Re: [silk] Where is the US economy heading?

[Eugen Leitl]

On Thu, May 03, 2007 at 09:13:29PM +0530, shiv sastry wrote:

> When I work out the economics of getting a Green card and weigh cost against 
> risk in the short, medium and long term, India appears to be a better bet for 
> me and my family. I can do more for them from here.  However, I will mull 
> over what you have said and see if the knowledge makes any difference. My 
> decision would probably be different five years from now, but with my kids in 
> a fairly crucial phase of their lives the instability of moving may not be 
> beneficial to them and will be completely disastrous for me (and therefore 
> potentially disastrous for my kids)

A very good point. You can always send them to graduate school.
(In fact, a classical advice for those wanting to save on tuition
and living expenses is to do undergraduate studies in your home
town, while still living with your parents, and only move to
a prestigious/expensive/remote school for the graduate part).
 
> Everyone I know who wanted to go to the US, went on his own merit and I think 
> my kids should be able to do that too. If not, my current thinking is that 
> they will gain nothing from depending on me to get them there by virtue of a 
> family Green Card. I probably won't do that and I will (probably) be the 
> second generation from my family to have passed up the opportunity to live in 
>  
> the US. My father did that in 1945.

I've passed up the opportunity as well. And did the right thing in the 
retrospect.

-- 
Eugen* Leitl http://leitl.org";>leitl http://leitl.org
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8B29F6BE: 099D 78BA 2FD3 B014 B08A  7779 75B0 2443 8B29 F6BE

Re: [silk] Where is the US economy heading?

[Shyam Visweswaran]

--- shiv sastry <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:

> On Thursday 03 May 2007 5:51 pm, Shyam
> Visweswaran wrote:
> > The devil is in the details.
> 
> Indeed. The devil IS in the details. Thanks for
> the inputs anyway.
> 
> When I work out the economics of getting a
> Green card and weigh cost against 
> risk in the short, medium and long term, India
> appears to be a better bet for 
> me and my family. I can do more for them from
> here.  However, I will mull 
> over what you have said and see if the
> knowledge makes any difference. My 
> decision would probably be different five years
> from now, but with my kids in 
> a fairly crucial phase of their lives the
> instability of moving may not be 
> beneficial to them and will be completely
> disastrous for me (and therefore 
> potentially disastrous for my kids)
> 
> Everyone I know who wanted to go to the US,
> went on his own merit and I think 
> my kids should be able to do that too. If not,
> my current thinking is that 
> they will gain nothing from depending on me to
> get them there by virtue of a 
> family Green Card. I probably won't do that and
> I will (probably) be the 
> second generation from my family to have passed
> up the opportunity to live in  
> the US. My father did that in 1945.
> 
> shiv
> 

I agree with you that getting a green card is not
needed even if your kids want to go to a US univ
later on. In fact, getting into a graduate
program in the US hardly depends on whether your
kid has a green card or not. Except in medicine
where things are turned on the head; but then
graduate education in medicine aka residency is
really not education but an apprenticeship for
setting up shop in the US.

Doing undergrad in India followed by grad in US,
if educationally inclined, is the way to go. And
if your kid chooses to go that way the absence of
a green card is not a handicap.

shyam


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Re: [silk] Where is the US economy heading?

[shiv sastry]

On Thursday 03 May 2007 5:51 pm, Shyam Visweswaran wrote:
> The devil is in the details.

Indeed. The devil IS in the details. Thanks for the inputs anyway.

When I work out the economics of getting a Green card and weigh cost against 
risk in the short, medium and long term, India appears to be a better bet for 
me and my family. I can do more for them from here.  However, I will mull 
over what you have said and see if the knowledge makes any difference. My 
decision would probably be different five years from now, but with my kids in 
a fairly crucial phase of their lives the instability of moving may not be 
beneficial to them and will be completely disastrous for me (and therefore 
potentially disastrous for my kids)

Everyone I know who wanted to go to the US, went on his own merit and I think 
my kids should be able to do that too. If not, my current thinking is that 
they will gain nothing from depending on me to get them there by virtue of a 
family Green Card. I probably won't do that and I will (probably) be the 
second generation from my family to have passed up the opportunity to live in  
the US. My father did that in 1945.

shiv

Re: [silk] Where is the US economy heading?

[Shyam Visweswaran]

--- shiv sastry <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:

 
> Neither my wife nor I have any need or
> intention to emigrate to the US. 
> However I was weighing the "educational
> opportunity" options for my kids in 
> the US. This article has firmed up my mind. 
> 
> thanks
> 
> shiv
> 
The devil is in the details. Undergraduate
education in the US is expensive but graduate
education in the US is not. Most graduate
students are able to obtain stipends that cover
living expenses and fees. Both undergraduate and
graduate education in the US is excellent across
the board in most universities. In India, except
for a small tier of institutions at the top, the
quality of undergraduate and graduate education
is highly variable and typically of poor quality.
A green card provides only incremental benefit to
someone who is coming for education to the US; it
is of greater benefit if the person is going to
stay on in the US to work. 

I would any day do graduate training in the US
rather than in India.

shyam

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Re: [silk] Where is the US economy heading?

[Dave Long]

The key observation is that the rural land hasn't appreciated because
of wealth created by the rural people...


To first order, isn't this true everywhere?

Urban areas may be good at producing capital because they have to be; when  
one must trade for resources, one must develop export goods and services.   
On the other hand, when one just happens to have title to a bunch of  
extractable resources, it seems common to find people who are much better  
at spending capital than accumulating it.


-Dave

Re: [silk] Where is the US economy heading?

[Srini Ramakrishnan]

On 5/1/07, Pavithra Sankaran <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
[...]


This is completely untrue. In and around Bandipur
where I work, which is 80 kms from anywhere, land
situated 2 kms from the highway, accessible only
through a dirt track, sells for 5-600,000 Rs. an acre.
Merely two years ago, it was 75,000 if there was water
below.


Granted there are exceptions. Bandipur is a nice weekend jungle
getaway that's within driving distance of Bangalore and Mysore where
the urban affluence exists.

The key observation is that the rural land hasn't appreciated because
of wealth created by the rural people, for example, farmers aren't
competing to buy up their neighbors plots because they are seeing a
sugarcane bubble.

I'd like to show you plenty of land in North Karanataka that has not
seen rain in many many months and has absolutely no tourism nor
industrial value and remains barren and unappreciated.

Bandipur is merely a minor side effect of urban affluence.

Cheeni

Re: [silk] Where is the US economy heading?

[Pavithra Sankaran]

--- Srini Ramakrishnan <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:

> On 4/28/07, Venkat Mangudi <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> wrote:

> but what we have in India is a spiraling
> inflation of urban land
> prices while rural land continues to lie untouched
> by the Indian
> economic miracle unless it has some potential of
> touching the margins
> of our ever expanding urban zones.

This is completely untrue. In and around Bandipur
where I work, which is 80 kms from anywhere, land
situated 2 kms from the highway, accessible only
through a dirt track, sells for 5-600,000 Rs. an acre.
Merely two years ago, it was 75,000 if there was water
below.

What such a dramatic escalation, driven almost
entirely by urban buyers, has done to the local
dryland agricultural economy is utterly tragic.
Farmers sell to plug decades-long, high-interest
loans, and then find themselves without a patch even
to grow food for subsistence. Migration and the rest
of that downward spiral inevitably follows. If the
sale didn't cover both the loan and the daughter's
wedding, suicide is the preferred solution.

I also know that this isn't true of Karnataka
alone...it is the case all over Tamil Nadu, Andhra
Pradesh and anywhere south of the Vindhyas.

Pavithra

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Re: [silk] Where is the US economy heading?

[Udhay Shankar N]

Thaths wrote [at 01:17 PM 4/30/2007] :


Can someone point me to a couple of examples of instances where the
real estate market went belly up? I am more interested in examples
where investments lost value over a large period of time rather than
short-term losses.


This is a long, data-laden (and scary) argument that the US real 
estate market is going to fall off a cliff:


http://www.safehaven.com/article-6329.htm

For Cheeni: reading through this might just convince you that the 
kinds of housing loans that have been made in the US are much, *much* 
more risk-laden than the ones that have been made in India.


Udhay
--
((Udhay Shankar N)) ((udhay @ pobox.com)) ((www.digeratus.com))

Re: [silk] Where is the US economy heading?

[Thaths]

On 5/1/07, Shyam Visweswaran <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:

I am currently looking for a home and have been doing some
reading. With respect to the US, till around 2001, the value
of a home bought a century ago remained even when adjusted
for inflation. I have a reference somewhere for it. Since 2001
there has been a real estate bubble which has started
correcting about a year ago. It is expected to take 6-8 years
to correct completely. Whether the correction will lead to
the much ballyhooed US economy meltdown remains to be seen.


I am in the market for buying a house as well. I need a roof over my
head, and I could either acquire this roof through renting or buying.
There is no value preservation or appreciation with renting. While
buying gives me some nice tax breaks (and induces some fiscal
discipline). Even if the market turns south in a few years and I have
to sell my house at a reduced value, I will still be getting back some
of the money I invested rather than none.

Thaths
--
Homer: He has all the money in the world, but there's one thing he can't buy.
Marge: What's that?
Homer: (pause) A dinosaur.
   -- Homer J. Simpson
Sudhakar ChandraSlacker Without Borders

Re: [silk] Where is the US economy heading?

[Shyam Visweswaran]

>> Can someone point me to a couple of examples of instances where the
>> real estate market went belly up? I am more interested in examples
>> where investments lost value over a large period of time rather than
>> short-term losses. I ask because I keep hearing dire warnings of real
>> estate meltdown, but have personally only seen short-term losses.
>> Long-term, real estate investment (like investment in the stock
>> market) seems to increase in value.

> The question is not whether real estate increases in nominal value, but  
> whether it increases in real value.

I am currently looking for a home and have been doing some reading. With 
respect to the US, till around 2001, the value of a home bought a century ago 
remained even when adjusted for inflation. I have a reference somewhere for it. 
Since 2001 there has been a real estate bubble which has started correcting 
about a year ago. It is expected to take 6-8 years to correct completely. 
Whether the correction will lead to the much ballyhooed US economy meltdown 
remains to be seen. 

Shyam

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Re: [silk] Where is the US economy heading?

[Dave Long]

Can someone point me to a couple of examples of instances where the
real estate market went belly up? I am more interested in examples
where investments lost value over a large period of time rather than
short-term losses. I ask because I keep hearing dire warnings of real
estate meltdown, but have personally only seen short-term losses.
Long-term, real estate investment (like investment in the stock
market) seems to increase in value.


The question is not whether real estate increases in nominal value, but  
whether it increases in real value.


Shiller attempted to take the inflation out of the time series, and  
eyeballing his graph:


http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/9/9e/Barrons_shiller_06-20-2005.gif/320px-Barrons_shiller_06-20-2005.gif

suggests that if one had bought a basket of US real estate around 1900, it  
would have taken until 1950, maybe even 1990, to break even in real terms.


(one might argue that the reason for the "equity premium" over this same  
time period was also due to inflation -- everyone would have done better  
given a more peaceful century, but stockholders at least retained some  
value while bondholders wound up with wallpaper)


-Dave

Re: [silk] Where is the US economy heading?

[Deepa Mohan]

Dear Shiv, Having just seen one of those "Maternity Hotels", your
email struck a chord...


PS - I have a garden with a lake for sale - about 240 acres in all. It's
called Lalbagh. Anyone interested? I'm selling it cheap because I'm
emigrating to the US


I want. If you could just throw in your home and garden, too...

Deepa.

On 5/1/07, shiv sastry <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:

On Tuesday 01 May 2007 12:06 am, Srini Ramakrishnan wrote:
> The US maybe headed for a fall, but a similar fall in India will have
> rather more pronounced and dire consequences.

This may be a simplistic assessment.

If you drive up towards Yelahanka past Mekhri circle you will see, on your
left a grey ghost of a building that was supposed to have become the much
vaunted "Cauvery Medical Center" financed by "US based NRI's".

That project died after there was a property value crash in the US about a
decade or so ago that wiped several million dollars from the assets of the
prime investors. However, it did nothing to other people and there are dozens
of new corporate hospitals popping up around the ruins of Cauvery medical
center.

These new corporate hospitals are being built to cater to a very small and
very wealthy group of Indians - and in keeping with the fact that these
wealthy Indians are young and are beginning to have families, newer hospitals
are coming equipped with "birthing suites" so that the wealthy young Indian
can cough up a cool 1.5 lakhs (150,000 Rupees for the uninitiated) for luxury
for 5 days while your wife delivers and brings home a baby. This is in
addition to the 25,000 a month he pays for his Toyota Camry.

These hospitals and facilities are aimed at less than one percent of the
population and that one percent is greatly dependent on the US economy.

For the rest, its business as usual whether the property market in the US goes
up or down. The one lesson from all this is "Make hay while the sun shines",
and with any luck the sun won't stop shining, and new suckers will continue
to be born inside or outside those birthing suites.

PS - I have a garden with a lake for sale - about 240 acres in all. It's
called Lalbagh. Anyone interested? I'm selling it cheap because I'm
emigrating to the US

shiv

Re: [silk] Where is the US economy heading?

[shiv sastry]

On Tuesday 01 May 2007 12:06 am, Srini Ramakrishnan wrote:
> The US maybe headed for a fall, but a similar fall in India will have
> rather more pronounced and dire consequences.

This may be a simplistic assessment.

If you drive up towards Yelahanka past Mekhri circle you will see, on your 
left a grey ghost of a building that was supposed to have become the much 
vaunted "Cauvery Medical Center" financed by "US based NRI's".

That project died after there was a property value crash in the US about a 
decade or so ago that wiped several million dollars from the assets of the 
prime investors. However, it did nothing to other people and there are dozens 
of new corporate hospitals popping up around the ruins of Cauvery medical 
center.

These new corporate hospitals are being built to cater to a very small and 
very wealthy group of Indians - and in keeping with the fact that these 
wealthy Indians are young and are beginning to have families, newer hospitals 
are coming equipped with "birthing suites" so that the wealthy young Indian 
can cough up a cool 1.5 lakhs (150,000 Rupees for the uninitiated) for luxury 
for 5 days while your wife delivers and brings home a baby. This is in 
addition to the 25,000 a month he pays for his Toyota Camry.

These hospitals and facilities are aimed at less than one percent of the 
population and that one percent is greatly dependent on the US economy.

For the rest, its business as usual whether the property market in the US goes 
up or down. The one lesson from all this is "Make hay while the sun shines", 
and with any luck the sun won't stop shining, and new suckers will continue 
to be born inside or outside those birthing suites.

PS - I have a garden with a lake for sale - about 240 acres in all. It's 
called Lalbagh. Anyone interested? I'm selling it cheap because I'm 
emigrating to the US

shiv

Re: [silk] Where is the US economy heading?

[Kiran Jonnalagadda]

I suspect you credit authorities with more responsibility than they  
actually bear. May I recommend Robert Neuwirth's Shadow Cities?


Here's a review:
http://www.worldchanging.com/archives/002029.html

Here's the author's blog:
http://squattercity.blogspot.com/

Here's him giving a talk at TED (well worth watching):
http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/view/id/36

And here's the book itself:
Hardcover: http://www.amazon.com/Shadow-Cities-Billion-Squatters- 
Urban/dp/0415933196
Paperback: http://www.amazon.com/Shadow-Cities-Billion-Squatters- 
Urban/dp/0415953618


J.


On 01-May-07, at 12:06 AM, Srini Ramakrishnan wrote:


By any measure the value that Indian cities seem to offer in lifestyle
benefits, living space, property ownership and civilization seems
rather scarce. On an idle Saturday afternoon I must have done some
thinking for the idea that I pay more than half of my income in taxes
has come to be rather firmly implanted in my mind. It's not hard to
get at such a figure when you compute my basket of direct and indirect
taxes - namely, income tax at 33.33%, sales tax on anything I consume
at 12.5%, miscellaneous upstream taxes such as excise and customs, and
property and road taxes.

Re: [silk] Where is the US economy heading?

[shiv sastry]

On Tuesday 01 May 2007 12:06 am, Srini Ramakrishnan wrote:
> but one statistic I
> heard yesterday of 9 out of 10 car buyers taking out a loan to finance
> their purchase strikes me as about right.

Loans for cars make eminent sense for many reasons. A whole lot of people who 
run businesses (such as I do) get tax benefits from taking a car loan. My 
gross annual income is reduced by the amount of depreciation of the car, and 
my tax liability is reduced by the amount on interest I have paid on the 
loan.

Besides, if I pay a lump sum on purchase of the car, I have to show exactly 
where and how  I had that lump sum stashed up (which is a problem for some 
people, though not me :) ). In additiion, even if I had a lump sum to throw 
on a car, I would be better off investing it appropriately to recoup some of 
the loan interest losses, while I recouped more of the losses via tax 
advantages that I have mentioned above.

