Re: [FRIAM] The Second Wave is Gathering

[Marcus Daniels]

Nick, for me, that’s not it either.

I hope that reasonable people won’t waste time protecting unreasonable people 
from themselves, and will focus on protecting other reasonable people, and the 
innocent.   Specifically, to your interpretation, I will not value their regret 
and do not seek it.

The stakes are high, with COVID-19, climate change, and many other things.

Marcus

From: Friam  on behalf of "thompnicks...@gmail.com" 

Reply-To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
Date: Sunday, May 24, 2020 at 9:05 PM
To: 'The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group' 
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] The Second Wave is Gathering

Dale,

What’s the German word for, I told you so, suckah!  I agree that it’s not quite 
schadenfreude, but it’s pretty darned close.

Oh, it appears to be “Ich habe es dir gesagt, Trottel”

That comes off the tongue pretty good, too.  If invective is what one is after, 
it’s hard to beat german.

NIck




Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
thompnicks...@gmail.com
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/


From: Friam  On Behalf Of Dale Schumacher
Sent: Sunday, May 24, 2020 9:30 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] The Second Wave is Gathering

It seems to me that this is a misapplication of the term schadenfreude. Assume 
Russ feels that same way I do, I would clarify that I do not "take delight in 
the suffering of another". Rather that I hope that a population that is making 
horrible choices will directly experience the consequences of those choices, 
and thus perhaps reconsider them. Unfortunately, there will also be a lot of 
collateral damage, but "natural selection" has always been a blunt instrument...


On Sat, May 23, 2020 at 6:12 PM 
mailto:thompnicks...@gmail.com>> wrote:
This emotion, culpable though it may be, is so common there is a german word 
for it, schadenfreude.

Doesn’t that just roll off the tongue?

n

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
thompnicks...@gmail.com
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/


From: Friam mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com>> On 
Behalf Of Russ Abbott
Sent: Saturday, May 23, 2020 5:21 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
mailto:friam@redfish.com>>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] The Second Wave is Gathering

I feel ethically corrupt to find myself hoping for a spike in COVID incidents 
among Trump voters. But in fact, that's what I'm hoping for.



On Sat, May 23, 2020 at 4:11 PM David Eric Smith 
mailto:desm...@santafe.edu>> wrote:
One should do a regression against the popular vote and against the electoral 
vote.  See if the difference between those regression coefficients carries even 
more information than the separate values.

On May 24, 2020, at 4:04 AM, 
mailto:thompnicks...@gmail.com>> 
mailto:thompnicks...@gmail.com>> wrote:

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2020/05/07/as-states-reopen-covid-19-is-spreading-into-even-more-trump-counties/
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Re: [FRIAM] ATTN: George Duncan

[George Duncan]

You are correct, Frank.

On Sun, May 24, 2020 at 8:36 PM Frank Wimberly  wrote:

> "The concept "fair", entails, in its entirety, that the coin will, in the
> long run, produce an equal number of heads and tails with no pattern."
>
> George will correct me and I defer to his greater knowledge of probability
> theory.  I believe a fair coin the distribution of heads/tosses will have
> an expected value of 1/2.  For a large number of tosses the probability of
> an equal number of heads and tails is vanishingly small.
>
> Frank
>
> On Sun, May 24, 2020 at 8:25 PM Eric Charles <
> eric.phillip.char...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> Nick,
>> I feel like this fast-forwarded some how. The first and most important
>> thing Perice wants is for us to think clearly about our concepts, right?
>>
>> So, before we get going into this, the first thing we need to do is
>> figure out whether we agree on the following:
>>
>> The concept "fair", entails, in its entirety, that the coin will, in the
>> long run, produce an equal number of heads and tails with no pattern.
>>
>> That is, while we can hypothesize about whether the coin is fair based on
>> all sorts of things - studying how it was made, measuring it's symmetry,
>> etc. - we recognize that any such evidence would be irrelevant in the face
>> of results from a very large number of flips.
>>
>> Phrased the other way around: The claim that a given coin is "fair", if
>> we are thinking clearly, a claim about what result we will see if we flip
>> the coin a very large number of times. Nothing more, nothing less. Though
>> we expect the construction of a coin to impact whether or not it is "fair",
>> we are definitely *not *asserting that it has any
>> particular construction when we assert that it is fair.**
>>
>>
>>
>> ** Note the connection with our prior discussion of psychological terms
>> and human insides.
>>
>> ---
>> Eric P. Charles, Ph.D.
>> Department of Justice - Personnel Psychologist
>> American University - Adjunct Instructor
>> 
>>
>>
>> On Sun, May 24, 2020 at 2:56 PM  wrote:
>>
>>> All, particularly, George—
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> In an earlier larding, I argued that Peirce’s idea of truth is
>>> essentially a statistical one.   So:
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Is it true that the coin I hold in my hand is a fair coin?
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Let the coin be flipped once, and it comes out heads, what do you
>>> think?  No way of telling, right? OK.  Flip it again.  Heads again.  Two
>>> heads in a row.  P=0.25.  Sure, I guess so.  It could be fair.  Flip it
>>> again. Hmmm. Three heads in a row………*Five* heads in a row. P= 03125.
>>> You know?  I think that coin is probably not fair.  “Fair” in this
>>> formulation means the infinite distribution of H and T coinflips is .5.
>>> “Probably not” means, the chances that this coin’s flips are drawn from a
>>> .5 distribution is less than 0.0312 and my threshold of dis belief is
>>> 0.05.  Thus, when I  say that the coin is not fair, that inference is in
>>> part a statement about me, and the truth of the matter, the limit of the
>>> distribution of flips, is prospective.  But the notion that there can be
>>> some truths of some matters is absolutely essential to science.  Why else
>>> would we flip the coin?
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Now George:  why am I bothering you about this.  Three questions:
>>>
>>>1. Is this valid statistical logic?  I ask because all psychologists
>>>are only amateur statisticians, and many of us bugger up the logic. In
>>>particular, we are known to confuse type I and type II error.
>>>2. Is this Peirce’s logic?  If not, what is Peirce’s logic; and
>>>3. Is Peirce’s logic the ORIGIN of the logic of statistical
>>>inference that I was taught 60 years ago in graduate school**.  If so,
>>>which among the famous statisticians, Pearson, Spearman, Fischer, etc.,
>>>read Peirce?
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> [signed]
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> TLOLTT*
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> * The Little Old Lady Tasting Tea
>>>
>>> ** RIP, Rheem Jarrett
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Nicholas Thompson
>>>
>>> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>>>
>>> Clark University
>>>
>>> thompnicks...@gmail.com
>>>
>>> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> -- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. -  . -..-. .
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>>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>>> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam
>>> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
>>> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
>>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
>>>
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>> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
>> FRIAM-COMIC 

Re: [FRIAM] The Second Wave is Gathering

[thompnickson2]

Dale,

 

What’s the German word for, I told you so, suckah!  I agree that it’s not quite 
schadenfreude, but it’s pretty darned close. 

 

Oh, it appears to be “Ich habe es dir gesagt, Trottel”

 

That comes off the tongue pretty good, too.  If invective is what one is after, 
it’s hard to beat german. 

 

NIck

 

 

 

 

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

  thompnicks...@gmail.com

  
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

 

From: Friam  On Behalf Of Dale Schumacher
Sent: Sunday, May 24, 2020 9:30 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] The Second Wave is Gathering

 

It seems to me that this is a misapplication of the term schadenfreude. Assume 
Russ feels that same way I do, I would clarify that I do not "take delight in 
the suffering of another". Rather that I hope that a population that is making 
horrible choices will directly experience the consequences of those choices, 
and thus perhaps reconsider them. Unfortunately, there will also be a lot of 
collateral damage, but "natural selection" has always been a blunt instrument...

 

 

On Sat, May 23, 2020 at 6:12 PM mailto:thompnicks...@gmail.com> > wrote:

This emotion, culpable though it may be, is so common there is a german word 
for it, schadenfreude.

 

Doesn’t that just roll off the tongue?

 

n

 

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

  thompnicks...@gmail.com

  
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

 

From: Friam mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com> > On 
Behalf Of Russ Abbott
Sent: Saturday, May 23, 2020 5:21 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group mailto:friam@redfish.com> >
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] The Second Wave is Gathering

 

I feel ethically corrupt to find myself hoping for a spike in COVID incidents 
among Trump voters. But in fact, that's what I'm hoping for.

 

 

 

On Sat, May 23, 2020 at 4:11 PM David Eric Smith mailto:desm...@santafe.edu> > wrote:

One should do a regression against the popular vote and against the electoral 
vote.  See if the difference between those regression coefficients carries even 
more information than the separate values.

 

On May 24, 2020, at 4:04 AM, mailto:thompnicks...@gmail.com> > mailto:thompnicks...@gmail.com> > wrote:

 

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2020/05/07/as-states-reopen-covid-19-is-spreading-into-even-more-trump-counties/

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Re: [FRIAM] The Second Wave is Gathering

[Dale Schumacher]

It seems to me that this is a misapplication of the term *schadenfreude*.
Assume Russ feels that same way I do, I would clarify that I do not "take
delight in the suffering of another". Rather that I hope that a population
that is making horrible choices will directly experience the consequences
of those choices, and thus perhaps reconsider them. Unfortunately, there
will also be a lot of collateral damage, but "natural selection" has always
been a blunt instrument...


On Sat, May 23, 2020 at 6:12 PM  wrote:

> This emotion, culpable though it may be, is so common there is a german
> word for it, *schadenfreude*.
>
>
>
> Doesn’t that just roll off the tongue?
>
>
>
> n
>
>
>
> Nicholas Thompson
>
> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>
> Clark University
>
> thompnicks...@gmail.com
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam  *On Behalf Of *Russ Abbott
> *Sent:* Saturday, May 23, 2020 5:21 PM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
> friam@redfish.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] The Second Wave is Gathering
>
>
>
> I feel ethically corrupt to find myself hoping for a spike in COVID
> incidents among Trump voters. But in fact, that's what I'm hoping for.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> On Sat, May 23, 2020 at 4:11 PM David Eric Smith 
> wrote:
>
> One should do a regression against the popular vote and against the
> electoral vote.  See if the difference between those regression
> coefficients carries even more information than the separate values.
>
>
>
> On May 24, 2020, at 4:04 AM,  <
> thompnicks...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>
>
>
> https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2020/05/07/as-states-reopen-covid-19-is-spreading-into-even-more-trump-counties/
>
> -- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. -  . -..-. .
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> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam
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>
>
>
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Re: [FRIAM] ATTN: George Duncan

[Frank Wimberly]

"The concept "fair", entails, in its entirety, that the coin will, in the
long run, produce an equal number of heads and tails with no pattern."

George will correct me and I defer to his greater knowledge of probability
theory.  I believe a fair coin the distribution of heads/tosses will have
an expected value of 1/2.  For a large number of tosses the probability of
an equal number of heads and tails is vanishingly small.

