Supervisory Survey Statistician
U.S. Marine Corps

On Wed, Jan 18, 2017 at 8:17 PM, Frank Wimberly
> wrote:

Why is my husband unable to breathe and coughs all the time? 
And what is this large white area on his chest x-ray?


He has lung cancer.

How do you know?

Because he has difficulty breathing, he coughs constantly, and
he has a positive chest x-ray.

Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz
Santa Fe, NM 87505

wimber...@gmail.com 
wimbe...@cal.berkeley.edu 
Phone: (505) 995-8715   Cell:
(505) 670-9918 

-Original Message-
From: Friam [mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com
] On Behalf Of glen ?
Sent: Wednesday, January 18, 2017 5:32 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] The root of personality disorders


I found this opinion refreshing:

Narcissistic Personality Disorder and the President-Elect


http://behaviorismandmentalhealth.com/2017/01/16/narcissistic-personality-disorder-and-the-president-elect/



I particularly liked the 

Re: [FRIAM] The root of personality disorders

[Frank Wimberly]

Point taken, Eric.  That is more realistic.  I was making the point that
even for non-psychiatric problems the symptoms (partly) define the
disease.  There are tests like biopsies and cultures of organisms that
confirm the diagnoses of those diagnoses.  Some psychiatric disorders can
be confirmed by biopsy (e.g. Alzheimer's) but they are often done
posthumously.

In my mother-in-law's case they said they thought she had pneumonia.  I
don't remember the details but I know that they tried to drain her chest
but couldn't even insert a tube.  Four weeks after the first symptom she
died.  Of course they had changed the diagnosis early on.  Northwestern
Memorial Hospital, 1984.

Nick will, I hope, explain the paper at Friam.

Frank

Frank Wimberly
Phone (505) 670-9918

On Jan 19, 2017 6:48 AM, "Eric Charles" 
wrote:

> But Frank doesn't it normally go a bit more like this:
>
> Why is my husband unable to breathe and coughs all the time?
>
> I hypothesize that he has pneumonia - a chest x-ray is a cheap and fairly
> reliable test of that hypothesis.
>
> Then let's do a chest x-ray!
>
> Well ma'am, the x-ray shows white lumps, supporting the hypothesis.
> Pneumonia is often caused by a bacterial infection, and because you say he
> didn't have a cold previously, I think that is the case here. We can test
> that hypothesis with the administration of certain antibiotics.
>
> Then let's get those antibiotics!
>
> Well ma'am, I see that after taking the antibiotics, the white lumps,
> difficulty breathing, and coughs resolved. Based on that, I feel confident
> that my hypothesis was correct, and that your husband's pneumonia is now
> cured.
>
> Wait a minute. How do you know he had pneumonia?
>
> I don't really. But the antibiotics seem to have helped, and that leads me
> both to have confidence in my original hypothesis and, ironically, to not
> really care that much about the hypothesis.  All that really matters is
> that your husband is better, and that I am likely to give antibiotics again
> if I meet someone that presents in the same manner.
>
> Oh.
>
> P.S. See also Nick's paper, for quite different issues. Nick is interested
> fundamental issues regarding what gets to count as an explanation. But note
> that the discussion above any causality is quite different than in the
> prior anecdotes. In this case, taking-an-xray explains why we are looking
> at images of white lumps, and taking-antibiotics explains why the symptoms
> resolved. It matters not a bit if the entity referred to as pneumonia is
> "real", if it is mere "symptomology" or a viable "causal" agent responsible
> for the original difficulties, etc. Not that those are not interesting
> questions, just that they are (potentially) irrelevant to this particular
> interaction.
>
>
>
> ---
> Eric P. Charles, Ph.D.
> Supervisory Survey Statistician
> U.S. Marine Corps
> 
>
> On Wed, Jan 18, 2017 at 8:17 PM, Frank Wimberly 
> wrote:
>
>> Why is my husband unable to breathe and coughs all the time?  And what is
>> this large white area on his chest x-ray?
>>
>> He has lung cancer.
>>
>> How do you know?
>>
>> Because he has difficulty breathing, he coughs constantly, and he has a
>> positive chest x-ray.
>>
>> Frank C. Wimberly
>> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz
>> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>>
>> wimber...@gmail.com wimbe...@cal.berkeley.edu
>> Phone:  (505) 995-8715  Cell:  (505) 670-9918
>>
>> -Original Message-
>> From: Friam [mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com] On Behalf Of glen ?
>> Sent: Wednesday, January 18, 2017 5:32 PM
>> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
>> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] The root of personality disorders
>>
>>
>> I found this opinion refreshing:
>>
>> Narcissistic Personality Disorder and the President-Elect
>>
>> http://behaviorismandmentalhealth.com/2017/01/16/
>> narcissistic-personality-disorder-and-the-president-elect/
>>
>> I particularly liked the (strawman) circularity caricatured by conflating
>> phenomenology with ontology:
>>
>> > Wife: Why is my husband so self-important; why does he have such a
>> sense of entitlement?
>> > Psychiatrist: Because he has an illness called narcissistic personality
>> disorder.
>> > Wife: How do you know he has this illness?
>> > Psychiatrist: Because he is so self-important and has such a sense of
>> entitlement.
>>
>> But, personally, seeing [gag] Trump as the epitome of everything that's
>> wrong with our culture, I can sympathize with the idea of using whatever
>> tool we might have available to _demonstrate_ to others how thoroughly
>> unable the man is to fill the role of President.  But we should be careful
>> not to abandon our own principles in the process.
>>
>> --
>> ☣ glen
>>
>> 
>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe
>> 

