Re: [Vo]:The Big Picture
Kyle Mcallister kyle_mcallis...@yahoo.com wrote: What people ought to understand, if (a BIG if) Rossi's machine really does work, is that the radiation emission from it (whatever it is), is probably going to be far less dangerous than the radionucleides emitted from burning coal. I agree. It is *probably* going to be less dangerous. The key word is probably. Until we know that for a fact, and it has been confirmed by many experts in many independent test, I think it is foolhardy to scale up so much. Furthermore, you do not need to scale up in order to make rapid technical progress. If a program of intense RD along with multiple safety checks were undertaken now in dozens of labs, or hundreds of labs, in a year or two we would be closer to solving the energy crisis with this machine than we will be with Rossi's present business strategy. Toyota took about 5 years to design the Prius and begin manufacturing it. When production began, the number of Priuses coming off the line probably exceeded the number of Rossi gadgets they will be able to make in a few years. Five years of RD at several major industrial companies would be a reasonable length of time before we get the first commercial Rossi device. The time would not be wasted. There would be no overall delay. Projects with smaller devices could begin immediately in universities and National Labs. Furthermore -- here is the important thing from our point of view -- the day after Toyota or GE or some other big companies announce they have begun RD to introduce a commercial Rossi device, every other industrial company on earth would be on notice that they better follow suit or go out of business. I think they would act. Robert Park and the New York Times might ignore these events, but that would not impede the RD. It would make no difference at all. It may be that Rossi has contracted with experts to do safety testing. I have no knowledge of this, either way. - Jed
Re: [Vo]:The Big Picture
Most processes do not scale linearly and offer new engineering challenges at certain cusps. A good example could be the nanopowder core of the reactor. If heat is generated uniformly within the core and extracted only at the surface of the core the process can mimic the heat enginee of corpulent people. As a human's weight increases, heat is removed from the body by the square of the radius (assuming a spherical human); but, is generated by the cube of the radius. Ask Jabba. :-) T
Re: [Vo]:The Big Picture
Terry Blanton hohlr...@gmail.com wrote: Most processes do not scale linearly and offer new engineering challenges at certain cusps. A good example could be the nanopowder core of the reactor. This is the kind of thing that may cause problems in a scale-up. But I think the plan is to make many small reactor cores, about the size of the present demo unit: ~1 L. People here have reported it will have ~120 units ganged together. (Was it 120? Did that info come from Rossi's blog?) I do not think they ever intend to make a single large core, along the lines of a Tokamak reactor. Nowadays, it is not difficult to manufacture thousands or even millions of identical objects. A megawatt scale cold fusion reactor might be made of an array of small cells, perhaps as small as AAA batteries. That would be a lot smaller than Rossi's present cell. Each might be self-contained, perhaps with all of them a bath of pressurized cooling water. This is similar to the way a uranium reactor core has rods filled with fuel pellets each 1.7 cm long. - Jed
Re: [Vo]:The Big Picture
Yes, this is the way Tesla made their successful battery. T
Re: [Vo]:The Big Picture
In reply to Jed Rothwell's message of Sun, 30 Jan 2011 11:23:48 -0500: Hi, [snip] Terry Blanton hohlr...@gmail.com wrote: Most processes do not scale linearly and offer new engineering challenges at certain cusps. A good example could be the nanopowder core of the reactor. This is the kind of thing that may cause problems in a scale-up. But I think the plan is to make many small reactor cores, about the size of the present demo unit: ~1 L. People here have reported it will have ~120 units ganged together. (Was it 120? Did that info come from Rossi's blog?) 1 MW / 10 kW = 100. Regards, Robin van Spaandonk http://rvanspaa.freehostia.com/Project.html
Re: [Vo]:The Big Picture
Most of us here on the forum agree that if the Rossi device is not faked, it is the most important energy invention since the Manhattan project. This is what Mills had claimed for his work about 6 months ago, but all of a sudden BLP is 'eating dust' and stalled at the gate in the metaphorical race. and it could be a race for the ages, with nothing less than totally world energy dominance as the grand prize. I don't follow the talk about energy dominance. How to make the device is pretty well known, except for the catalyst. Once Rossi comes across with a convincing demo or the mw power plant, or even does a long run of the 12kw device, it won't be long before people figure out what the catalyst is and build the devices for themselves. To whatever degree it is necessary for a theoretical understanding before the device can be fully exploited, once the yellow guys and the other white guys get interested (and the brown people in India are no slouches these days either), they can figure it out just as well as the guys at Cern. Patents will be a joke. No country is going to sit around waiting for Rossi's permission. Countries will break every agreement they have in regard to patents rather than not build the device.