Frank

On Sun, May 24, 2020 at 8:25 PM Eric Charles 
wrote:

> Nick,
> I feel like this fast-forwarded some how. The first and most important
> thing Perice wants is for us to think clearly about our concepts, right?
>
> So, before we get going into this, the first thing we need to do is figure
> out whether we agree on the following:
>
> The concept "fair", entails, in its entirety, that the coin will, in the
> long run, produce an equal number of heads and tails with no pattern.
>
> That is, while we can hypothesize about whether the coin is fair based on
> all sorts of things - studying how it was made, measuring it's symmetry,
> etc. - we recognize that any such evidence would be irrelevant in the face
> of results from a very large number of flips.
>
> Phrased the other way around: The claim that a given coin is "fair", if we
> are thinking clearly, a claim about what result we will see if we flip the
> coin a very large number of times. Nothing more, nothing less. Though we
> expect the construction of a coin to impact whether or not it is "fair", we
> are definitely *not *asserting that it has any particular construction
> when we assert that it is fair.**
>
>
>
> ** Note the connection with our prior discussion of psychological terms
> and human insides.
>
> ---
> Eric P. Charles, Ph.D.
> Department of Justice - Personnel Psychologist
> American University - Adjunct Instructor
> 
>
>
> On Sun, May 24, 2020 at 2:56 PM  wrote:
>
>> All, particularly, George—
>>
>>
>>
>> In an earlier larding, I argued that Peirce’s idea of truth is
>> essentially a statistical one.   So:
>>
>>
>>
>> Is it true that the coin I hold in my hand is a fair coin?
>>
>>
>>
>> Let the coin be flipped once, and it comes out heads, what do you think?
>> No way of telling, right? OK.  Flip it again.  Heads again.  Two heads in a
>> row.  P=0.25.  Sure, I guess so.  It could be fair.  Flip it again. Hmmm.
>> Three heads in a row………*Five* heads in a row. P= 03125.  You know?  I
>> think that coin is probably not fair.  “Fair” in this formulation means the
>> infinite distribution of H and T coinflips is .5.  “Probably not” means,
>> the chances that this coin’s flips are drawn from a .5 distribution is less
>> than 0.0312 and my threshold of dis belief is 0.05.  Thus, when I  say that
>> the coin is not fair, that inference is in part a statement about me, and
>> the truth of the matter, the limit of the distribution of flips, is
>> prospective.  But the notion that there can be some truths of some matters
>> is absolutely essential to science.  Why else would we flip the coin?
>>
>>
>>
>> Now George:  why am I bothering you about this.  Three questions:
>>
>>1. Is this valid statistical logic?  I ask because all psychologists
>>are only amateur statisticians, and many of us bugger up the logic. In
>>particular, we are known to confuse type I and type II error.
>>2. Is this Peirce’s logic?  If not, what is Peirce’s logic; and
>>3. Is Peirce’s logic the ORIGIN of the logic of statistical inference
>>that I was taught 60 years ago in graduate school**.  If so, which among
>>the famous statisticians, Pearson, Spearman, Fischer, etc., read Peirce?
>>
>>
>>
>> [signed]
>>
>>
>>
>> TLOLTT*
>>
>>
>>
>> * The Little Old Lady Tasting Tea
>>
>> ** RIP, Rheem Jarrett
>>
>>
>>
>> Nicholas Thompson
>>
>> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>>
>> Clark University
>>
>> thompnicks...@gmail.com
>>
>> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> -- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. -  . -..-. .
>> ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ...
>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam
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>>
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>


-- 
Frank Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz
Santa Fe, NM 87505
505 670-9918
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FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv

Re: [FRIAM] ATTN: George Duncan

[Eric Charles]

Nick,
I feel like this fast-forwarded some how. The first and most important
thing Perice wants is for us to think clearly about our concepts, right?

So, before we get going into this, the first thing we need to do is figure
out whether we agree on the following:

The concept "fair", entails, in its entirety, that the coin will, in the
long run, produce an equal number of heads and tails with no pattern.

That is, while we can hypothesize about whether the coin is fair based on
all sorts of things - studying how it was made, measuring it's symmetry,
etc. - we recognize that any such evidence would be irrelevant in the face
of results from a very large number of flips.

Phrased the other way around: The claim that a given coin is "fair", if we
are thinking clearly, a claim about what result we will see if we flip the
coin a very large number of times. Nothing more, nothing less. Though we
expect the construction of a coin to impact whether or not it is "fair", we
are definitely *not *asserting that it has any particular construction when
we assert that it is fair.**



** Note the connection with our prior discussion of psychological terms and
human insides.

---
Eric P. Charles, Ph.D.
Department of Justice - Personnel Psychologist
American University - Adjunct Instructor



On Sun, May 24, 2020 at 2:56 PM  wrote:

> All, particularly, George—
>
>
>
> In an earlier larding, I argued that Peirce’s idea of truth is essentially
> a statistical one.   So:
>
>
>
> Is it true that the coin I hold in my hand is a fair coin?
>
>
>
> Let the coin be flipped once, and it comes out heads, what do you think?
> No way of telling, right? OK.  Flip it again.  Heads again.  Two heads in a
> row.  P=0.25.  Sure, I guess so.  It could be fair.  Flip it again. Hmmm.
> Three heads in a row………*Five* heads in a row. P= 03125.  You know?  I
> think that coin is probably not fair.  “Fair” in this formulation means the
> infinite distribution of H and T coinflips is .5.  “Probably not” means,
> the chances that this coin’s flips are drawn from a .5 distribution is less
> than 0.0312 and my threshold of dis belief is 0.05.  Thus, when I  say that
> the coin is not fair, that inference is in part a statement about me, and
> the truth of the matter, the limit of the distribution of flips, is
> prospective.  But the notion that there can be some truths of some matters
> is absolutely essential to science.  Why else would we flip the coin?
>
>
>
> Now George:  why am I bothering you about this.  Three questions:
>
>1. Is this valid statistical logic?  I ask because all psychologists
>are only amateur statisticians, and many of us bugger up the logic. In
>particular, we are known to confuse type I and type II error.
>2. Is this Peirce’s logic?  If not, what is Peirce’s logic; and
>3. Is Peirce’s logic the ORIGIN of the logic of statistical inference
>that I was taught 60 years ago in graduate school**.  If so, which among
>the famous statisticians, Pearson, Spearman, Fischer, etc., read Peirce?
>
>
>
> [signed]
>
>
>
> TLOLTT*
>
>
>
> * The Little Old Lady Tasting Tea
>
> ** RIP, Rheem Jarrett
>
>
>
> Nicholas Thompson
>
> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>
> Clark University
>
> thompnicks...@gmail.com
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
>
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>
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Re: [FRIAM] proven COVID treatment

[Frank Wimberly]

I don't know about whether cold compresses were used.  In those days the
less we knew the better.  The guy said to her when he was arrested, "You
ruined my life".  Talk about a thought disorder.

On Sun, May 24, 2020 at 6:43 PM Prof David West 
wrote:

> Sorry your daughter had that experience. I would bet large sums that it
> was not the MDMA that caused the harm. It was either overheating of the
> brain (MDMA does raise body temperature and if physical activity, like
> dancing, is involved it can cause blood/body temps above 101 degrees. Or,
> it was a "cutting agent" as both Molly and Ecstasy in pill form are very
> unlikely to be pure.
>
> If you know, did the hospital treatment include cold compresses and
> drinking water? If yes, they probably determined that her symptoms were
> simply overheating.
>
> happy she is OK and boyfriend is out of her and your lives
>
> davew
>
>
> On Sun, May 24, 2020, at 6:22 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote:
>
> Dave, I was expecting you to ask, "Have you ever tried it, Frank?"  I
> would have said that I hadn't but that my daughter had.  Unintentionally.
> She and her "boyfriend", Stevie Ray (eye roll), went to a party where
> Mollies were being used.  Somebody spiked her drink with something.  On the
> way home she started having convulsions so Stevie called 911.  An ambulance
> showed up and so did the police.  Daughter went to the hospital and was
> released feeling well.  Stevie was taken to jail on an outstanding
> warrant.  She's doing fine years later.
>
> ---
> Frank C. Wimberly
> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>
> 505 670-9918
> Santa Fe, NM
>
> On Sun, May 24, 2020, 5:55 PM Prof David West 
> wrote:
>
>
> Nick, I will echo Frank's admonition, "do not take Ecstacy."  But ... if
> you do, take it with LSD — called "candy tripping" — synergistic effects,
> plus pretty much guarantees that you will not have a "bad trip."
>
> davew
>
>
> On Sun, May 24, 2020, at 10:44 AM, thompnicks...@gmail.com wrote:
>
> David,
>
>
>
> This is how I  know you are trolling me:
>
>
>
> Proof positive that MDMA prevents COVID from getting past your nasal /
> mouth tissue where it causes minimal harm.
>
>
>
> Quite apart from whether MDMA prevents COVID pneumonia, this is a
> wonderful example of intelligent people taking science into their own
> hands, a phenomenon that we discussed briefly during zFRIAM on zFRIDAY.
> All of us do that!  Why?  Or more interestingly: When?
>
>
>
> Nick
>
> Nicholas Thompson
>
> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>
> Clark University
>
> thompnicks...@gmail.com
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> -Original Message-
> From: Friam  On Behalf Of Prof David West
> Sent: Sunday, May 24, 2020 6:45 AM
> To: friam@redfish.com
> Subject: [FRIAM] proven COVID treatment
>
>
>
>
> Some friends I made in Amsterdam live in a commune — 30-32 of them. They
> had to go into quarantine six weeks ago with two members of the group
> testing positive for COVID. So they were pretty confident that they would
> all get the disease while in quarantine.
>
>
>
> Reading that the virus does best in cool moist environments they decided
> to take daily doses of MDMA — which raises body temperature and dehydrates.
>
>
>
> When the left quarantine last week, all of them tested positive for the
> antibodies but none of them had suffered symptoms beyond mild sniffles.
>
>
>
> Proof positive that MDMA prevents COVID from getting past your nasal /
> mouth tissue where is causes minimal harm.
>
>
>
> Right?
>
>
>
> davew
>
>
>
> -- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. -  . -..-. .
> ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ...
>
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>
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>
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>
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>
>
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> 

Re: [FRIAM] proven COVID treatment

[Prof David West]

Sorry your daughter had that experience. I would bet large sums that it was not 
the MDMA that caused the harm. It was either overheating of the brain (MDMA 
does raise body temperature and if physical activity, like dancing, is involved 
it can cause blood/body temps above 101 degrees. Or, it was a "cutting agent" 
as both Molly and Ecstasy in pill form are very unlikely to be pure.

If you know, did the hospital treatment include cold compresses and drinking 
water? If yes, they probably determined that her symptoms were simply 
overheating.

happy she is OK and boyfriend is out of her and your lives

davew


On Sun, May 24, 2020, at 6:22 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote:
> Dave, I was expecting you to ask, "Have you ever tried it, Frank?" I would 
> have said that I hadn't but that my daughter had. Unintentionally. She and 
> her "boyfriend", Stevie Ray (eye roll), went to a party where Mollies were 
> being used. Somebody spiked her drink with something. On the way home she 
> started having convulsions so Stevie called 911. An ambulance showed up and 
> so did the police. Daughter went to the hospital and was released feeling 
> well. Stevie was taken to jail on an outstanding warrant. She's doing fine 
> years later. 
> 
> ---
> Frank C. Wimberly
> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, 
> Santa Fe, NM 87505
> 
> 505 670-9918
> Santa Fe, NM
> 
> On Sun, May 24, 2020, 5:55 PM Prof David West  wrote:
>> __
>> Nick, I will echo Frank's admonition, "do not take Ecstacy." But ... if you 
>> do, take it with LSD — called "candy tripping" — synergistic effects, plus 
>> pretty much guarantees that you will not have a "bad trip."
>> 
>> davew
>> 
>> 
>> On Sun, May 24, 2020, at 10:44 AM, thompnicks...@gmail.com wrote:
>>> David,

>>> 

>>> This is how I know you are trolling me:

>>> 

>>> Proof positive that MDMA prevents COVID from getting past your nasal / 
>>> mouth tissue where it causes minimal harm.

>>> 

>>> Quite apart from whether MDMA prevents COVID pneumonia, this is a wonderful 
>>> example of intelligent people taking science into their own hands, a 
>>> phenomenon that we discussed briefly during zFRIAM on zFRIDAY. All of us do 
>>> that! Why? Or more interestingly: When? 