Re: [FRIAM] The root of personality disorders

[Eric Charles]

But Frank doesn't it normally go a bit more like this:

Why is my husband unable to breathe and coughs all the time?

I hypothesize that he has pneumonia - a chest x-ray is a cheap and fairly
reliable test of that hypothesis.

Then let's do a chest x-ray!

Well ma'am, the x-ray shows white lumps, supporting the hypothesis.
Pneumonia is often caused by a bacterial infection, and because you say he
didn't have a cold previously, I think that is the case here. We can test
that hypothesis with the administration of certain antibiotics.

Then let's get those antibiotics!

Well ma'am, I see that after taking the antibiotics, the white lumps,
difficulty breathing, and coughs resolved. Based on that, I feel confident
that my hypothesis was correct, and that your husband's pneumonia is now
cured.

Wait a minute. How do you know he had pneumonia?

I don't really. But the antibiotics seem to have helped, and that leads me
both to have confidence in my original hypothesis and, ironically, to not
really care that much about the hypothesis.  All that really matters is
that your husband is better, and that I am likely to give antibiotics again
if I meet someone that presents in the same manner.

Oh.

P.S. See also Nick's paper, for quite different issues. Nick is interested
fundamental issues regarding what gets to count as an explanation. But note
that the discussion above any causality is quite different than in the
prior anecdotes. In this case, taking-an-xray explains why we are looking
at images of white lumps, and taking-antibiotics explains why the symptoms
resolved. It matters not a bit if the entity referred to as pneumonia is
"real", if it is mere "symptomology" or a viable "causal" agent responsible
for the original difficulties, etc. Not that those are not interesting
questions, just that they are (potentially) irrelevant to this particular
interaction.



---
Eric P. Charles, Ph.D.
Supervisory Survey Statistician
U.S. Marine Corps


On Wed, Jan 18, 2017 at 8:17 PM, Frank Wimberly  wrote:

> Why is my husband unable to breathe and coughs all the time?  And what is
> this large white area on his chest x-ray?
>
> He has lung cancer.
>
> How do you know?
>
> Because he has difficulty breathing, he coughs constantly, and he has a
> positive chest x-ray.
>
> Frank C. Wimberly
> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz
> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>
> wimber...@gmail.com wimbe...@cal.berkeley.edu
> Phone:  (505) 995-8715  Cell:  (505) 670-9918
>
> -Original Message-
> From: Friam [mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com] On Behalf Of glen ?
> Sent: Wednesday, January 18, 2017 5:32 PM
> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] The root of personality disorders
>
>
> I found this opinion refreshing:
>
> Narcissistic Personality Disorder and the President-Elect
>
> http://behaviorismandmentalhealth.com/2017/01/16/narcissistic-
> personality-disorder-and-the-president-elect/
>
> I particularly liked the (strawman) circularity caricatured by conflating
> phenomenology with ontology:
>
> > Wife: Why is my husband so self-important; why does he have such a sense
> of entitlement?
> > Psychiatrist: Because he has an illness called narcissistic personality
> disorder.
> > Wife: How do you know he has this illness?
> > Psychiatrist: Because he is so self-important and has such a sense of
> entitlement.
>
> But, personally, seeing [gag] Trump as the epitome of everything that's
> wrong with our culture, I can sympathize with the idea of using whatever
> tool we might have available to _demonstrate_ to others how thoroughly
> unable the man is to fill the role of President.  But we should be careful
> not to abandon our own principles in the process.
>
> --
> ☣ glen
>
> 
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe
> http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
>
>
> 
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
>

FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove