Re: [Vo]:Message that will not post
I posted it as a test, but I should have removed the END at the bottom as I assume that was not in the rejected post. Looks like it got through, so not idea why it didn't post from Jed's account. Maybe some funny encoding got put in the original that did not survive copy and paste? On Mon, Jan 19, 2015 at 4:49 PM, John Berry berry.joh...@gmail.com wrote: Axil Axil janap...@gmail.com wrote: Your vision of the LENR future is too limited. I am not talking about LENR. I am talking about the economics and cost efficiency of different energy systems, such as central generation, PV and -- in the future -- LENR. Every technology has built-in imperatives, and a built-in way in which it can be used to greatest advantage, at the least cost. When a new technology is developed there are usually many competing standards and implementations. These are quickly narrowed down to one or two. Examples: Long-play vinyl records after WWII settled on 33 rpm and 45 rpm, replacing 70 rpm and other proposed standards. There were some 6 different kinds of RAM memory circa 1970. By 1980, only semiconductor memory survived. Things like bubble memory never had a chance. After 1980 personal computers quickly settled on the PC or Mac standard. At this time, the Intel processor pushed other designs out out of the main market. They survive only in niche applications. . . . Standards are narrowed down to one or two for many reasons, primarily because the design engineers, tech support people, service people and others can only master one or two techniques, and there is a limited amount of RD money. Once a good method -- or a good-enough method -- emerges, others tend to fall by the wayside. This is why cold fusion electricity is likely to be used by one method, and only one method, after the technology matures. It is not because cold fusion itself is limited to one method. It is because manufacturers, people, and society as a whole are not inclined to test many different implementations after a reasonably good one is found. We find something that works and we stick to it. This is why many sub-optimal technologies continue in use for a long time, even after better ones have been invented. This is also a matter of economics. All else being equal, the lowest-price method prevails in the end. Individual generators will be cheaper than a combination of grid plus generators and for that reason alone, grid distribution cannot compete and will not survive. END
Re: [Vo]:Message that will not post
Bob Cook frobertc...@hotmail.com wrote: I will look for the designs that I can repair. The LENR devices should be like a navy reactor where the sailors can do the repairs. That is not going to happen, I am afraid. The whole trend of technology for the past 50 years has been towards modularity and no user serviceable parts within. Devices are designed to be closed and unbreakable for many reasons. Basically, because it works better. Many devices cannot be fixed by you because they were not made by humans in the first place. Computer chips and the Prius engine can only be made by robots with super-human dexterity. We will never be able to take these things apart or fix them. I am pretty sure that all cold fusion devices will be controlled by computers integrated into the design, and they will resemble things like ni-cad batteries, made with purity and tolerances that only a robotic machine can achieve. Taking one apart will be like trying to take apart and re-assemble a hard disk, or an incandescent light. - Jed
Re: [Vo]:Message that will not post
Eric Walker eric.wal...@gmail.com wrote: There is a sticking point with this one idea, however -- there's an economic incentive for vendors to set things up so that people are locked into their own technology. If you bought an Apple computer and lose or destroy the power adapter . . . Sure. There is a lot more to it than I could fit in such a brief message, and this is another factor that pushes towards stasis. Industry standards are another. There are also factors that jog a technology out of a rut. You mentioned teh Gillette razor blade holder. I don't think people use those things much anymore, after the invention of the plastic, throw-away razor. (I wouldn't know; I have not shaved in 40 years.) Progress and market forces eventually overcome marketing gimmicks. If Defkalion had actually introduced a reactor that needed to be recharged every 6 months, I am pretty sure other manufacturers would soon have introduced ones that need recharging every 6 years, or never. I think that recharging stuff was a marketing gimmick. - Jed
[Vo]:Message that will not post
Axil Axil janap...@gmail.com wrote: Your vision of the LENR future is too limited. I am not talking about LENR. I am talking about the economics and cost efficiency of different energy systems, such as central generation, PV and -- in the future -- LENR. Every technology has built-in imperatives, and a built-in way in which it can be used to greatest advantage, at the least cost. When a new technology is developed there are usually many competing standards and implementations. These are quickly narrowed down to one or two. Examples: Long-play vinyl records after WWII settled on 33 rpm and 45 rpm, replacing 70 rpm and other proposed standards. There were some 6 different kinds of RAM memory circa 1970. By 1980, only semiconductor memory survived. Things like bubble memory never had a chance. After 1980 personal computers quickly settled on the PC or Mac standard. At this time, the Intel processor pushed other designs out out of the main market. They survive only in niche applications. . . . Standards are narrowed down to one or two for many reasons, primarily because the design engineers, tech support people, service people and others can only master one or two techniques, and there is a limited amount of RD money. Once a good method -- or a good-enough method -- emerges, others tend to fall by the wayside. This is why cold fusion electricity is likely to be used by one method, and only one method, after the technology matures. It is not because cold fusion itself is limited to one method. It is because manufacturers, people, and society as a whole are not inclined to test many different implementations after a reasonably good one is found. We find something that works and we stick to it. This is why many sub-optimal technologies continue in use for a long time, even after better ones have been invented. This is also a matter of economics. All else being equal, the lowest-price method prevails in the end. Individual generators will be cheaper than a combination of grid plus generators and for that reason alone, grid distribution cannot compete and will not survive. END