>>> 

>>> Nick

>>> Nicholas Thompson

>>> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

>>> Clark University

>>> thompnicks...@gmail.com

>>> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

>>> 

>>> 

>>> 

>>> 

>>> -Original Message-
>>> From: Friam  On Behalf Of Prof David West
>>> Sent: Sunday, May 24, 2020 6:45 AM
>>> To: friam@redfish.com
>>> Subject: [FRIAM] proven COVID treatment
>>> 

>>> 

>>> Some friends I made in Amsterdam live in a commune — 30-32 of them. They 
>>> had to go into quarantine six weeks ago with two members of the group 
>>> testing positive for COVID. So they were pretty confident that they would 
>>> all get the disease while in quarantine.

>>> 

>>> Reading that the virus does best in cool moist environments they decided to 
>>> take daily doses of MDMA — which raises body temperature and dehydrates.

>>> 

>>> When the left quarantine last week, all of them tested positive for the 
>>> antibodies but none of them had suffered symptoms beyond mild sniffles.

>>> 

>>> Proof positive that MDMA prevents COVID from getting past your nasal / 
>>> mouth tissue where is causes minimal harm.

>>> 

>>> Right?

>>> 

>>> davew

>>> 

>>> -- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. -  . -..-. . 
>>> ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ...

>>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv

>>> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe 
>>> http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com

>>> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/

>>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/

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>>> ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ...
>>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>>> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
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>>> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
>>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ 
>>> 
>> 
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> FRIAM-COMIC 

Re: [FRIAM] Corvid-nerd request

[Prof David West]

Nick,

The probability of any individual in the US having COVID-19 (known cases 
divided by population) is .00518

How many strangers — people you do not know are disease free or are 
non-infecting with antibodies — do you encounter, close enough to exchange 
droplets, in Santa Fe?

Add the number of strangers that anyone in your inner circle might similarly 
encounter?

Let's assume that an encounter guarantees transmission, such that if you/yours 
encounters someone with the disease, you will be infected.

So, if you or yours encounter ten strangers, your odds of getting the disease 
increase to .0518. If a hundred, then .518

The only difference in risk between Santa Fe and Massachusetts is the number of 
strangers you/yours encounter. That number is pretty much under your control, 
so there is some, but relatively minor, difference in risk.

using cases/population data, the odds of a stranger having covid in Hampshire 
county is 830/160,000 = .00519. In Santa Fe County, 126/150,000 = .00084.

The odds that a stranger has the virus is six times greater in Hampshire.

You control the number of strangers, so you control the risk.

Most of the other factors that I can think of — e.g. likelihood of a droplet 
exchange, likelihood of transmission — reduce the risk from the worst case 
numbers above.

A factor that would increase risk concerns the likelihood that a stranger has 
the disease given smaller population units than the county; i.e. 200 known 
cases in a 300 resident nursing home = 66%. Stay out of nursing homes!

Go to Mass and continue to be a hermit.

Caveat: I grabbed the first numbers on Google that presented themselves.

Statisticians feel free to tear my argument apart.

davew


On Sun, May 24, 2020, at 3:12 PM, thompnicks...@gmail.com wrote:
> No, no. I am not being picky. Or at least, I hope not. What I want to know is 
> the relative risk of staying here in Santa Fe County NM or going to Hampshire 
> County MA. (never mind getting there, that’s a whole different issue). I 
> think that decision is best shaped by knowing how many new cases there are, 
> full stop in, and/or how many new cases there are per population. I may be 
> being REALLY DUMB, but I don’t think I can find that info from the NYT site, 
> any more. 

> 

> By the way, I am mixing up my CORvid threads with my COvid threads. 

> 

> Nick

> 

> Nicholas Thompson

> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

> Clark University

> thompnicks...@gmail.com

> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

> 

> 

> 


> *From:* Friam  *On Behalf Of *Frank Wimberly
> *Sent:* Sunday, May 24, 2020 3:06 PM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Corvid-nerd request

> 

> Picky, picky.

> 

> Seriously, ...

> 

> On Sun, May 24, 2020 at 3:05 PM  wrote:

>> Yes. Thanks, Frank. That’s where it used to be. But the “case growth rate” 
>> is only represented graphically, and is becoming increasingly a useless 
>> number because it is SO dependent on howmany cases the county has already 
>> had. What I am really looking for is the daily case increase, or even 
>> better, the daily case increase per 100 k pop.

>> 

>> Thanks,

>> N

>> 

>> Nicholas Thompson

>> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

>> Clark University

>> thompnicks...@gmail.com

>> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

>> 

>> 


>> *From:* Friam  *On Behalf Of *Frank Wimberly
>> *Sent:* Sunday, May 24, 2020 3:01 PM
>> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
>> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Corvid-nerd request

>> 

>> https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html?campaign_id=9=edit_nn_20200524_id=18744=the-morning_id=60903300_id=29017=1_id=03a68c161f5d16347943cf2195691293
>>  

>> 

>> On Sun, May 24, 2020 at 2:40 PM  wrote:

>>> Suddenly, I cannot find anywhere a map of weekly or daily average, raw or 
>>> per-population, county level, new case corvid data, i.e.. I am sure I am 
>>> being dumb. Somebody, help me to not be dumb.

>>> 

>>> Thanks,

>>> 

>>> Nick

>>> 

>>> Nicholas Thompson

>>> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

>>> Clark University

>>> thompnicks...@gmail.com

>>> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

>>> 

>>> 


>>> -- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. -  . -..-. . 
>>> ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ...
>>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>>> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
>>> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
>>> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
>>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/

>> 

>> 

>> --


>> Frank Wimberly
>> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz
>> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>> 505 670-9918


>> -- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. -  . -..-. . ... 
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>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 

Re: [FRIAM] proven COVID treatment

[Frank Wimberly]

Dave, I was expecting you to ask, "Have you ever tried it, Frank?"  I would
have said that I hadn't but that my daughter had.  Unintentionally.  She
and her "boyfriend", Stevie Ray (eye roll), went to a party where Mollies
were being used.  Somebody spiked her drink with something.  On the way
home she started having convulsions so Stevie called 911.  An ambulance
showed up and so did the police.  Daughter went to the hospital and was
released feeling well.  Stevie was taken to jail on an outstanding
warrant.  She's doing fine years later.

---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Sun, May 24, 2020, 5:55 PM Prof David West  wrote:

> Nick, I will echo Frank's admonition, "do not take Ecstacy."  But ... if
> you do, take it with LSD — called "candy tripping" — synergistic effects,
> plus pretty much guarantees that you will not have a "bad trip."
>
> davew
>
>
> On Sun, May 24, 2020, at 10:44 AM, thompnicks...@gmail.com wrote:
>
> David,
>
>
>
> This is how I  know you are trolling me:
>
>
>
> Proof positive that MDMA prevents COVID from getting past your nasal /
> mouth tissue where it causes minimal harm.
>
>
>
> Quite apart from whether MDMA prevents COVID pneumonia, this is a
> wonderful example of intelligent people taking science into their own
> hands, a phenomenon that we discussed briefly during zFRIAM on zFRIDAY.
> All of us do that!  Why?  Or more interestingly: When?
>
>
>
> Nick
>
> Nicholas Thompson
>
> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>
> Clark University
>
> thompnicks...@gmail.com
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
>
>
>
> -Original Message-
> From: Friam  On Behalf Of Prof David West
> Sent: Sunday, May 24, 2020 6:45 AM
> To: friam@redfish.com
> Subject: [FRIAM] proven COVID treatment
>
>
>
> Some friends I made in Amsterdam live in a commune — 30-32 of them. They
> had to go into quarantine six weeks ago with two members of the group
> testing positive for COVID. So they were pretty confident that they would
> all get the disease while in quarantine.
>
>
>
> Reading that the virus does best in cool moist environments they decided
> to take daily doses of MDMA — which raises body temperature and dehydrates.
>
>
>
> When the left quarantine last week, all of them tested positive for the
> antibodies but none of them had suffered symptoms beyond mild sniffles.
>
>
>
> Proof positive that MDMA prevents COVID from getting past your nasal /
> mouth tissue where is causes minimal harm.
>
>
>
> Right?
>
>
>
> davew
>
>
>
> -- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. -  . -..-. .
> ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ...
>
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>
> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe
> http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
>
> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
>
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>
>
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Re: [FRIAM] ATTN: George Duncan

[George Duncan]

Hey, Nick, glad to see you continuing to address these basic statistical
questions. I'll respond from a Bayesian perspective, which I think is
mostly compatible with Pierce's writings though I haven't read much at all
of his.

First, most all Bayesians and indeed perhaps a majority of statisticians
would consider the posed question, "Is it true that the coin I hold in my
hand is a fair coin?", can have no physical meaning as no such coin has
"real-world" existence, certainly no one could construct such a coin.

Second, to me and other Bayesians (and perhaps Pierce) a more meaningful
question goes something like this:

*I entertain that the coin I hold has a certain probability p of being
flipped heads. Prior to ever flipping the coin I have a probability
distribution over possible values of p. This is based on everything I know
about the coin (who gave it to me, what it looks like, my past experience
in flipping other coins, etc.) This probability distribution may well be
personal to me. A common way of characterizing such distributions on p is
through one of the family of beta distribution, a family chosen because it
is plausible for cases where the coin looks ordinary and there is nothing
strange in how I came by the coin. The nice thing mathematically is that
after flipping the coin, say seven times and getting 2 heads and 5 tails,
the posterior distribution, which now reflects your uncertainty given this
experience, is again a beta distribution with just different parameters.
Beautiful! If I have time tomorrow I'll show you how this works.*

Third, there are hints of frequency theory (so non-Bayesian) perspective in
what you write, most likely reflective of those statistics courses you took
way back when--60 years ago!. As I said, the Bayesian perspective is I
believe more compatible with Pierce. Long ago statisticians like Pearson
and R.A. Fisher were not Bayesians. Statisticians today are much more
likely to be Bayesians. The reason for this is mainly twofold, (1) the wide
range of applications in areas like engineering, economics and medicine
that are amenable to Bayesian analysis, and (2) the enormous increase in
computational power that makes implementation of Bayesian analysis possible
(few problems are as easy as the coin toss, and what if the prior
distibution is not in beta form?).

George Duncan
Emeritus Professor of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University
georgeduncanart.com
See posts on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram
Land: (505) 983-6895
Mobile: (505) 469-4671

My art theme: Dynamic exposition of the tension between matrix order and
luminous chaos.

"Attempt what is not certain. Certainty may or may not come later. It may
then be a valuable delusion."
>From "Notes to myself on beginning a painting" by Richard Diebenkorn.

"It's that knife-edge of uncertainty where we come alive to our truest
power." Joanna Macy.




On Sun, May 24, 2020 at 12:56 PM  wrote:

> All, particularly, George—
>
>
>
> In an earlier larding, I argued that Peirce’s idea of truth is essentially
> a statistical one.   So:
>
>
>
> Is it true that the coin I hold in my hand is a fair coin?
>
>
>
> Let the coin be flipped once, and it comes out heads, what do you think?
> No way of telling, right? OK.  Flip it again.  Heads again.  Two heads in a
> row.  P=0.25.  Sure, I guess so.  It could be fair.  Flip it again. Hmmm.
> Three heads in a row………*Five* heads in a row. P= 03125.  You know?  I
> think that coin is probably not fair.  “Fair” in this formulation means the
> infinite distribution of H and T coinflips is .5.  “Probably not” means,
> the chances that this coin’s flips are drawn from a .5 distribution is less
> than 0.0312 and my threshold of dis belief is 0.05.  Thus, when I  say that
> the coin is not fair, that inference is in part a statement about me, and
> the truth of the matter, the limit of the distribution of flips, is
> prospective.  But the notion that there can be some truths of some matters
> is absolutely essential to science.  Why else would we flip the coin?
>
>
>
> Now George:  why am I bothering you about this.  Three questions:
>
>1. Is this valid statistical logic?  I ask because all psychologists
>are only amateur statisticians, and many of us bugger up the logic. In
>particular, we are known to confuse type I and type II error.
>2. Is this Peirce’s logic?  If not, what is Peirce’s logic; and
>3. Is Peirce’s logic the ORIGIN of the logic of statistical inference
>that I was taught 60 years ago in graduate school**.  If so, which among
>the famous statisticians, Pearson, Spearman, Fischer, etc., read Peirce?
>
>
>
> [signed]
>
>
>
> TLOLTT*
>
>
>
> * The Little Old Lady Tasting Tea
>
> ** RIP, Rheem Jarrett
>
>
>
> Nicholas Thompson
>
> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>
> Clark University
>
> thompnicks...@gmail.com
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
>
>
-- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. -  . -..-. . ... 
... 

