Re: [Vo]:Electric power less reliable than you might think
AlanG wrote: Inverters are required to have a 5 year warranty and initial reliability > (2003) was questionable. After one free replacement in 2004 my Xantrex > ST2500 has been solid. . . . How much does the inverter cost? Let me put it this way: How much does everything but the PV cell array cost? Pretend you substitute a cold fusion generator for the PV cell array. What else do you need, and what does it cost? > One final comment on CF for domestic electricity. It seems to me that the > most promising solution currently known is direct thermionic conversion. That is similar to thermoelectric conversion. Thermionic devices work at higher temperatures. I have heard they are used with gas flames and even wood fires in Russia. - Jed
Re: [Vo]:Electric power less reliable than you might think
Regarding my Photo Voltaic system, the total material cost was nearly $20k, and I did the install myself. I received a subsidy of almost $10k from the California Renewables program. This subsidy is still available but at a reduced level of around 25%. My remaining cost was a deductible business expense since I'm self employed as a systems engineer. So my actual out-of-pocket cost was around $6k. My panels are polycrystalline silicon and have an expected lifespan of 20 years. They degrade over time and the expected output at eol will be around 60%. So I expect a cumulative yield of around 70 mwh. The base cost of power produced would therefore be around $.29/kwh. With the various subsidies it's less than $.09/kwh. Even without the subsidy, the cost is better than my local peak summer rate of $.33 to $.56 (depending on usage tier). In fact, from May to September my electric bill is typically negative, and my average cost for power is around $35/month ($400 billed annually). Inverters are required to have a 5 year warranty and initial reliability (2003) was questionable. After one free replacement in 2004 my Xantrex ST2500 has been solid. The system is wired with 8 gauge TW copper, about 50 feet per panel (7 amp peak current). Recent inverter designs are all high-voltage series wired to reduce wire costs and bulk. So if my inverter needs replacing I will have to rewire my panels from parallel 48v to series string 300vdc. Best done at night I suppose One final comment on CF for domestic electricity. It seems to me that the most promising solution currently known is direct thermionic conversion. There's some interesting work being done, with conversion efficiency slowly creeping up. One in particular that got my attention is PowerChips: http://www.avtometals.com/press/AvtoMetals_pr20131118_globenewswire-print.pdf Alan Goldwater On 3/13/2014 12:40 PM, Jed Rothwell wrote: As I said, I suppose first-generation cold fusion electric generators will resemble today's standby generators or solar installations. I do not know much about either of them. Perhaps AlanG can tell us about the costs and problems with solar installations, with inverters and so on.
Re: [Vo]:Electric power less reliable than you might think
As I said, I suppose first-generation cold fusion electric generators will resemble today's standby generators or solar installations. I do not know much about either of them. Perhaps AlanG can tell us about the costs and problems with solar installations, with inverters and so on. This is only speculation but -- I suppose that first-generation devices will have moving parts. Perhaps they will be steam turbines. You need electricity all the time. Even in the middle of the night there are electric clocks, and "parasitic demand" from power supplies. You probably would not want a mechanical generator to run continuously. I suppose that a continuous duty cycle would cause the machine to wear out quickly. I can think of two ways to avoid this: 1. With a battery pack such as some solar installations use. That sounds expensive. 2. By using mains electricity below a certain threshold. For example you might set the machine to stay in standby mode until your household demand exceeds 1 kW. Your generator turns on and produces enough for your house, plus extra power which it feeds power back to the power company to reduce the power company bill. If total demand exceeds the capacity of your generator, you use more mains electricity. I do not know what a first generation machine might cost. I'm guessing something like $15,000 to $20,000. I base this on the cost of standby generators, and full-time generators used in remote locations. I am assuming the cold fusion device will operate with nickel which will make it cheap once mass production begins and competition begins. I do not know what the cost of inverters and the gadgets needed to feed power back to the electric company cost. Portable generators have only about a 2,000 hour lifespan. 20 kW standby generators cost only about $4,500. I doubt they would last long with continuous duty. I have not found any information on a full-time remote generator. There probably is not much of a market for that. I am assuming this would be a cogenerator, so it would reduce your equipment expenses somewhat. You do not have to pay for a space heating furnace which costs $1,000. This would save a great deal on your natural gas bill. In the distant future, I presume that thermoelectric devices will be perfected. Since they have no moving parts and will be no harm in leaving them online all the time with a constant duty cycle. By the time this happens the power companies will be out of business. Also, by this time, most large appliances will be self-powered, many of them directly with cold fusion heat, such as thermal refrigerators and air conditioners. Arthur Clarke suggested that with cold fusion stand-alone generators, and no connection to the power company, it would be safer to use DC rather than AC in the house. - Jed
Re: [Vo]:Electric power less reliable than you might think
Axil Axil wrote: Jed is a libertarian. > Emphatically not! - Jed
Re: [Vo]:Electric power less reliable than you might think
John Berry wrote: Jed, I am really curious how you envision a cold fusion on a consumer level > to work? > See chapter 15 of my book, and the standby generator in chapter 14. Obviously it would need an initial power source to start the reaction . . . > I expect that first generation devices will all be plugged into ordinary mains electricity. After that, conventional on board batteries should suffice. > . . . the reaction would generate heat which would need to be converted to > electricity with some realistic efficiency level. > 20 to 30% would be fine. The waste heat will be used for space heating or thermal air conditioning. > Then the chemistry of the cell and the electrodes need to be kept healthy, > I question how trouble free this would be. > After the technology matures it should not be a problem. > Plus if Palladium is used a rare and going to become rarer metal would be > used which would impact prices. > I hope that nickel can be used instead. Palladium could be a major stumbling block. > How often would someone want to get their cell serviced if it is to be > cheaper than regular power? Maybe once a year tops and only if the service > isn't too pricey. > I expect that home heating companies, Lowe's, Sears and others who now service heating, air conditioning and high end standby generators will service these. I have a service contract for my house. They come by two or three times a year. > Additionally explosive events have occurred with blocks, obviously rare, > but once there are millions of them even rare events are problematic. > They better find out why this happens before they commercialize the technology! Note, however, that gas fired equipment also causes explosions. Yesterday in New York City two building were leveled in a gas explosion. These things happen fairly often: http://www.naturalgaswatch.org/?cat=8 > What kind of LENR device do you think could work for homes, cars, etc... > Ultimately, when the technology matures, thermoelectric batteries are the best choice for electric power. No moving parts. - Jed
Re: [Vo]:Electric power less reliable than you might think
IMO the key to all of this is in the anomalies, things not acting in the normal way. LENR works under the rules set forth by quantum mechanics, just like your cell phone. But you do not question how you phone can be so smart; Where does the steam come from to power your phone? Few people understand how their smart phones work, and the get along just fine ... until they get the bill. On Thu, Mar 13, 2014 at 1:53 AM, Axil Axil wrote: > Jed is a libertarian. His ideas regarding personal freedom and > independence oftentimes conflict with economic priorities that minimize the > bottom line in all cases. > > What might be true for Jed's affluent neighborhood may not apply in > meeting the needs of the average Indian or Greek. > > A builder may reduce cost by supplying a neighborhood based power > cooperative or a regional power authority where the grid is not well > developed. > > With LENR, many excellent options can be supported without regard for fuel > transport, of waste problems. > > For example, a village based electrical supply system can be supported in > the middle of the African bush without much logistical support; no roads > needed. > > > > > > On Thu, Mar 13, 2014 at 1:33 AM, John Berry wrote: > >> That makes much more sense, but I got the impression Jed has the idea of >> one in the basement of the average home. >> >> The follow up though I have is that if he heat overall does not seem to >> be sourced entirely from fusion or other nuclear sources, it seems to me >> that this is another anomaly rich device along with many other FE devices >> and not genuinely separate field. >> >> The thing that other FE devices have in common are... >> Difficulties with reproducibility >> Multiple anomalies, LENR has the products of fusion in conditions that >> should not normally produce fusion and yet the energy output does not seem >> to be supported fully by fusion. >> >> I bet there are other anomalies, but my knowledge and interest in CF/LENR >> is rather low. >> >> IMO the key to all of this is in the anomalies, things not acting in the >> normal way. >> >> John >> >> >> >> >> On Thu, Mar 13, 2014 at 6:20 PM, Axil Axil wrote: >> >>> forget Palladium, LENR is not Palladium; When things settle down, maybe >>> nickel, Maybe tungsten, or some other transition metal, maybe iron. There >>> will be intense competition among reactor manufacturers to come up with a >>> market advantage using common and cheap structural materials, that is why >>> Palladium will never happen. >>> >>> A home co-generation system (electric power and heat) would be leased >>> from a provider with the excess power owned by the equipment provider. >>> >>> the most maintenance intensive part of the equipment would be the >>> generator. Most people will not have enough room in their house to support >>> a LENR co-generation system. Many people will still use grid power. >>> >>> LENR will mostly be used to retrofit grid based power plants. >>> >>> >>> On Thu, Mar 13, 2014 at 12:46 AM, John Berry wrote: >>> Jed, I am really curious how you envision a cold fusion on a consumer level to work? Obviously it would need an initial power source to start the reaction, the reaction would generate heat which would need to be converted to electricity with some realistic efficiency level. Then the chemistry of the cell and the electrodes need to be kept healthy, I question how trouble free this would be. Plus if Palladium is used a rare and going to become rarer metal would be used which would impact prices. Does any cold fusion cell yet tried seem to have the plate & electrolytic endurance to keep working in anything like a home user would need? How often would someone want to get their cell serviced if it is to be cheaper than regular power? Maybe once a year tops and only if the service isn't too pricey. Additionally explosive events have occurred with blocks, obviously rare, but once there are millions of them even rare events are problematic. Some of these concerns do not apply to Rossi's version of LENR or whatever the actual source of the anomalous energy is (IMO aetheric engineering), but many still would. What kind of LENR device do you think could work for homes, cars, etc... John On Thu, Mar 13, 2014 at 2:09 PM, Jed Rothwell wrote: > At this moment there are 8,699 customers without power in Georgia. > > http://outagemap.georgiapower.com/external/default.html > > *Active Outages:* 186 *Affected Customers:* 8,699 > > Since the great 1" blizzard I have been checking periodically. I have > seldom seen fewer than 100 customers without power. I do not think it has > ever been zero. > > Small blackouts are often caused by trees and traffic accidents. > > Augusta continues to suffer more blackouts than other parts of th
Re: [Vo]:Electric power less reliable than you might think
Jed is a libertarian. His ideas regarding personal freedom and independence oftentimes conflict with economic priorities that minimize the bottom line in all cases. What might be true for Jed's affluent neighborhood may not apply in meeting the needs of the average Indian or Greek. A builder may reduce cost by supplying a neighborhood based power cooperative or a regional power authority where the grid is not well developed. With LENR, many excellent options can be supported without regard for fuel transport, of waste problems. For example, a village based electrical supply system can be supported in the middle of the African bush without much logistical support; no roads needed. On Thu, Mar 13, 2014 at 1:33 AM, John Berry wrote: > That makes much more sense, but I got the impression Jed has the idea of > one in the basement of the average home. > > The follow up though I have is that if he heat overall does not seem to be > sourced entirely from fusion or other nuclear sources, it seems to me that > this is another anomaly rich device along with many other FE devices and > not genuinely separate field. > > The thing that other FE devices have in common are... > Difficulties with reproducibility > Multiple anomalies, LENR has the products of fusion in conditions that > should not normally produce fusion and yet the energy output does not seem > to be supported fully by fusion. > > I bet there are other anomalies, but my knowledge and interest in CF/LENR > is rather low. > > IMO the key to all of this is in the anomalies, things not acting in the > normal way. > > John > > > > > On Thu, Mar 13, 2014 at 6:20 PM, Axil Axil wrote: > >> forget Palladium, LENR is not Palladium; When things settle down, maybe >> nickel, Maybe tungsten, or some other transition metal, maybe iron. There >> will be intense competition among reactor manufacturers to come up with a >> market advantage using common and cheap structural materials, that is why >> Palladium will never happen. >> >> A home co-generation system (electric power and heat) would be leased >> from a provider with the excess power owned by the equipment provider. >> >> the most maintenance intensive part of the equipment would be the >> generator. Most people will not have enough room in their house to support >> a LENR co-generation system. Many people will still use grid power. >> >> LENR will mostly be used to retrofit grid based power plants. >> >> >> On Thu, Mar 13, 2014 at 12:46 AM, John Berry wrote: >> >>> Jed, I am really curious how you envision a cold fusion on a consumer >>> level to work? >>> >>> Obviously it would need an initial power source to start the reaction, >>> the reaction would generate heat which would need to be converted to >>> electricity with some realistic efficiency level. >>> >>> Then the chemistry of the cell and the electrodes need to be kept >>> healthy, I question how trouble free this would be. >>> >>> Plus if Palladium is used a rare and going to become rarer metal would >>> be used which would impact prices. >>> >>> Does any cold fusion cell yet tried seem to have the plate & >>> electrolytic endurance to keep working in anything like a home user would >>> need? >>> >>> How often would someone want to get their cell serviced if it is to be >>> cheaper than regular power? Maybe once a year tops and only if the service >>> isn't too pricey. >>> >>> Additionally explosive events have occurred with blocks, obviously rare, >>> but once there are millions of them even rare events are problematic. >>> >>> Some of these concerns do not apply to Rossi's version of LENR or >>> whatever the actual source of the anomalous energy is (IMO aetheric >>> engineering), but many still would. >>> >>> What kind of LENR device do you think could work for homes, cars, etc... >>> >>> John >>> >>> >>> On Thu, Mar 13, 2014 at 2:09 PM, Jed Rothwell wrote: >>> At this moment there are 8,699 customers without power in Georgia. http://outagemap.georgiapower.com/external/default.html *Active Outages:* 186 *Affected Customers:* 8,699 Since the great 1" blizzard I have been checking periodically. I have seldom seen fewer than 100 customers without power. I do not think it has ever been zero. Small blackouts are often caused by trees and traffic accidents. Augusta continues to suffer more blackouts than other parts of the state. At present it has: *Number of Outages:* 53 *Customers Affected:* 3,373 Even with cold fusion I suppose on any given day in Georgia there will be hundreds of people without power, but as I said before they will be in a better position to borrow power from their neighbors with extension cords, and by various other methods. - Jed >>> >> >
Re: [Vo]:Electric power less reliable than you might think
That makes much more sense, but I got the impression Jed has the idea of one in the basement of the average home. The follow up though I have is that if he heat overall does not seem to be sourced entirely from fusion or other nuclear sources, it seems to me that this is another anomaly rich device along with many other FE devices and not genuinely separate field. The thing that other FE devices have in common are... Difficulties with reproducibility Multiple anomalies, LENR has the products of fusion in conditions that should not normally produce fusion and yet the energy output does not seem to be supported fully by fusion. I bet there are other anomalies, but my knowledge and interest in CF/LENR is rather low. IMO the key to all of this is in the anomalies, things not acting in the normal way. John On Thu, Mar 13, 2014 at 6:20 PM, Axil Axil wrote: > forget Palladium, LENR is not Palladium; When things settle down, maybe > nickel, Maybe tungsten, or some other transition metal, maybe iron. There > will be intense competition among reactor manufacturers to come up with a > market advantage using common and cheap structural materials, that is why > Palladium will never happen. > > A home co-generation system (electric power and heat) would be leased from > a provider with the excess power owned by the equipment provider. > > the most maintenance intensive part of the equipment would be the > generator. Most people will not have enough room in their house to support > a LENR co-generation system. Many people will still use grid power. > > LENR will mostly be used to retrofit grid based power plants. > > > On Thu, Mar 13, 2014 at 12:46 AM, John Berry wrote: > >> Jed, I am really curious how you envision a cold fusion on a consumer >> level to work? >> >> Obviously it would need an initial power source to start the reaction, >> the reaction would generate heat which would need to be converted to >> electricity with some realistic efficiency level. >> >> Then the chemistry of the cell and the electrodes need to be kept >> healthy, I question how trouble free this would be. >> >> Plus if Palladium is used a rare and going to become rarer metal would be >> used which would impact prices. >> >> Does any cold fusion cell yet tried seem to have the plate & electrolytic >> endurance to keep working in anything like a home user would need? >> >> How often would someone want to get their cell serviced if it is to be >> cheaper than regular power? Maybe once a year tops and only if the service >> isn't too pricey. >> >> Additionally explosive events have occurred with blocks, obviously rare, >> but once there are millions of them even rare events are problematic. >> >> Some of these concerns do not apply to Rossi's version of LENR or >> whatever the actual source of the anomalous energy is (IMO aetheric >> engineering), but many still would. >> >> What kind of LENR device do you think could work for homes, cars, etc... >> >> John >> >> >> On Thu, Mar 13, 2014 at 2:09 PM, Jed Rothwell wrote: >> >>> At this moment there are 8,699 customers without power in Georgia. >>> >>> http://outagemap.georgiapower.com/external/default.html >>> >>> *Active Outages:* 186 *Affected Customers:* 8,699 >>> >>> Since the great 1" blizzard I have been checking periodically. I have >>> seldom seen fewer than 100 customers without power. I do not think it has >>> ever been zero. >>> >>> Small blackouts are often caused by trees and traffic accidents. >>> >>> Augusta continues to suffer more blackouts than other parts of the >>> state. At present it has: >>> >>> *Number of Outages:* 53 >>> *Customers Affected:* 3,373 >>> >>> Even with cold fusion I suppose on any given day in Georgia there will >>> be hundreds of people without power, but as I said before they will be in a >>> better position to borrow power from their neighbors with extension cords, >>> and by various other methods. >>> >>> - Jed >>> >>> >>> >> >
Re: [Vo]:Electric power less reliable than you might think
forget Palladium, LENR is not Palladium; When things settle down, maybe nickel, Maybe tungsten, or some other transition metal, maybe iron. There will be intense competition among reactor manufacturers to come up with a market advantage using common and cheap structural materials, that is why Palladium will never happen. A home co-generation system (electric power and heat) would be leased from a provider with the excess power owned by the equipment provider. the most maintenance intensive part of the equipment would be the generator. Most people will not have enough room in their house to support a LENR co-generation system. Many people will still use grid power. LENR will mostly be used to retrofit grid based power plants. On Thu, Mar 13, 2014 at 12:46 AM, John Berry wrote: > Jed, I am really curious how you envision a cold fusion on a consumer > level to work? > > Obviously it would need an initial power source to start the reaction, the > reaction would generate heat which would need to be converted to > electricity with some realistic efficiency level. > > Then the chemistry of the cell and the electrodes need to be kept healthy, > I question how trouble free this would be. > > Plus if Palladium is used a rare and going to become rarer metal would be > used which would impact prices. > > Does any cold fusion cell yet tried seem to have the plate & electrolytic > endurance to keep working in anything like a home user would need? > > How often would someone want to get their cell serviced if it is to be > cheaper than regular power? Maybe once a year tops and only if the service > isn't too pricey. > > Additionally explosive events have occurred with blocks, obviously rare, > but once there are millions of them even rare events are problematic. > > Some of these concerns do not apply to Rossi's version of LENR or whatever > the actual source of the anomalous energy is (IMO aetheric engineering), > but many still would. > > What kind of LENR device do you think could work for homes, cars, etc... > > John > > > On Thu, Mar 13, 2014 at 2:09 PM, Jed Rothwell wrote: > >> At this moment there are 8,699 customers without power in Georgia. >> >> http://outagemap.georgiapower.com/external/default.html >> >> *Active Outages:* 186 *Affected Customers:* 8,699 >> >> Since the great 1" blizzard I have been checking periodically. I have >> seldom seen fewer than 100 customers without power. I do not think it has >> ever been zero. >> >> Small blackouts are often caused by trees and traffic accidents. >> >> Augusta continues to suffer more blackouts than other parts of the state. >> At present it has: >> >> *Number of Outages:* 53 >> *Customers Affected:* 3,373 >> >> Even with cold fusion I suppose on any given day in Georgia there will be >> hundreds of people without power, but as I said before they will be in a >> better position to borrow power from their neighbors with extension cords, >> and by various other methods. >> >> - Jed >> >> >> >
Re: [Vo]:Electric power less reliable than you might think
Jed, I am really curious how you envision a cold fusion on a consumer level to work? Obviously it would need an initial power source to start the reaction, the reaction would generate heat which would need to be converted to electricity with some realistic efficiency level. Then the chemistry of the cell and the electrodes need to be kept healthy, I question how trouble free this would be. Plus if Palladium is used a rare and going to become rarer metal would be used which would impact prices. Does any cold fusion cell yet tried seem to have the plate & electrolytic endurance to keep working in anything like a home user would need? How often would someone want to get their cell serviced if it is to be cheaper than regular power? Maybe once a year tops and only if the service isn't too pricey. Additionally explosive events have occurred with blocks, obviously rare, but once there are millions of them even rare events are problematic. Some of these concerns do not apply to Rossi's version of LENR or whatever the actual source of the anomalous energy is (IMO aetheric engineering), but many still would. What kind of LENR device do you think could work for homes, cars, etc... John On Thu, Mar 13, 2014 at 2:09 PM, Jed Rothwell wrote: > At this moment there are 8,699 customers without power in Georgia. > > http://outagemap.georgiapower.com/external/default.html > > *Active Outages:* 186 *Affected Customers:* 8,699 > > Since the great 1" blizzard I have been checking periodically. I have > seldom seen fewer than 100 customers without power. I do not think it has > ever been zero. > > Small blackouts are often caused by trees and traffic accidents. > > Augusta continues to suffer more blackouts than other parts of the state. > At present it has: > > *Number of Outages:* 53 > *Customers Affected:* 3,373 > > Even with cold fusion I suppose on any given day in Georgia there will be > hundreds of people without power, but as I said before they will be in a > better position to borrow power from their neighbors with extension cords, > and by various other methods. > > - Jed > > >
Re: [Vo]:Electric power less reliable than you might think
> > > A cold front has moved in with 35 mph wind gusts. Mussed my hair really bad.
[Vo]:Electric power less reliable than you might think
At this moment there are 8,699 customers without power in Georgia. http://outagemap.georgiapower.com/external/default.html *Active Outages:* 186 *Affected Customers:* 8,699 Since the great 1" blizzard I have been checking periodically. I have seldom seen fewer than 100 customers without power. I do not think it has ever been zero. Small blackouts are often caused by trees and traffic accidents. Augusta continues to suffer more blackouts than other parts of the state. At present it has: *Number of Outages:* 53 *Customers Affected:* 3,373 Even with cold fusion I suppose on any given day in Georgia there will be hundreds of people without power, but as I said before they will be in a better position to borrow power from their neighbors with extension cords, and by various other methods. - Jed