However what I find amazing is the candour with which automobile financiers 
advertise cars with "low" estimated monthly instalments of Rs 20,000. For 
20,000 Rupees a month you can get a driver, two domestic helps, an ayah for 
your kid and a watchman/gardener and still have money left over for monthly 
instalments on a less expensive non imported car from a fully depreciated 
Indian company.

shiv

Re: [silk] Where is the US economy heading?

[Suresh Ramasubramanian]

Thaths [30/04/07 13:17 -0700]:

Can someone point me to a couple of examples of instances where the
real estate market went belly up? I am more interested in examples
where investments lost value over a large period of time rather than
short-term losses. I ask because I keep hearing dire warnings of real
estate meltdown, but have personally only seen short-term losses.


Real estate has a stable, gradually rising value. But there's periods of
very high inflation followed by steep corrective drops once the bubble
bursts. So if you buy during a period of inflation and then sell in a panic
after the bubble bursts, more fool you.  The bubble's getting fat, round
and eminently burstable now, where my apartment, that I bought for Rs.2
million back in 2002 is worth something like 2.5..3x that thanks to soaring
land prices (oh, and bank lending rates that have risen a full percentage
point, at least, in the last 4 years).

Still, its a very nice apartment in a nice neighborhood so I think I'm just
going to hang onto it and live in it rather than sell it. If the house is
not placed on the market it stays insulated from notional rises and falls
in it ..

srs

Re: [silk] Where is the US economy heading?

[Thaths]

On 4/30/07, Srini Ramakrishnan <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:

Were I to be rash enough to splurge on a house of my own at the
present moment, it would cost me a rather large fortune, financed no
doubt by usurious debt. Debt which I would possibly find hard to repay
if the Indian economy were to hit murky waters. Debt that would be in
vain were I to lose my land to some fancy record keeping at the land
records office, no doubt inspired by the invisible and sometimes all
too thoroughly visible hands of the land mafia. Debt that would make
me look like a fool when the property price like water finds its true
level.


Can someone point me to a couple of examples of instances where the
real estate market went belly up? I am more interested in examples
where investments lost value over a large period of time rather than
short-term losses. I ask because I keep hearing dire warnings of real
estate meltdown, but have personally only seen short-term losses.
Long-term, real estate investment (like investment in the stock
market) seems to increase in value.

S.
--
Homer: He has all the money in the world, but there's one thing he can't buy.
Marge: What's that?
Homer: (pause) A dinosaur.
   -- Homer J. Simpson
Sudhakar ChandraSlacker Without Borders

Re: [silk] Where is the US economy heading?

[Srini Ramakrishnan]

On 4/28/07, Venkat Mangudi <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:

http://bullnotbull.com/archive/dow13k-1.html


This is a description that would fit the current state of the Indian
economy rather well. In an inflation ridden India of first time
frivolous consumers and debtors, it seems difficult to afford a decent
urban home and a primary school education on an honest income.

The US maybe headed for a fall, but a similar fall in India will have
rather more pronounced and dire consequences. The banking and
financial system in India is weak, without being backed in any serious
measure by economic or military might. A fall in property prices, the
US economy or foreign investment is sure to bring doom both to the
foolish debtors and the wise who stayed away from debt.

I don't have much confidence in our TV reporters, but one statistic I
heard yesterday of 9 out of 10 car buyers taking out a loan to finance
their purchase strikes me as about right.

I am currently shopping for a car, I have been so for the past several
months. It has never been an urgent necessity for us, since my wife
and I are rather content to make our way around on public transport
after we sold our last car. Nevertheless, having made up my mind to
put an end to procrastination, I visited the local Tata showroom for a
looksie, intent on getting a cheap set of wheels.

I was amazed at the number of new cars being bought on a rather
ordinary and not particularly auspicious and "god-friendly" Sunday.
The sales personnel took a good 20 minutes to notice that I had
entered the premises, which left me rather happy since I could wander
around and inspect the vehicles without a nosy, ignorant salesman
hindering my progress.

The salesman who finally accosted me was more interested in selling me
a car loan, than in selling me the car. This to my mind strikes the
most discordant note of all, the financial industry is so heavily
leveraged on foolish property and consumable debts that it risks the
economic stability of India.

The salesman was rather crest fallen when I announced that I had no
need for a loan. The fall in his interest levels was rather dramatic
as he abandoned me for yet another 15 or so minutes as he wrapped up
some potentially cozy loan deal.

In the end my visit turned out to be in vain since I was rather
definitely told that they had a policy against allowing test drives in
the dangerous evening traffic.

By any measure the value that Indian cities seem to offer in lifestyle
benefits, living space, property ownership and civilization seems
rather scarce. On an idle Saturday afternoon I must have done some
thinking for the idea that I pay more than half of my income in taxes
has come to be rather firmly implanted in my mind. It's not hard to
get at such a figure when you compute my basket of direct and indirect
taxes - namely, income tax at 33.33%, sales tax on anything I consume
at 12.5%, miscellaneous upstream taxes such as excise and customs, and
property and road taxes.

For this I don't get medical insurance, nor do I get the right to live
in a strife and peril free country. I have bad traffic, chaotic
infrastructure, inadequate supplies of dirty water and a corrupt
government that beggars contempt.

Were I to be rash enough to splurge on a house of my own at the
present moment, it would cost me a rather large fortune, financed no
doubt by usurious debt. Debt which I would possibly find hard to repay
if the Indian economy were to hit murky waters. Debt that would be in
vain were I to lose my land to some fancy record keeping at the land
records office, no doubt inspired by the invisible and sometimes all
too thoroughly visible hands of the land mafia. Debt that would make
me look like a fool when the property price like water finds its true
level.

Wise men have observed land is always a good investment for they don't
make more of it any more! Under ordinary circumstances that would
hold, but what we have in India is a spiraling inflation of urban land
prices while rural land continues to lie untouched by the Indian
economic miracle unless it has some potential of touching the margins
of our ever expanding urban zones.

Cities unlike our planet with its arguably finite quota of land can be
created by mere men in rather short time spans with a stroke of a pen.
All that an Indian city seems to need is a good road or two, meager
quantities of civic infrastructure and power and a legislation
declaring some lands as urban and the rest as SEZs (special economic
zones).

Which kind of brings me to the final note of doom that I think about
during the summer power cuts since I don't own a car or I'd have those
thoughts at the fuel pumps as well. Energy is central to our
existence, and the smart economies have squirreled away these
essential resources through a combination of forethought and action,
whether it be through wars or industrial take overs backed by military
might.  India on the other hand has a rather tenuous grasp over a
vaporware 

Re: [silk] Where is the US economy heading?

[shiv sastry]

On Sunday 29 Apr 2007 8:52 pm, Bruce Metcalf wrote:
> > This article has firmed up my mind.
>
> I take it then that you will *not* be joining us? Probably a wise choice.

That just about sums it up. I have friends in the US, classmates and others 
from medical college who are clearly wealthy (in the US, by US standards). I 
have heard some of them complaining about the cost of education (I mean 
college) in the US.

I doubt if my kids would stand the chance of a fart in a hurricane if I 
fiddled with their careers by forcing them up that route. They would probably 
be better off going where they want on their own, and on the basis of their 
own skills rather than on my karma as a category F4 immigrant.

shiv

Re: [silk] Where is the US economy heading?

[Dave Long]

> http://bullnotbull.com/archive/dow13k-1.html


My personal prediction is that it's much easier for currency to inflate  
than for housing prices to significantly decline.


Looking from the outside, much of the climb in the Dow has been a reaction  
to the decline of the dollar -- just for the value to hold steady, the  
former must goes up as the latter goes down.


In the 70's (back when cheney was last in the white house), all the US  
inflation was blamed on those Ay-rabs and their oil.  Assuming wars were  
financed then as they are now, I wonder how much of it was simply due to  
finally having to pay, for real, the bill on fighting in Vietnam?   
(belligerence and bonds never mixed well over c20)


I can easily call the current US administration cheats and liars.  I  
probably can't call them thieves.  But I can say that, in real, or at  
least EUR vs. USD (not even barrels of oil) terms, they may have managed  
to chop more than 10 trillion USD off national wealth over the last 6  
years.  Everybody calls .-bomb a bubble, but at least all the stupidities  
of the "new economy" were committed by people trying to offer win-win  
games.  This administration believes in playing lose-lose (at least as  
long as they can grab a bigger piece of a smaller pie) yet nobody calls  
"bubble" on them.


That rant having been made, I'll point out that my parents remind me from  
time to time that the situation in the old country is never as bad as it  
might seem from reading the papers.  I really don't expect the US to face  
an acute crash, especially if saner politics prevail, but wouldn't be at  
all surprised if the chronic adjustment to a world without throwaway  
energy proves more painful there than elsewhere.  Structural adjustments  
are not generally so liquid as financial.*



Neither my wife nor I have any need or intention to emigrate to the US.


I am always amused when I follow google news links to parochial papers who  
seem to believe that because I have a non-US IP address I am going to be  
interested in clicking on green card ads.


However I was weighing the "educational opportunity" options for my kids  
in the US. This article has firmed up my mind.


How old are your kids?  University-age?

-Dave

:: :: ::

* I spoke with an argentine a little while ago who told me about how they  
could have bank deposits in pesos or dollars, and one day, the government  
said that all dollar deposits were to be converted 1:1 to peso deposits.   
At least there, people thought they'd had the option to have accounts in  
something other than pesos; try opening a non-dollar account in the states  
sometime!

Re: [silk] Where is the US economy heading?

[Eugen Leitl]

On Sun, Apr 29, 2007 at 11:22:09AM -0400, Bruce Metcalf wrote:

> >I was weighing the "educational opportunity" options for my kids in 
> >the US.
> 
> By "education", I assume you do *not* mean public schools?

It's expensive, but it's still one of the best educations to be had
in the world, if you choose a matching (there might be better matches
abroad for specific areas, though) school. I wouldn't want
to move to the U.S. just to give your kids that education, though.
 
> 
> >This article has firmed up my mind.
> 
> I take it then that you will *not* be joining us? Probably a wise choice.

I did a two-year stint as a H1b in Southern California pre-.bomb (around 1998),
and decided to go back to Germany, since the company situation turned sour,
and I was unwilling to risk turning to an IT job, because the smell
of the crash and burn was already in the air.

In the retrospect, it was the right choice to make. I stopped being
a poor peripat(h)etic scholar, purchased real estate, found the love
of my life, moved in with the in-laws and rented out my own place.

I'm preparing as well for the coming winter as I can, unfortunately,
friends/relatives are rather unwilling to listen. Since there's not
a lot one can do anyway (perhaps I can install a solar thermal
system on the roof, before the methane prices shoot through the roof,
and I'll lose my (IT, unfortunately) dayjob), perhaps that's just
as well.

-- 
Eugen* Leitl http://leitl.org";>leitl http://leitl.org
__
ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://www.ativel.com http://postbiota.org
8B29F6BE: 099D 78BA 2FD3 B014 B08A  7779 75B0 2443 8B29 F6BE

Re: [silk] Where is the US economy heading?

[Bruce Metcalf]

shiv sastry wrote:


This stuff is particularly interesting to me.

I have been asked to attend a visa interview with my family in two in
3 weeks from today.

I was weighing the "educational opportunity" options for my kids in 
the US.


By "education", I assume you do *not* mean public schools?



This article has firmed up my mind.


I take it then that you will *not* be joining us? Probably a wise choice.

Bruce

Re: [silk] Where is the US economy heading?

[shiv sastry]

On Sunday 29 Apr 2007 10:06 am, Udhay Shankar N wrote:
> On Sat, April 28, 2007 8:52 pm, Venkat Mangudi wrote:
> > http://bullnotbull.com/archive/dow13k-1.html

This stuff is particularly interesting to me.

Ages ago, after living in the UK for long enough to acquire permanent resident 
status there I decided to return to India and not go to the US as many of my 
peers then did. 

Around that time my brother, who is a US citizen saw fit to sponsor me as a 
first degree relative to enter the US as an immigrant. One and a half decades 
later the papers have come through and I have been asked to attend a visa 
interview with my family in two in 3 weeks from today.

Neither my wife nor I have any need or intention to emigrate to the US. 
However I was weighing the "educational opportunity" options for my kids in 
the US. This article has firmed up my mind. 

thanks

shiv

Re: [silk] Where is the US economy heading?

[Udhay Shankar N]

On Sat, April 28, 2007 8:52 pm, Venkat Mangudi wrote:

> http://bullnotbull.com/archive/dow13k-1.html

I think that what will break the back of the US economy will be the coming
real estate crash (and its attendant death spiral of foreclosures and
distress sales) along with steadily rising oil prices.