Re: [FRIAM] proven COVID treatment

[Prof David West]

Nick, I will echo Frank's admonition, "do not take Ecstacy." But ... if you do, 
take it with LSD — called "candy tripping" — synergistic effects, plus pretty 
much guarantees that you will not have a "bad trip."

davew


On Sun, May 24, 2020, at 10:44 AM, thompnicks...@gmail.com wrote:
> David,

> 

> This is how I know you are trolling me:

> 

> Proof positive that MDMA prevents COVID from getting past your nasal / mouth 
> tissue where it causes minimal harm.

> 

> Quite apart from whether MDMA prevents COVID pneumonia, this is a wonderful 
> example of intelligent people taking science into their own hands, a 
> phenomenon that we discussed briefly during zFRIAM on zFRIDAY. All of us do 
> that! Why? Or more interestingly: When? 

> 

> Nick

> Nicholas Thompson

> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

> Clark University

> thompnicks...@gmail.com

> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

> 

> 

> 


> -Original Message-
> From: Friam  On Behalf Of Prof David West
> Sent: Sunday, May 24, 2020 6:45 AM
> To: friam@redfish.com
> Subject: [FRIAM] proven COVID treatment

> 

> Some friends I made in Amsterdam live in a commune — 30-32 of them. They had 
> to go into quarantine six weeks ago with two members of the group testing 
> positive for COVID. So they were pretty confident that they would all get the 
> disease while in quarantine.

> 

> Reading that the virus does best in cool moist environments they decided to 
> take daily doses of MDMA — which raises body temperature and dehydrates.

> 

> When the left quarantine last week, all of them tested positive for the 
> antibodies but none of them had suffered symptoms beyond mild sniffles.

> 

> Proof positive that MDMA prevents COVID from getting past your nasal / mouth 
> tissue where is causes minimal harm.

> 

> Right?

> 

> davew

> 

> -- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. -  . -..-. . ... 
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> 
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Re: [FRIAM] proven COVID treatment

[Prof David West]

As Nick and Marcus noted, I was trolling / teasing with this post. MDMA, aka 
Molly and Ecstacy is a mood altering, mildly psychogenic party drug. Illegal, 
even in Europe, but there is is not prosecuted much.

Can't say how the drug affects the body's multiple systems because next to zero 
research is being done — is is frowned upon research like all psychedelics.

My friends' experience was interesting but anecdotal and probably coincidental.

davew


On Sun, May 24, 2020, at 10:39 AM, Tom Johnson wrote:
> So what is MDMA?
> 
> 3,4-Methylenedioxymethamphetamine, commonly known as ecstasy or molly, is a 
> psychoactive drug primarily used for recreational purposes. The desired 
> effects include altered sensations, increased energy, empathy, as well as 
> pleasure. When taken by mouth, effects begin in 30 to 45 minutes and last 3 
> to 6 hours. Wikipedia 
> 
> And how do we think it works in the body's multiple systems?
> Tom 
> 
> On Sun, May 24, 2020, 6:45 AM Prof David West  wrote:
>> Some friends I made in Amsterdam live in a commune — 30-32 of them. They had 
>> to go into quarantine six weeks ago with two members of the group testing 
>> positive for COVID. So they were pretty confident that they would all get 
>> the disease while in quarantine.
>> 
>>  Reading that the virus does best in cool moist environments they decided to 
>> take daily doses of MDMA — which raises body temperature and dehydrates.
>> 
>>  When the left quarantine last week, all of them tested positive for the 
>> antibodies but none of them had suffered symptoms beyond mild sniffles. 
>> 
>>  Proof positive that MDMA prevents COVID from getting past your nasal / 
>> mouth tissue where is causes minimal harm.
>> 
>>  Right?
>> 
>>  davew
>> 
>>  -- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. -  . -..-. . 
>> ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ...
>>  FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>>  Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
>>  un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
>>  archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
>>  FRIAM-COMIC  
>> http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ 
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> 
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Re: [FRIAM] God

[thompnickson2]

Sorry Russ.  It was in a hyperlink: 

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/311349078_The_many_perils_of_ejecti
ve_anthropomorphism

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
thompnicks...@gmail.com
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
 


-Original Message-
From: Friam  On Behalf Of Russell Standish
Sent: Sunday, May 24, 2020 4:27 PM
To: 'The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group' 
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] God

On Sat, May 23, 2020 at 09:59:37PM -0600, thompnicks...@gmail.com wrote:
> Hi Russ,
> 
>  
> 
> Hawking my wares again.  I am sorry but SOMEBODY has to read this 
> crap.  The argument of this paper is that the flow of inference is 
> actually in the other direction.  We model our view of ourselves on our
experience with others.
> 

What paper? What argument?


-- 


Dr Russell StandishPhone 0425 253119 (mobile)
Principal, High Performance Coders hpco...@hpcoders.com.au
  http://www.hpcoders.com.au


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Re: [FRIAM] God

[Russell Standish]

On Sat, May 23, 2020 at 09:59:37PM -0600, thompnicks...@gmail.com wrote:
> Hi Russ,
> 
>  
> 
> Hawking my wares again.  I am sorry but SOMEBODY has to read this crap.  The
> argument of this paper is that the flow of inference is actually in the other
> direction.  We model our view of ourselves on our experience with others.  
> 

What paper? What argument?


-- 


Dr Russell StandishPhone 0425 253119 (mobile)
Principal, High Performance Coders hpco...@hpcoders.com.au
  http://www.hpcoders.com.au


-- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. -  . -..-. . ... 
... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ...
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Re: [FRIAM] Corvid-nerd request

[thompnickson2]

Yes.  It’s definitely more than that. 

 

N

 

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

  thompnicks...@gmail.com

  
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

 

From: Friam  On Behalf Of Frank Wimberly
Sent: Sunday, May 24, 2020 3:19 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Corvid-nerd request

 

It was an intertextual reference.  When Pat something on the Smother Brothers 
Show was running  for president he gave a speech in which he said, "My opponent 
says I have no foreign policy experience, that I lack knowledge of the fiscal 
policy, that I have no understanding of welfare policy, that I have no 
experience as an executive.  Well, I say picky picky."

 

I was happy to see that Santa Fe County has experienced only three deaths.  
It's unlikely that your county in Massachusetts has that low a rate, isn't it.

 

Frank

 

On Sun, May 24, 2020 at 3:12 PM mailto:thompnicks...@gmail.com> > wrote:

No, no.  I am not being picky.  Or at least, I hope not.  What I want to know 
is the  relative risk of staying here in Santa Fe County NM or going to 
Hampshire County MA.  (never mind getting there, that’s a whole different 
issue).  I think that decision is best shaped by knowing how many new cases 
there are, full stop in, and/or how many new cases there are per population.  I 
may be being REALLY DUMB, but I don’t think I can find that info from the NYT 
site, any more.  

 

By the way, I am mixing up my CORvid threads with my COvid threads.  

 

Nick 

 

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

  thompnicks...@gmail.com

  
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

 

From: Friam mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com> > On 
Behalf Of Frank Wimberly
Sent: Sunday, May 24, 2020 3:06 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group mailto:friam@redfish.com> >
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Corvid-nerd request

 

Picky, picky.

 

Seriously, ...

 

On Sun, May 24, 2020 at 3:05 PM mailto:thompnicks...@gmail.com> > wrote:

Yes.  Thanks, Frank.  That’s where it used to be.  But the “case growth rate” 
is only represented graphically, and is becoming increasingly a useless number 
because it is SO dependent on howmany cases the county has already had.  What I 
am really looking for is the daily case increase, or even better, the daily 
case increase per 100 k pop. 

 

Thanks, 

N

 

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

  thompnicks...@gmail.com

  
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

 

From: Friam mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com> > On 
Behalf Of Frank Wimberly
Sent: Sunday, May 24, 2020 3:01 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group mailto:friam@redfish.com> >
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Corvid-nerd request

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html?campaign_id=9
 

 
=edit_nn_20200524_id=18744=the-morning_id=60903300_id=29017=1_id=03a68c161f5d16347943cf2195691293
  

 

On Sun, May 24, 2020 at 2:40 PM mailto:thompnicks...@gmail.com> > wrote:

Suddenly, I cannot find anywhere a map of weekly or daily average, raw or 
per-population, county level, new case corvid data, i.e..  I am sure I am being 
dumb.  Somebody, help me to not be dumb.

 

Thanks, 

 

Nick 

 

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

thompnicks...@gmail.com  

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

 

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-- 

Frank Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz
Santa Fe, NM 87505
505 670-9918

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-- 

Frank Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz
Santa Fe, NM 87505
505 670-9918

-- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. -  . -..-. . 

Re: [FRIAM] Corvid-nerd request

[Frank Wimberly]

It was an intertextual reference.  When Pat something on the Smother
Brothers Show was running  for president he gave a speech in which he said,
"My opponent says I have no foreign policy experience, that I lack
knowledge of the fiscal policy, that I have no understanding of welfare
policy, that I have no experience as an executive.  Well, I say picky
picky."

I was happy to see that Santa Fe County has experienced only three deaths.
It's unlikely that your county in Massachusetts has that low a rate, isn't
it.

Frank

On Sun, May 24, 2020 at 3:12 PM  wrote:

> No, no.  I am not being picky.  Or at least, I hope not.  What I want to
> know is the  relative risk of staying here in Santa Fe County NM or going
> to Hampshire County MA.  (never mind getting there, that’s a whole
> different issue).  I think that decision is best shaped by knowing how many
> new cases there are, full stop in, and/or how many new cases there are per
> population.  I may be being REALLY DUMB, but I don’t think I can find that
> info from the NYT site, any more.
>
>
>
> By the way, I am mixing up my CORvid threads with my COvid threads.
>
>
>
> Nick
>
>
>
> Nicholas Thompson
>
> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>
> Clark University
>
> thompnicks...@gmail.com
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam  *On Behalf Of *Frank Wimberly
> *Sent:* Sunday, May 24, 2020 3:06 PM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
> friam@redfish.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Corvid-nerd request
>
>
>
> Picky, picky.
>
>
>
> Seriously, ...
>
>
>
> On Sun, May 24, 2020 at 3:05 PM  wrote:
>
> Yes.  Thanks, Frank.  That’s where it used to be.  But the “case growth
> rate” is only represented graphically, and is becoming increasingly a
> useless number because it is SO dependent on howmany cases the county has
> already had.  What I am really looking for is the daily case increase, or
> even better, the daily case increase per 100 k pop.
>
>
>
> Thanks,
>
> N
>
>
>
> Nicholas Thompson
>
> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>
> Clark University
>
> thompnicks...@gmail.com
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam  *On Behalf Of *Frank Wimberly
> *Sent:* Sunday, May 24, 2020 3:01 PM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
> friam@redfish.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Corvid-nerd request
>
>
>
>
> https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html?campaign_id=9=edit_nn_20200524_id=18744=the-morning_id=60903300_id=29017=1_id=03a68c161f5d16347943cf2195691293
>
>
>
>
> On Sun, May 24, 2020 at 2:40 PM  wrote:
>
> Suddenly, I cannot find anywhere a map of weekly or daily average, raw or
> per-population, county level, new case corvid data, i.e..  I am sure I am
> being dumb.  Somebody, help me to not be dumb.
>
>
>
> Thanks,
>
>
>
> Nick
>
>
>
> Nicholas Thompson
>
> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>
> Clark University
>
> thompnicks...@gmail.com
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
>
>
> -- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. -  . -..-. .
> ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ...
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam
> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
>
>
>
>
> --
>
> Frank Wimberly
> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz
> Santa Fe, NM 87505
> 505 670-9918
>
> -- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. -  . -..-. .
> ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ...
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam
> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
>
>
>
>
> --
>
> Frank Wimberly
> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz
> Santa Fe, NM 87505
> 505 670-9918
> -- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. -  . -..-. .
> ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ...
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam
> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
>


-- 
Frank Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz
Santa Fe, NM 87505
505 670-9918
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Re: [FRIAM] Corvid-nerd request

[Marcus Daniels]

There’s a lot here..

https://github.com/starschema/COVID-19-data

From: Friam  on behalf of "thompnicks...@gmail.com" 

Reply-To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
Date: Sunday, May 24, 2020 at 2:13 PM
To: 'The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group' 
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Corvid-nerd request

No, no.  I am not being picky.  Or at least, I hope not.  What I want to know 
is the  relative risk of staying here in Santa Fe County NM or going to 
Hampshire County MA.  (never mind getting there, that’s a whole different 
issue).  I think that decision is best shaped by knowing how many new cases 
there are, full stop in, and/or how many new cases there are per population.  I 
may be being REALLY DUMB, but I don’t think I can find that info from the NYT 
site, any more.

By the way, I am mixing up my CORvid threads with my COvid threads.

Nick

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
thompnicks...@gmail.com
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/


From: Friam  On Behalf Of Frank Wimberly
Sent: Sunday, May 24, 2020 3:06 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Corvid-nerd request

Picky, picky.

Seriously, ...

On Sun, May 24, 2020 at 3:05 PM 
mailto:thompnicks...@gmail.com>> wrote:
Yes.  Thanks, Frank.  That’s where it used to be.  But the “case growth rate” 
is only represented graphically, and is becoming increasingly a useless number 
because it is SO dependent on howmany cases the county has already had.  What I 
am really looking for is the daily case increase, or even better, the daily 
case increase per 100 k pop.

Thanks,
N

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
thompnicks...@gmail.com
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/


From: Friam mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com>> On 
Behalf Of Frank Wimberly
Sent: Sunday, May 24, 2020 3:01 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
mailto:friam@redfish.com>>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Corvid-nerd request

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html?campaign_id=9=edit_nn_20200524_id=18744=the-morning_id=60903300_id=29017=1_id=03a68c161f5d16347943cf2195691293

On Sun, May 24, 2020 at 2:40 PM 
mailto:thompnicks...@gmail.com>> wrote:
Suddenly, I cannot find anywhere a map of weekly or daily average, raw or 
per-population, county level, new case corvid data, i.e..  I am sure I am being 
dumb.  Somebody, help me to not be dumb.

Thanks,

Nick

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
thompnicks...@gmail.com
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/


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--
Frank Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz
Santa Fe, NM 87505
505 670-9918
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--
Frank Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz
Santa Fe, NM 87505
505 670-9918
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Re: [FRIAM] Corvid-nerd request

[thompnickson2]

No, no.  I am not being picky.  Or at least, I hope not.  What I want to know 
is the  relative risk of staying here in Santa Fe County NM or going to 
Hampshire County MA.  (never mind getting there, that’s a whole different 
issue).  I think that decision is best shaped by knowing how many new cases 
there are, full stop in, and/or how many new cases there are per population.  I 
may be being REALLY DUMB, but I don’t think I can find that info from the NYT 
site, any more.  

 

By the way, I am mixing up my CORvid threads with my COvid threads.  

 

Nick 

 

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

  thompnicks...@gmail.com

  
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

 

From: Friam  On Behalf Of Frank Wimberly
Sent: Sunday, May 24, 2020 3:06 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Corvid-nerd request

 

Picky, picky.

 

Seriously, ...

 

On Sun, May 24, 2020 at 3:05 PM mailto:thompnicks...@gmail.com> > wrote:

Yes.  Thanks, Frank.  That’s where it used to be.  But the “case growth rate” 
is only represented graphically, and is becoming increasingly a useless number 
because it is SO dependent on howmany cases the county has already had.  What I 
am really looking for is the daily case increase, or even better, the daily 
case increase per 100 k pop. 

 

Thanks, 

N

 

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

  thompnicks...@gmail.com

  
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

 

From: Friam mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com> > On 
Behalf Of Frank Wimberly
Sent: Sunday, May 24, 2020 3:01 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group mailto:friam@redfish.com> >
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Corvid-nerd request

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html?campaign_id=9
 

 
=edit_nn_20200524_id=18744=the-morning_id=60903300_id=29017=1_id=03a68c161f5d16347943cf2195691293
  

 

On Sun, May 24, 2020 at 2:40 PM mailto:thompnicks...@gmail.com> > wrote:

Suddenly, I cannot find anywhere a map of weekly or daily average, raw or 
per-population, county level, new case corvid data, i.e..  I am sure I am being 
dumb.  Somebody, help me to not be dumb.

 

Thanks, 

 

Nick 

 

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

thompnicks...@gmail.com  

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

 

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Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam 
 
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FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ 




 

-- 

Frank Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz
Santa Fe, NM 87505
505 670-9918

-- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. -  . -..-. . ... 
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-- 

Frank Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz
Santa Fe, NM 87505
505 670-9918

-- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. -  . -..-. . ... 
... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ...
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Re: [FRIAM] Corvid-nerd request

[Frank Wimberly]

Picky, picky.

Seriously, ...

On Sun, May 24, 2020 at 3:05 PM  wrote:

> Yes.  Thanks, Frank.  That’s where it used to be.  But the “case growth
> rate” is only represented graphically, and is becoming increasingly a
> useless number because it is SO dependent on howmany cases the county has
> already had.  What I am really looking for is the daily case increase, or
> even better, the daily case increase per 100 k pop.
>
>
>
> Thanks,
>
> N
>
>
>
> Nicholas Thompson
>
> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>
> Clark University
>
> thompnicks...@gmail.com
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam  *On Behalf Of *Frank Wimberly
> *Sent:* Sunday, May 24, 2020 3:01 PM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
> friam@redfish.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Corvid-nerd request
>
>
>
>
> https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html?campaign_id=9=edit_nn_20200524_id=18744=the-morning_id=60903300_id=29017=1_id=03a68c161f5d16347943cf2195691293
>
>
>
>
> On Sun, May 24, 2020 at 2:40 PM  wrote:
>
> Suddenly, I cannot find anywhere a map of weekly or daily average, raw or
> per-population, county level, new case corvid data, i.e..  I am sure I am
> being dumb.  Somebody, help me to not be dumb.
>
>
>
> Thanks,
>
>
>
> Nick
>
>
>
> Nicholas Thompson
>
> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>
> Clark University
>
> thompnicks...@gmail.com
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
>
>
> -- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. -  . -..-. .
> ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ...
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam
> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
>
>
>
>
> --
>
> Frank Wimberly
> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz
> Santa Fe, NM 87505
> 505 670-9918
> -- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. -  . -..-. .
> ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ...
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam
> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
>


-- 
Frank Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz
Santa Fe, NM 87505
505 670-9918
-- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. -  . -..-. . ... 
... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ...
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam
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Re: [FRIAM] Corvid-nerd request

[thompnickson2]

Yes.  Thanks, Frank.  That’s where it used to be.  But the “case growth rate” 
is only represented graphically, and is becoming increasingly a useless number 
because it is SO dependent on howmany cases the county has already had.  What I 
am really looking for is the daily case increase, or even better, the daily 
case increase per 100 k pop. 

 

Thanks, 

N

 

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

  thompnicks...@gmail.com

  
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

 

From: Friam  On Behalf Of Frank Wimberly
Sent: Sunday, May 24, 2020 3:01 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Corvid-nerd request

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html?campaign_id=9
 

 
=edit_nn_20200524_id=18744=the-morning_id=60903300_id=29017=1_id=03a68c161f5d16347943cf2195691293
  

 

On Sun, May 24, 2020 at 2:40 PM mailto:thompnicks...@gmail.com> > wrote:

Suddenly, I cannot find anywhere a map of weekly or daily average, raw or 
per-population, county level, new case corvid data, i.e..  I am sure I am being 
dumb.  Somebody, help me to not be dumb.

 

Thanks, 

 

Nick 

 

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

thompnicks...@gmail.com  

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

 

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... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ...
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FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ 




 

-- 

Frank Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz
Santa Fe, NM 87505
505 670-9918

-- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. -  . -..-. . ... 
... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ...
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Re: [FRIAM] Corvid-nerd request

[Frank Wimberly]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html?campaign_id=9=edit_nn_20200524_id=18744=the-morning_id=60903300_id=29017=1_id=03a68c161f5d16347943cf2195691293


On Sun, May 24, 2020 at 2:40 PM  wrote:

> Suddenly, I cannot find anywhere a map of weekly or daily average, raw or
> per-population, county level, new case corvid data, i.e..  I am sure I am
> being dumb.  Somebody, help me to not be dumb.
>
>
>
> Thanks,
>
>
>
> Nick
>
>
>
> Nicholas Thompson
>
> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>
> Clark University
>
> thompnicks...@gmail.com
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
>
> -- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. -  . -..-. .
> ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ...
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam
> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
>


-- 
Frank Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz
Santa Fe, NM 87505
505 670-9918
-- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. -  . -..-. . ... 
... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ...
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[FRIAM] Corvid-nerd request

[thompnickson2]

Suddenly, I cannot find anywhere a map of weekly or daily average, raw or
per-population, county level, new case corvid data, i.e..  I am sure I am
being dumb.  Somebody, help me to not be dumb.

 

Thanks, 

 

Nick 

 

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

thompnicks...@gmail.com  

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

 

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[FRIAM] ATTN: George Duncan

[thompnickson2]

All, particularly, George-

 

In an earlier larding, I argued that Peirce's idea of truth is essentially a
statistical one.   So: 

 

Is it true that the coin I hold in my hand is a fair coin?  

 

Let the coin be flipped once, and it comes out heads, what do you think?  No
way of telling, right? OK.  Flip it again.  Heads again.  Two heads in a
row.  P=0.25.  Sure, I guess so.  It could be fair.  Flip it again. Hmmm.
Three heads in a row...Five heads in a row. P= 03125.  You know?  I think
that coin is probably not fair.  "Fair" in this formulation means the
infinite distribution of H and T coinflips is .5.  "Probably not" means, the
chances that this coin's flips are drawn from a .5 distribution is less than
0.0312 and my threshold of dis belief is 0.05.  Thus, when I  say that the
coin is not fair, that inference is in part a statement about me, and the
truth of the matter, the limit of the distribution of flips, is prospective.
But the notion that there can be some truths of some matters is absolutely
essential to science.  Why else would we flip the coin?  

 

Now George:  why am I bothering you about this.  Three questions:

1.  Is this valid statistical logic?  I ask because all psychologists
are only amateur statisticians, and many of us bugger up the logic. In
particular, we are known to confuse type I and type II error. 
2.  Is this Peirce's logic?  If not, what is Peirce's logic; and
3.  Is Peirce's logic the ORIGIN of the logic of statistical inference
that I was taught 60 years ago in graduate school**.  If so, which among the
famous statisticians, Pearson, Spearman, Fischer, etc., read Peirce?  

 

[signed]

 

TLOLTT*

 

* The Little Old Lady Tasting Tea

** RIP, Rheem Jarrett

 

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

thompnicks...@gmail.com  

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

 

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Re: [FRIAM] Peirce & Postmordernism

[thompnickson2]

I agree with everything Eric says EXCEPT when he says that the first thing he 
says is unrelated to the second thing he says. 

 

n

 

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

  thompnicks...@gmail.com

  
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

 

From: Friam  On Behalf Of Eric Charles
Sent: Sunday, May 24, 2020 11:43 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Peirce & Postmordernism

 

Quantum question, taking out the implication that there is anything special 
about humans: "if the character of the most fundamental of those things — 
particle or wave, velocity, spin, location, etc. — is determined by ... 
measurement, then they cannot be Real according to Peirce's definition." 

 

The answer is: Yes, in a sense, and No, in a different sense. There was a thing 
that we believed would be real, and we found out that thing is not real. In 
finding that out, we came to think some other, higher-level thing was real, and 
so far the experiments seem to bear that other thing out. I'm not an expert in 
quantum mechanics, so I don't know the currently trendy terminology, but I 
understand the new "real" to be something like: At a small enough scale, all 
"objects" exist as probability cloud, and those clouds collapse partially or 
fully when they interact with other probability clouds. 

 

Of course, like anyone else, Peirce would find that very unintuitive, but I 
don't see any reason Peirce would rule it out as a candidate Real, assuming it 
could be . 

 

The question about what Truth means is a different issue all together, as 
Peirce thinks that is simply a matter of clear thinking. This is spelled out 
better in "How to Make Your Ideas Clear." All we can ever know about the things 
we interact with is what happens when they are interacted with. Our conceptions 
are therefore (to use my phrasing) bundles of anticipated-consequences given 
different methods of possible interaction. Some of those bundles prove stable 
despite intense scrutiny. For example, "combustible air" proved unstable as a 
concept, when put under scrutiny, but "hydrogen" has proven far more stable. 
The mistake is to think that we can conceive of the inconceivable, to always 
want to talk about that-of-which-we-cannot-speak. 

 

IF it is the case that there ARE stabilities within the domains of psychology, 
cultural anthropology, politics, etc., that are every bit as stable as those in 
chemistry, then there are truths there to be discovered, and we will be in a 
writhing mess until we get our concepts and methods straightened out much 
further. That isn't an inherently bad thing in Peirce's view, it is just the 
current state of the field. We are like chemistry before Lavoisier and his 
cohort, doing perfectly good systematic work but not yet settled upon the 
insights we need. 

 

On the other hand, it might be that there ARE NOT such stabilities within the 
domains of psychology, cultural anthropology, politics, etc. If so, then there 
is no Truth  there to be discovered. In the long run, we will presumably form a 
consensus that those fields are too poorly conceived for their to be truths in 
them. This would put us in the same situation as the astrologers, who despite 
their systematic efforts could find no stable relationship between the 
locations of the stars in the sky on a particular day and the earthly 
happenings they wished to predict; all apparent patterns were, at best, 
temporary stabilities within an ultimately random relationship. 

 

Of course, people still talk about astrology, some with intense seriousness, 
and others as a form of idle entertainment. When you enjoy a juggling show, you 
aren't on a quest for truth, and there is no reason you can't enjoy an 
astrological reading just because nothing about it is true. Maybe that is what 
all of psychology, cultural anthropology, and politics will be one day? Or 
maybe not. I don't think psychology as a whole has ever been given a fair shot 
to science its subject matter domain, certainly the current mainstream of the 
field is mostly smoke and mirrors. I think it can be done.  

 

 

---

Eric P. Charles, Ph.D.
Department of Justice - Personnel Psychologist

American University - Adjunct Instructor

 

 

On Sun, May 24, 2020 at 10:59 AM Prof David West mailto:profw...@fastmail.fm> > wrote:

Eric,

 

Thank you for the response, it is useful.

 

The quantum question, poorly stated, challenges Peirce's definition of an 
external reality "upon which our thinking has no effect." I assume that Peirce 
would put things like molecules, atoms, and elementary particles in that 
category - based upon what was known about them when he was writing. But, if 
the character of the most fundamental of those things — particle or wave, 
velocity, spin, location, etc. — is determined by human 

Re: [FRIAM] Peirce & Postmordernism

[thompnickson2]

F

And I am the one around here who is supposed to be snippy about language?  
Sheesh! 

 

No, that’s not a direct quote from Peirce.

N

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

  thompnicks...@gmail.com

  
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

 

From: Friam  On Behalf Of Frank Wimberly
Sent: Sunday, May 24, 2020 11:39 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Peirce & Postmordernism

 

That which is the case, whether or not you, me, or any other finite cognitive 
system believes it.

Did Peirce write that?Shouldn't it be "whether you, I, or any other..."

 

Nick, don't take Ecstasy.

 

Frank

 

 

 

---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz, 
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

 

On Sun, May 24, 2020, 11:21 AM mailto:thompnicks...@gmail.com> > wrote:

Hi, dave.  See Larding, below.  

 

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

  thompnicks...@gmail.com

  
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

 

From: Friam mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com> > On 
Behalf Of Prof David West
Sent: Sunday, May 24, 2020 8:58 AM
To: friam@redfish.com  
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Peirce & Postmordernism

 

Eric,

 

Thank you for the response, it is useful.

 

The quantum question, poorly stated, challenges Peirce's definition of an 
external reality "upon which our thinking has no effect." 

 

[NST===> His formulation was more like “That which is the case, whether or not 
you, me, or any other finite cognitive system believes it.“  I am not sure 
there is an important difference there.  More important to remember that 
Peirce’s is an assertion concerning the meaning of the conception “truth”, not 
an assertion that there is a truth of any matter.  It is the definition of 
truth that makes coherent our behavior with respect to the word.  

<===nst] 

I assume that Peirce would put things like molecules, atoms, and elementary 
particles in that category - based upon what was known about them when he was 
writing. 

[NST===>Yes, he would say that they are candidate “reals”.  <===nst] 

But, if the character of the most fundamental of those things — particle or 
wave, velocity, spin, location, etc. — is determined by human 
observation/measurement, then they cannot be Real according to Peirce's 
definition. This looks like an easy conclusion, but I suspect I am missing a 
nuance somewhere.

[NST===>Well, here is where I think he would get off the bus.  If I can make a 
true statement of the form, “if I do this procedure, then I will probably get 
that result, then the elements in that statement are probably real.”  Probably 
true and probably real are all you ever get in Peirce.  <===nst] 

 

My fourth question, also poorly stated, actually claims that any Truths 
discovered via use of the method are not Truths about any external reality, but 
merely Truths about application of the rules (reason, sufficient experience, 
laws of perception, etc.) of the method. A kind of tautology claim: you 
(Peirce) define what the Truth must be in the definition of the rules of method.

[NST===>Just keep remembering that the pragmatic maxim is a claim about 
MEANING, to a metaphysical claim.

Consider what effects, that might conceivably have practicIal bearings, we 
conceive the object of our conception to have. Then, our conception of these 
effects is the whole of our conception of the object..

 

<===nst] 

 

If I am wrong about the "tautology" aspect of my question (high probability), 
then my position would become: "you (Peirce) have, with your rules of method, 
so constrained the problem and solution space that your method applies only to 
a narrowly defined domain. It is not even close to a general method of problem 
solving or Truth finding; but you (Peirce) seem to be claiming such generality. 
My counter claim to Peirce: although "the method" might be useful for math, 
physics, chemistry, etc. it is useless for questions of psychology, cultural 
anthropology, politics, consciousness, etc.

[NST===>I have a long history in my writing of being allergic to other people’s 
tautologies, so you have me by the short hair, here.  The PragmatiCIst Maxim 
does place upon you the burden of stating what differences in 
knowledge-gathering practice your conception of truth makes.  If those 
differences are not practicially obsure, then you have a definition in good 
standing with Peirce, and science can go on.  The opposite of truth in Peirce 
not falsity (for falsity is a kind of truth) but doubt.  If there is nothing 
upon which we are “fated to agree”, then there is no truth.  <===nst] 

 

Ready to be set straight.

[NST===>I am not sure I am in a condition to set anybody straight about 
anything.  You seem to be 

Re: [FRIAM] Peirce & Postmordernism

[Eric Charles]

*Quantum question,* taking out the implication that there is anything
special about humans: "if the character of the most fundamental of those
things — particle or wave, velocity, spin, location, etc. — is determined
by ... measurement, then they cannot be Real according to Peirce's
definition."

The answer is: Yes, in a sense, and No, in a different sense. There was a
thing that we believed would be real, and we found out that thing is not
real. In finding that out, we came to think some other, higher-level thing
was real, and so far the experiments seem to bear that other thing out. I'm
not an expert in quantum mechanics, so I don't know the currently trendy
terminology, but I understand the new "real" to be something like: *At a
small enough scale, all "objects" exist as probability cloud, and those
clouds collapse partially or fully when they interact with other
probability clouds.*

Of course, like anyone else, Peirce would find that very unintuitive, but I
don't see any reason Peirce would rule it out as a candidate Real, assuming
it could be .

*The question about what Truth means* is a different issue all together, as
Peirce thinks that is simply a matter of clear thinking. This is spelled
out better in "How to Make Your Ideas Clear." All we can ever know about
the things we interact with is what happens when they are interacted with.
Our conceptions are therefore (to use my phrasing) bundles of
anticipated-consequences given different methods of possible interaction.
Some of those bundles prove stable despite intense scrutiny. For example,
"combustible air" proved unstable as a concept, when put under scrutiny,
but "hydrogen" has proven far more stable. The mistake is to think that we
can conceive of the inconceivable, to always want to talk about
that-of-which-we-cannot-speak.

IF it is the case that there ARE stabilities within the domains of
psychology, cultural anthropology, politics, etc., that are every bit as
stable as those in chemistry, then there are truths there to be discovered,
and we will be in a writhing mess until we get our concepts and methods
straightened out much further. That isn't an inherently bad thing in
Peirce's view, it is just the current state of the field. We are like
chemistry before Lavoisier and his cohort, doing perfectly good
systematic work but not yet settled upon the insights we need.

On the other hand, it might be that there ARE NOT such stabilities within
the domains of psychology, cultural anthropology, politics, etc. If so,
then there is no Truth  there to be discovered. In the long run, we will
presumably form a consensus that those fields are too poorly conceived for
their to be truths in them. This would put us in the same situation as the
astrologers, who despite their systematic efforts could find no stable
relationship between the locations of the stars in the sky on a particular
day and the earthly happenings they wished to predict; all apparent
patterns were, at best, temporary stabilities within an ultimately random
relationship.

Of course, people still talk about astrology, some with intense
seriousness, and others as a form of idle entertainment. When you enjoy a
juggling show, you aren't on a quest for truth, and there is no reason you
can't enjoy an astrological reading just because nothing about it is true.
Maybe that is what all of psychology, cultural anthropology, and politics
will be one day? Or maybe not. I don't think psychology as a whole has ever
been given a fair shot to science its subject matter domain, certainly the
current mainstream of the field is mostly smoke and mirrors. I think it can
be done.


---
Eric P. Charles, Ph.D.
Department of Justice - Personnel Psychologist
American University - Adjunct Instructor



On Sun, May 24, 2020 at 10:59 AM Prof David West 
wrote:

> Eric,
>
> Thank you for the response, it is useful.
>
> The quantum question, poorly stated, challenges Peirce's definition of an
> external reality "upon which our thinking has no effect." I assume that
> Peirce would put things like molecules, atoms, and elementary particles in
> that category - based upon what was known about them when he was writing.
> But, if the character of the most fundamental of those things — particle or
> wave, velocity, spin, location, etc. — is determined by human
> observation/measurement, then they cannot be Real according to Peirce's
> definition. This looks like an easy conclusion, but I suspect I am missing
> a nuance somewhere.
>
> My fourth question, also poorly stated, actually claims that any Truths
> discovered via use of the method are not Truths about any external reality,
> but merely Truths about application of the rules (reason, sufficient
> experience, laws of perception, etc.) of the method. A kind of tautology
> claim: you (Peirce) define what the Truth must be in the definition of the
> rules of method.
>
> If I am wrong about the "tautology" aspect of my question (high
> probability), then my 

Re: [FRIAM] Peirce & Postmordernism

[Frank Wimberly]

*That which is the case, whether or not you, me, or any other finite
cognitive system believes it.*

Did Peirce write that?Shouldn't it be "whether you, I, or any other..."

Nick, don't take Ecstasy.

Frank



---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Sun, May 24, 2020, 11:21 AM  wrote:

> Hi, dave.  See Larding, below.
>
>
>
> Nicholas Thompson
>
> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>
> Clark University
>
> thompnicks...@gmail.com
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam  *On Behalf Of *Prof David West
> *Sent:* Sunday, May 24, 2020 8:58 AM
> *To:* friam@redfish.com
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Peirce & Postmordernism
>
>
>
> Eric,
>
>
>
> Thank you for the response, it is useful.
>
>
>
> The quantum question, poorly stated, challenges Peirce's definition of an
> external reality "upon which our thinking has no effect."
>
>
>
> *[NST=**è** His formulation was more like “That which is the case,
> whether or not you, me, or any other finite cognitive system believes it.“
> I am not sure there is an important difference there.  More important to
> remember that Peirce’s is an assertion concerning the meaning of the
> conception “truth”, not an assertion that there is a truth of any matter.
> It is the definition of truth that makes coherent our behavior with respect
> to the word.  *
>
> *<===nst] *
>
> I assume that Peirce would put things like molecules, atoms, and
> elementary particles in that category - based upon what was known about
> them when he was writing.
>
> *[NST===>Yes, he would say that they are candidate “reals”.  <===nst] *
>
> But, if the character of the most fundamental of those things — particle
> or wave, velocity, spin, location, etc. — is determined by human
> observation/measurement, then they cannot be Real according to Peirce's
> definition. This looks like an easy conclusion, but I suspect I am missing
> a nuance somewhere.
>
> *[NST===>Well, here is where I think he would get off the bus.  If I can
> make a true statement of the form, “if I do this procedure, then I will
> probably get that result, then the elements in that statement are probably
> real.”  Probably true and probably real are all you ever get in Peirce.
> <===nst] *
>
>
>
> My fourth question, also poorly stated, actually claims that any Truths
> discovered via use of the method are not Truths about any external reality,
> but merely Truths about application of the rules (reason, sufficient
> experience, laws of perception, etc.) of the method. A kind of tautology
> claim: you (Peirce) define what the Truth must be in the definition of the
> rules of method.
>
> *[NST===>Just keep remembering that the pragmatic maxim is a claim about
> MEANING, to a metaphysical claim.*
>
> Consider what effects, that might conceivably have practicIal bearings, we
> conceive the object of our conception to have. Then, our conception of
> these effects is the whole of our conception of the object..
>
>
>
> *<===nst] *
>
>
>
> If I am wrong about the "tautology" aspect of my question (high
> probability), then my position would become: "you (Peirce) have, with your
> rules of method, so constrained the problem and solution space that your
> method applies only to a narrowly defined domain. It is not even close to a
> general method of problem solving or Truth finding; but you (Peirce) seem
> to be claiming such generality. My counter claim to Peirce: although "the
> method" might be useful for math, physics, chemistry, etc. it is useless
> for questions of psychology, cultural anthropology, politics,
> consciousness, etc.
>
> *[NST===>I have a long history in my writing of being allergic to other
> people’s tautologies, so you have me by the short hair, here.  The
> PragmatiCIst Maxim does place upon you the burden of stating what
> differences in knowledge-gathering practice your conception of truth
> makes.  If those differences are not practicially obsure, then you have a
> definition in good standing with Peirce, and science can go on.  The
> opposite of truth in Peirce not falsity (for falsity is a kind of truth)
> but doubt.  If there is nothing upon which we are “fated to agree”, then
> there is no truth.  <===nst] *
>
>
>
> Ready to be set straight.
>
> *[NST===>I am not sure I am in a condition to set anybody straight about
> anything.  You seem to be able to read, during this crisis.  I can no more
> read anything right now than I could during a bad hurricane in a rickety
> New England farm house. Congratulations.  If your MDMA will help me get
> back to reading, I am for it. <===nst] *
>
>
>
> davew
>
>
>
>
>
> On Sat, May 23, 2020, at 7:20 PM, Eric Charles wrote:
>
> Dave,
>
> These are very good questions. The Fixation of Belief is one of Peirce's
> writings that I really like. It is a non-technical piece written very early
> in his career. If we had serious Peirce scholars amongst us, they would go
> on for years about how that 

Re: [FRIAM] Peirce & Postmordernism

[thompnickson2]

Hi, dave.  See Larding, below.  

 

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

  thompnicks...@gmail.com

  
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

 

From: Friam  On Behalf Of Prof David West
Sent: Sunday, May 24, 2020 8:58 AM
To: friam@redfish.com
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Peirce & Postmordernism

 

Eric,

 

Thank you for the response, it is useful.

 

The quantum question, poorly stated, challenges Peirce's definition of an 
external reality "upon which our thinking has no effect." 

 

[NST===> His formulation was more like “That which is the case, whether or not 
you, me, or any other finite cognitive system believes it.“  I am not sure 
there is an important difference there.  More important to remember that 
Peirce’s is an assertion concerning the meaning of the conception “truth”, not 
an assertion that there is a truth of any matter.  It is the definition of 
truth that makes coherent our behavior with respect to the word.  

<===nst] 

I assume that Peirce would put things like molecules, atoms, and elementary 
particles in that category - based upon what was known about them when he was 
writing. 

[NST===>Yes, he would say that they are candidate “reals”.  <===nst] 

But, if the character of the most fundamental of those things — particle or 
wave, velocity, spin, location, etc. — is determined by human 
observation/measurement, then they cannot be Real according to Peirce's 
definition. This looks like an easy conclusion, but I suspect I am missing a 
nuance somewhere.

[NST===>Well, here is where I think he would get off the bus.  If I can make a 
true statement of the form, “if I do this procedure, then I will probably get 
that result, then the elements in that statement are probably real.”  Probably 
true and probably real are all you ever get in Peirce.  <===nst] 

 

My fourth question, also poorly stated, actually claims that any Truths 
discovered via use of the method are not Truths about any external reality, but 
merely Truths about application of the rules (reason, sufficient experience, 
laws of perception, etc.) of the method. A kind of tautology claim: you 
(Peirce) define what the Truth must be in the definition of the rules of method.

[NST===>Just keep remembering that the pragmatic maxim is a claim about 
MEANING, to a metaphysical claim.

Consider what effects, that might conceivably have practicIal bearings, we 
conceive the object of our conception to have. Then, our conception of these 
effects is the whole of our conception of the object..

 

<===nst] 

 

If I am wrong about the "tautology" aspect of my question (high probability), 
then my position would become: "you (Peirce) have, with your rules of method, 
so constrained the problem and solution space that your method applies only to 
a narrowly defined domain. It is not even close to a general method of problem 
solving or Truth finding; but you (Peirce) seem to be claiming such generality. 
My counter claim to Peirce: although "the method" might be useful for math, 
physics, chemistry, etc. it is useless for questions of psychology, cultural 
anthropology, politics, consciousness, etc.

[NST===>I have a long history in my writing of being allergic to other people’s 
tautologies, so you have me by the short hair, here.  The PragmatiCIst Maxim 
does place upon you the burden of stating what differences in 
knowledge-gathering practice your conception of truth makes.  If those 
differences are not practicially obsure, then you have a definition in good 
standing with Peirce, and science can go on.  The opposite of truth in Peirce 
not falsity (for falsity is a kind of truth) but doubt.  If there is nothing 
upon which we are “fated to agree”, then there is no truth.  <===nst] 

 

Ready to be set straight.

[NST===>I am not sure I am in a condition to set anybody straight about 
anything.  You seem to be able to read, during this crisis.  I can no more read 
anything right now than I could during a bad hurricane in a rickety New England 
farm house. Congratulations.  If your MDMA will help me get back to reading, I 
am for it. <===nst] 

 

davew

 

 

On Sat, May 23, 2020, at 7:20 PM, Eric Charles wrote:

Dave, 

These are very good questions. The Fixation of Belief is one of Peirce's 
writings that I really like. It is a non-technical piece written very early in 
his career. If we had serious Peirce scholars amongst us, they would go on for 
years about how that paper relates to Peirce's later and more precise works. It 
is a deep rabbit hole. Luckily, we don't have that problem. 

 

1. Is Peirce a dualist? - I think he is trying hard not to be, but he still has 
some lingering bits that make me wonder if he's fully cut the cord. I suspect 
that at this stage of his career he would say that beliefs and thoughts are 
real. Later, in his career, he comes to believe that only "generals" are 

Re: [FRIAM] proven COVID treatment

[Marcus Daniels]

If these friends wanted to do a useful experiment, they would have a control 
group.  It sounds like they all got lit.

If these 32 friends are mostly less than 60 years old, no deaths would be 
expected.
Or they could be some cohort that for whatever yet-to-be-quantified genetic, 
epigenetic, metabolic condition reason, or that they lack co-morbidities.

I do realize you are trolling, like Nick's alter ego, but IIRC you were someone 
posting about hydroxychloroquine.   There are many plausible drugs that could 
impact COVID-19, and some already taken by vulnerable populations.   
Hypertension drugs, like ACE inhibitors were at first thought be potentially 
dangerous, but then contrary evidence became available.   One might as well as 
suggest that COVID-19 symptoms be treated with coffee!   After all, it is a 
mild bronchodilator as well as a diuretic. 

The only way to have any confidence that treatments are safe and effective is 
systematic testing.

Marcus

On 5/24/20, 5:46 AM, "Friam on behalf of Prof David West" 
 wrote:

Some friends I made in Amsterdam live in a commune — 30-32 of them. They 
had to go into quarantine six weeks ago with two members of the group testing 
positive for COVID. So they were pretty confident that they would all get the 
disease while in quarantine.

Reading that the virus does best in cool moist environments they decided to 
take daily doses of MDMA — which raises body temperature and dehydrates.

When the left quarantine last week, all of them tested positive for the 
antibodies but none of them had suffered symptoms beyond mild sniffles. 

Proof positive that MDMA prevents COVID from getting past your nasal / 
mouth tissue where is causes minimal harm.

Right?

davew

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Re: [FRIAM] proven COVID treatment

[thompnickson2]

David, 

 

This is how I  know you are trolling me:

 

Proof positive that MDMA prevents COVID from getting past your nasal / mouth 
tissue where it causes minimal harm.

 

Quite apart from whether MDMA prevents COVID pneumonia, this is a wonderful 
example of intelligent people taking science into their own hands, a phenomenon 
that we discussed briefly during zFRIAM on zFRIDAY.  All of us do that!  Why?  
Or more interestingly: When?  

 

Nick

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

thompnicks...@gmail.com

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

 

-Original Message-
From: Friam  On Behalf Of Prof David West
Sent: Sunday, May 24, 2020 6:45 AM
To: friam@redfish.com
Subject: [FRIAM] proven COVID treatment

 

Some friends I made in Amsterdam live in a commune — 30-32 of them. They had to 
go into quarantine six weeks ago with two members of the group testing positive 
for COVID. So they were pretty confident that they would all get the disease 
while in quarantine.

 

Reading that the virus does best in cool moist environments they decided to 
take daily doses of MDMA — which raises body temperature and dehydrates.

 

When the left quarantine last week, all of them tested positive for the 
antibodies but none of them had suffered symptoms beyond mild sniffles. 

 

Proof positive that MDMA prevents COVID from getting past your nasal / mouth 
tissue where is causes minimal harm.