Re: [Vo]:Message that will not post
John Berry berry.joh...@gmail.com wrote: Maybe some funny encoding got put in the original that did not survive copy and paste? I thought that might be it, so I copied, pasted and sent it again in the same thread, Why cold fusion will not need . . . I got the reject notice and I checked the archive: http://www.mail-archive.com/vortex-l%40eskimo.com/ Neither copy 1 nor 2 is there. I thought there might be an offending character in the message, so I split it into to. Both parts went through. Very strange! I have not seen this kind of Internet glitch in many years. - Jed
Re: [Vo]:Message that will not post
I will look for the designs that I can repair. The LENR devices should be like a navy reactor where the sailors can do the repairs. If you cannot buy replacements in the drug store, I'll look for a different model. Cars were like that. Hopefully it will be too easy to produce simple units that any Tom, Dick or Harry and make in their basement. Even Gillette was replaced by bic and other good razors. This technology from the looks of it will be to simple for built in complexity to assure a market. The government should immediately establish standards that require a consistent design for mating LENR reactors to electricity generators. Rossi seems to have these objectives in mind. The IEEE and ASME should get on the band wagon in this regard. However, an international organization for LENR standards will probably come forth first, maybe in connections with the LENR Cities organization in Switzerland already guiding the industries future. Bob - Original Message - From: Eric Walker To: vortex-l@eskimo.com Sent: Sunday, January 18, 2015 5:25 PM Subject: Re: [Vo]:Message that will not post On Sun, Jan 18, 2015 at 5:18 PM, Jed Rothwell jedrothw...@gmail.com wrote: It is because manufacturers, people, and society as a whole are not inclined to test many different implementations after a reasonably good one is found. We find something that works and we stick to it. Overall the presentation sounds good. There is a sticking point with this one idea, however -- there's an economic incentive for vendors to set things up so that people are locked into their own technology. If you bought an Apple computer and lose or destroy the power adapter, you will need to purchase an overpriced Apple power adapter. If you bought a Gillette razor blade holder, you will need to buy Gillette razor blades. I suspect something similar could happen with LENR power sources, at least at first. Eric
[Vo]:Message that will not post
[This is strange. This message keeps coming back with an error. It is not important, but let me post half of it to see what is rejected. Axil Axil janap...@gmail.com wrote: Your vision of the LENR future is too limited. I am not talking about LENR. I am talking about the economics and cost efficiency of different energy systems, such as central generation, PV and -- in the future -- LENR. Every technology has built-in imperatives, and a built-in way in which it can be used to greatest advantage, at the least cost. When a new technology is developed there are usually many competing standards and implementations. These are quickly narrowed down to one or two. Examples: Long-play vinyl records after WWII settled on 33 rpm and 45 rpm, replacing 70 rpm and other proposed standards. There were some 6 different kinds of RAM memory circa 1970. By 1980, only semiconductor memory survived. Things like bubble memory never had a chance. After 1980 personal computers quickly settled on the PC or Mac standard. At this time, the Intel processor pushed other designs out out of the main market. They survive only in niche applications. . . . [to be continued]
Re: [Vo]:Message that will not post
[Here is the rest . . . I wonder if this will post.] Standards are narrowed down to one or two for many reasons, primarily because the design engineers, tech support people, service people and others can only master one or two techniques, and there is a limited amount of RD money. Once a good method -- or a good-enough method -- emerges, others tend to fall by the wayside. This is why cold fusion electricity is likely to be used by one method, and only one method, after the technology matures. It is not because cold fusion itself is limited to one method. It is because manufacturers, people, and society as a whole are not inclined to test many different implementations after a reasonably good one is found. We find something that works and we stick to it. This is why many sub-optimal technologies continue in use for a long time, even after better ones have been invented. This is also a matter of economics. All else being equal, the lowest-price method prevails in the end. Individual generators will be cheaper than a combination of grid plus generators and for that reason alone, grid distribution cannot compete and will not survive. END
Re: [Vo]:Message that will not post
On Sun, Jan 18, 2015 at 5:18 PM, Jed Rothwell jedrothw...@gmail.com wrote: It is because manufacturers, people, and society as a whole are not inclined to test many different implementations after a reasonably good one is found. We find something that works and we stick to it. Overall the presentation sounds good. There is a sticking point with this one idea, however -- there's an economic incentive for vendors to set things up so that people are locked into their own technology. If you bought an Apple computer and lose or destroy the power adapter, you will need to purchase an overpriced Apple power adapter. If you bought a Gillette razor blade holder, you will need to buy Gillette razor blades. I suspect something similar could happen with LENR power sources, at least at first. Eric