Tough times ahead. Caveat emptor, whatever it is that you're a buyer of.

Udhay

-- 
((Udhay Shankar N)) ((udhay @ pobox.com)) ((www.digeratus.com))

Re: [silk] Where is the US economy heading?

[Deepa Mohan]

Excellent article.Thank you.I am not economist enough to have an
opinion about its predictions; I will wait and see.

Deepa.

On 4/28/07, Venkat Mangudi <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:

http://bullnotbull.com/archive/dow13k-1.html

> Inflation, Dow 13K and the Second Great Depression
> April 26, 2007
> Michael Nystrom, MBA
>
> When I was about 9 years old, my father took my elder sister and I to
> see a performance by a famous magician called Blackstone
> .   What I remember most
> about the show is when Blackstone, with a flourish of his cape, made
> an elephant appear onstage out of thin air.  It was an astonishing
> feat, and the crowd - including me - went wild with applause.   I had
> no idea how he did it.  After the show however, as we were exiting the
> theater, my elder sister said, "I didn't see what was so great about
> that elephant.  It just walked onto the stage and everyone started
> clapping."
>
> My sister's revelation was just as amazing as the trick itself, which
> suddenly made perfect sense. Blackstone had used some kind of sleight
> of hand, distracting the audience over here while he got the elephant
> to walk on stage over there.  With this simple, well-known magician's
> tactic, he managed to fool just about everyone.
>
> Yesterday, as the Dow "smashed its all time high," closing above
> 13,000 for the first time in history, I was strangely reminded of
> Blackstone's performance that day some thirty years ago.  The Dow's
> current levitating act is the result of another well-known sleight of
> hand trick used by central bankers. It's called inflation. Even so,
> most everyone is mesmerized by the performance.  Everyone seems
> transfixed, clapping in amazement at this spectacular feat.
>
>
> But at the margins of society, far from the action on Wall Street, a
> silent depression has already begun – one that is affecting the most
> vulnerable members of our society.  This depression is documented in
> two books that I recently finished reading: Tamara Draut's /Strapped:
> Why America's 20- and 30-Somethings Can't Get Ahead/
> ,
> and Anya Kamenetz's /Generation Debt: Why Now is a Terrible Time to be
> Young/
> .
> Both were recently released in paperback, and I was able to find the
> hardcopy editions at the local library.
>
> What both of these books confirm, though painstaking research and in
> painful detail, is what today's younger generation has already long
> known:  Simply surviving in this hyper competitive world is harder
> than ever, to say nothing of getting ahead.  As Draut points out, a
> college degree is the new high school diploma; to be considered for
> any kind of a "good job," you've got to have one.  The problem is that
> college tuition costs have been rising three to four times as fast as
> inflation for the past few decades, and financial aid hasn't kept up.
> Whereas the Baby Boom generation had the hat-trick advantage of cheap
> tuition, ample grants and scholarships, and a booming economy
> providing well paying jobs upon graduation, the younger generation has
> had none of these advantages.
>
> Financial aid has shifted increasingly towards loans instead of
> grants.  Because of higher tuition costs and generalized chronic
> inflation (in spite of official Federal government statistics),
> housing and food are more expensive too.  Many kids who want to go to
> college simply can't because they just can't afford it.  Of those who
> can cobble together enough money – and here I'm talking about working
> class families, not the privileged minority whose families can college
> without much pain - many have to work full time to make ends meet.
> And even then, in this inflation-ravaged world, it still isn't
> enough.  So they turn to credit cards, which are amply peddled on
> college campuses to bright-eyed, green newbies who don't know a thing
> about debt or personal finance.
>
> Welcome to higher education - at the school of hard knocks.
>
> Today it is not uncommon for young adults to graduate with
> unmanageable thousands of dollars in combined student loans and credit
> card debt.  "The next generation is starting their economic race 50
> yards behind the starting line," says Elizabeth Warren, co-author of
> /The Two Income Trap/
> .
> The debt is unmanageable because good jobs are hard to find.  This is
> not your father's economy.  Sure, there are plenty of jobs available.
> How does $8 per hour sound, no benefits? As Kamenets, a recent Yale
> grad points out:
>
> …when the Boomers were entering the workforce in 1970, the
> nation's largest private employer was General Motors.  They paid
> an average wage of $17.50 an hour in today's dollars.  The largest
> employer in the post-industrial economy is Wal-Mar