 

Right?

 

davew

 

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http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ 

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Re: [FRIAM] proven COVID treatment

[Tom Johnson]

So what is MDMA?

3,4-Methyl​enedioxy​methamphetamine, commonly known as ecstasy or molly, is
a psychoactive drug primarily used for recreational purposes. The desired
effects include altered sensations, increased energy, empathy, as well as
pleasure. When taken by mouth, effects begin in 30 to 45 minutes and last 3
to 6 hours. Wikipedia 

And how do we think it works in the body's multiple systems?
Tom

On Sun, May 24, 2020, 6:45 AM Prof David West  wrote:

> Some friends I made in Amsterdam live in a commune — 30-32 of them. They
> had to go into quarantine six weeks ago with two members of the group
> testing positive for COVID. So they were pretty confident that they would
> all get the disease while in quarantine.
>
> Reading that the virus does best in cool moist environments they decided
> to take daily doses of MDMA — which raises body temperature and dehydrates.
>
> When the left quarantine last week, all of them tested positive for the
> antibodies but none of them had suffered symptoms beyond mild sniffles.
>
> Proof positive that MDMA prevents COVID from getting past your nasal /
> mouth tissue where is causes minimal harm.
>
> Right?
>
> davew
>
> -- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. -  . -..-. .
> ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ...
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam
> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
> FRIAM-COMIC 
> http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
>
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Re: [FRIAM] Peirce & Postmordernism

[Prof David West]

Eric,

Thank you for the response, it is useful.

The quantum question, poorly stated, challenges Peirce's definition of an 
external reality "upon which our thinking has no effect." I assume that Peirce 
would put things like molecules, atoms, and elementary particles in that 
category - based upon what was known about them when he was writing. But, if 
the character of the most fundamental of those things — particle or wave, 
velocity, spin, location, etc. — is determined by human 
observation/measurement, then they cannot be Real according to Peirce's 
definition. This looks like an easy conclusion, but I suspect I am missing a 
nuance somewhere.

My fourth question, also poorly stated, actually claims that any Truths 
discovered via use of the method are not Truths about any external reality, but 
merely Truths about application of the rules (reason, sufficient experience, 
laws of perception, etc.) of the method. A kind of tautology claim: you 
(Peirce) define what the Truth must be in the definition of the rules of method.

If I am wrong about the "tautology" aspect of my question (high probability), 
then my position would become: "you (Peirce) have, with your rules of method, 
so constrained the problem and solution space that your method applies only to 
a narrowly defined domain. It is not even close to a general method of problem 
solving or Truth finding; but you (Peirce) seem to be claiming such generality. 
My counter claim to Peirce: although "the method" might be useful for math, 
physics, chemistry, etc. it is useless for questions of psychology, cultural 
anthropology, politics, consciousness, etc.

Ready to be set straight.

davew


On Sat, May 23, 2020, at 7:20 PM, Eric Charles wrote:
> Dave, 
> These are very good questions. The Fixation of Belief is one of Peirce's 
> writings that I really like. It is a non-technical piece written very early 
> in his career. If we had serious Peirce scholars amongst us, they would go on 
> for years about how that paper relates to Peirce's later and more precise 
> works. It is a deep rabbit hole. Luckily, we don't have that problem. 
> 
> 1. Is Peirce a dualist? - I think he is trying hard not to be, but he still 
> has some lingering bits that make me wonder if he's fully cut the cord. I 
> suspect that at this stage of his career he would say that beliefs and 
> thoughts are real. Later, in his career, he comes to believe that only 
> "generals" are "real", and that's a whole different can of worms. His work on 
> what we might broadly call "psychology" is probably the weakest part of his 
> work.
> 
> 2. What about quantum physics and the "observer" problem? I'm not sure this 
> intersects with Peirce's work. I suspect Peirce wouldn't like quantum 
> indeterminacy, but he might be fine with it so long as we held the emphasis 
> on how that doesn't really affect interaction with macro objects. 
> 
> 3. Why does Peirce privileged Reason? (weak post-modernism) In the Fixation 
> of Belief, Peirce is pretty honest that the only thing the scientific method 
> has going for it is that it leads to stable beliefs. If you don't care 
> whether or not your beliefs pan out when tested, there are some good reasons 
> to prefer other methods of fixating beliefs. One of my favorite things about 
> that paper is Peirce's honestly that the other methods for fixating beliefs 
> have things in their favor. 
> 
> 4. Why constrain the 'solution space'? (strong post-modernism) Well, Peirce 
> actually thinks there will not be a solution to almost all questions we might 
> think to ask. The question isn't really how to constrain the solution space 
> though, the question is what gets to count as a solution. You can't solve 
> problems that don't exist, so if we are asking questions about things that 
> are not real, we will never find an answer. There might be perfectly good 
> reasons to pretend there are answers to poorly formed questions - to 
> facilitate social cohesion in various ways, to avoid getting killed by 
> fanatics, etc., etc. - but that's a totally different problem. The assertion 
> that some belief is "true" is an assertion about what *_would_ *happen *_if_ 
> *we systematically started examining the consequences of that belief. If you 
> want to talk about some other properties a belief might have, that's fine, 
> just don't pretend you are talking about whether or not it is true. And we 
> may "examine the consequences" of a belief using the full scope of 
> examination methods. There are no preconceived restrictions. "Our senses" is 
> meant in the most generous sense, not a narrow one, and merely acknowledges 
> that we cannot examine anything except via the methods by which humans are 
> capable of examining things. 
> 
> Does that help?
> 
> 
> 
> ---
> Eric P. Charles, Ph.D.
> Department of Justice - Personnel Psychologist
> American University - Adjunct Instructor
> 
 
> 
> 
> On Sat, May 23, 2020 at 

Re: [FRIAM] God

[Gary Schiltz]

Not a religion per se, but reincarnation seems anything but static.

On Sun, May 24, 2020 at 7:39 AM Prof David West 
wrote:

> The book i promoted at vFRIAM - Excellent Beauty by Eric Dietrich does a
> good job of dealing with the question "why religion" AND "why science?"
> Pretty much the same question.
>
> Anyone aware of a religion that claims an afterlife that is other than
> "eternal damnation" or "eternal bliss." Some kind of existence that is not
> basically static. I have been looking and yet to find one. Different
> nuances of course, but all basically claiming a static state. BTW this
> includes the static state of "nothingness."
>
> Mormonism is an exception, but I and trying to find if it is the only one.
>
> davew
>
>
> On Sat, May 23, 2020, at 9:59 PM, thompnicks...@gmail.com wrote:
>
> Hi Russ,
>
>
>
> Hawking my wares again.  I am sorry but SOMEBODY has to read this crap.
> The argument of this paper
> 
> is that the flow of inference is actually in the other direction.  We model
> our view of ourselves on our experience with others.
>
>
>
> Nick
>
>
>
> Nicholas Thompson
>
> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>
> Clark University
>
> thompnicks...@gmail.com
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
>
>
>
> -Original Message-
> From: Friam  On Behalf Of Russell Standish
> Sent: Saturday, May 23, 2020 9:39 PM
> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] God
>
>
>
> The theory which makes some sense to me is that we humans (as social
>
> creatures) have evolved to anthropomorphise. This make sense for dealing
> with other humans, who might be competitors, or compatriots. And the
> modelling makes use of a remarkable trick - observe one's own mind, and use
> those observations to model somebody else's mind. This explains why we have
> self-awareness, if not consciousness.
>
>
>
> The thing is, the same trick also works quite well with other animals, who
> may be predators or prey, irrespective of whether other species actually
> have minds or not.
>
>
>
> So it makes sense that when some relatively rare phenomenon occurs,
> perhaps a thunderstorm, that the alpha male stands up and makes threatening
> noises. And it seems to work when the thunder goes away
>
>
>
>
>
> eventually. And so the thunderstorm has been anthropomorphised. This got
> extended to other phenomenon, eg famines get blamed on angry gods who can
> be appeased by making the appropriate offerings. Eventually con-artists
> exploited this with ever more elaborate stories that leveraged this innate
> tendency to anthromorphise. I'm sure astrology started out as a cunning
> plan to garner research funds for early astonomers from ignorant kings.
>
>
>
> Like most evolutionary stories, this is a "just so" story. But I think it
> has a grain of truth.
>
>
>
> Cheers, Russell
>
>
>
> --
>
>
>
>
> 
>
> Dr Russell StandishPhone 0425 253119 (mobile)
>
> Principal, High Performance Coders hpco...@hpcoders.com.au
>
>   http://www.hpcoders.com.au
>
>
> 
>
>
>
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[FRIAM] proven COVID treatment

[Prof David West]

Some friends I made in Amsterdam live in a commune — 30-32 of them. They had to 
go into quarantine six weeks ago with two members of the group testing positive 
for COVID. So they were pretty confident that they would all get the disease 
while in quarantine.

Reading that the virus does best in cool moist environments they decided to 
take daily doses of MDMA — which raises body temperature and dehydrates.

When the left quarantine last week, all of them tested positive for the 
antibodies but none of them had suffered symptoms beyond mild sniffles. 

Proof positive that MDMA prevents COVID from getting past your nasal / mouth 
tissue where is causes minimal harm.

Right?

davew

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Re: [FRIAM] God

[Prof David West]

The book i promoted at vFRIAM - Excellent Beauty by Eric Dietrich does a good 
job of dealing with the question "why religion" AND "why science?" Pretty much 
the same question.

Anyone aware of a religion that claims an afterlife that is other than "eternal 
damnation" or "eternal bliss." Some kind of existence that is not basically 
static. I have been looking and yet to find one. Different nuances of course, 
but all basically claiming a static state. BTW this includes the static state 
of "nothingness."

Mormonism is an exception, but I and trying to find if it is the only one.

davew


On Sat, May 23, 2020, at 9:59 PM, thompnicks...@gmail.com wrote:
> Hi Russ,

> 

> Hawking my wares again. I am sorry but SOMEBODY has to read this crap. The 
> argument of this paper 
> 
>  is that the flow of inference is actually in the other direction. We model 
> our view of ourselves on our experience with others. 

> 

> Nick 

> 

> Nicholas Thompson

> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

> Clark University

> thompnicks...@gmail.com

> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

> 

> 

> 


> -Original Message-
> From: Friam  On Behalf Of Russell Standish
> Sent: Saturday, May 23, 2020 9:39 PM
> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] God

> 

> The theory which makes some sense to me is that we humans (as social

> creatures) have evolved to anthropomorphise. This make sense for dealing with 
> other humans, who might be competitors, or compatriots. And the modelling 
> makes use of a remarkable trick - observe one's own mind, and use those 
> observations to model somebody else's mind. This explains why we have 
> self-awareness, if not consciousness.

> 

> The thing is, the same trick also works quite well with other animals, who 
> may be predators or prey, irrespective of whether other species actually have 
> minds or not.

> 

> So it makes sense that when some relatively rare phenomenon occurs, perhaps a 
> thunderstorm, that the alpha male stands up and makes threatening noises. And 
> it seems to work when the thunder goes away

> 

> 

> eventually. And so the thunderstorm has been anthropomorphised. This got 
> extended to other phenomenon, eg famines get blamed on angry gods who can be 
> appeased by making the appropriate offerings. Eventually con-artists 
> exploited this with ever more elaborate stories that leveraged this innate 
> tendency to anthromorphise. I'm sure astrology started out as a cunning plan 
> to garner research funds for early astonomers from ignorant kings.

> 

> Like most evolutionary stories, this is a "just so" story. But I think it has 
> a grain of truth.

> 

> Cheers, Russell

> 

> --

> 

> 

> Dr Russell Standish Phone 0425 253119 (mobile)

> Principal, High Performance Coders hpco...@hpcoders.com.au

> http://www.hpcoders.com.au

> 

> 

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