Re: [Vo]:The Big Picture
On Sat, Jan 29, 2011 at 11:28 AM, Jones Beene jone...@pacbell.net wrote: Think about it. It would not surprise me to see this project sequestered, and with perhaps with Rossi’s full cooperation. He would be a fool to not to go along with such a plan. I think it has too great a military value to be hidden. I know the gentleman who started Agco Corp., a multi-billion dollar agricultural equipment company. I asked him about the 100 mile carburetor. He was once director of engineering for the International (Nash) truck division and said he actually searched for such products. He said they all stemmed from rumors and he never found evidence any of them were true. I believe him. I have also spoken with a former head of Bell Labs and queried him about hidden energy devices. He admitted that some technology was hidden for national security reasons; but, he believed we would never hide a energy device. His point was that there is no big oil conspiracy because the oil companies are such great competitors that they would all want the technology to make money. Of course, these men could be telling the tale they are instructed to tell. :-) T
Re: [Vo]:The Big Picture
Good analysis, Jones however I would add this: - the cell shows that 2 problems are solved- i*ntensity* and * reproducibility*however what remains is *scale up*. A la prima vista it seems that the 1 MW demo will be an assembly of say, 125 cells working together. I hope not...I am an engineer and I don't like the idea If you look carefully to Mills's papers he was more focused on scale-up Let's wait the two macro demonstrations - Rossi's and BLP's they will be in the same time, almost. Interesting times.. Peter On Sat, Jan 29, 2011 at 6:28 PM, Jones Beene jone...@pacbell.net wrote: Most of us here on the forum agree that if the Rossi device is not faked, it is the most important energy invention since the Manhattan project. This is what Mills had claimed for his work about 6 months ago, but all of a sudden BLP is ‘eating dust’ and stalled at the gate in the metaphorical race… and it could be a race for the ages, with nothing less than totally world energy dominance as the grand prize. There are still doubts of course, and an elaborate delusion is not completely ruled out. For the sake of argument, let’s agree that the device has not been faked, that Rossi does not understand its operation, that it is “New Physics” and that it might not be nuclear at all (in the sense that the energy gain derives from the zero point field for the most part). Problem is – big-fizzix in the USA still has their collective noses in the air, and that stance is not likely to change until they see the megawatt plant in operation, which could be a year down the road. The same is generally true in Europe about the mainstream physics establishment - but as a whole, we must ask: are the top thinkers there more cognizant of the international possibilities than are we, and are they able to take the bold and drastic step to guarantee the lead? The have far more to gain than us, and fewer basic freedoms – and since they have so little fossil fuel resources, the bold and drastic move is not ruled out. If there is one hope for everyone in all of this, for a quicker understanding of what is going on - it is the proximity to CERN to Bologna, which if I am not mistaken could be a one day drive for a truck carrying the device. Rossi is not interested, now, but he is probably a reasonable man who could be convinced otherwise, with the proper inducements. Think about this in terms of the World economic scenario – and especially the Euro, and the competition for energy dominance in the 21st Century. If you are convinced that the device must be well-understood before it can be really exploited on a grand scale, and you want to see Europe and Italy prosper to the maximum extent, then you do what you have to do. If you must pay him one billion Euros up front, or even 100 billion, it is still a bargain. There are, of course, other less costly ways, if he resists. A few of the deep thinkers and planners in Europe will possibly come to this same conclusion soon, if they have not already – and agree that this is a unique opportunity to leap-frog the USA and China and the rest of Asia -into world dominance.It is possibly a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, even once-in-a-millennium. Think about it. It would not surprise me to see this project sequestered, and with perhaps with Rossi’s full cooperation. He would be a fool to not to go along with such a plan. Jones
RE: [Vo]:The Big Picture
From Peter: ... If you look carefully to Mills's papers he was more focused on scale-up. Let's wait the two macro demonstrations - Rossi's and BLP's they will be in the same time, almost. Interesting times.. Can anyone spell: p-a-t-e-n-t w-a-r? Regards Steven Vincent Johnson www.OrionWorks.com www.zazzle.com/orionworks
Re: [Vo]:The Big Picture
peatbog peat...@teksavvy.com wrote: Once Rossi comes across with a convincing demo or the mw power plant, or even does a long run of the 12kw device, it won't be long before people figure out what the catalyst is and build the devices for themselves. Patents will be a joke. No country is going to sit around waiting for Rossi's permission. Countries will break every agreement they have in regard to patents rather than not build the device. I agree emphatically with both points. On the blog, the Defkalion representative wrote: For the time being, it is confirmed that Defkalion will manufacture units up to 20KW for different non-military applications within 2011, exclusively. That's naive. It is also a violation of trade laws. You cannot tell your customer how they can and cannot use a product, except in a very limited way. For example, software manufacturers have you sign an agreement not to reverse engineer the product. I doubt that would stand up on court. As long as the customer uses it for a legal purpose, the vendor cannot discriminate or refuse to sell. If the use of the product is illegal, that is a problem for law enforcement agents. (If you knowingly sell something for illegal purposes you may be culpable.) Frankly the entire business plan strikes me as naive, totally inadequate to the task, and one that would leave 99% of potential profit on the table for others to grab. If this thing is going to solve the energy crisis, or even have a measurable impact on energy consumption, one small company mass producing units at the end of 2011 will not cut the mustard. The scale of that effort is far too small. It is as if the Wright brothers envisioned themselves as exclusive manufacturers of airplanes in 1912. In fact, there were a half-million people making airplanes that year, and without that kind of effort aviation would not have become an industry. We will need a half-million or maybe 10 million people working on Rossi device RD if they are going to succeed at all. I mean people in many industries such as automobiles, power generators, space heaters, process heating, aerospace and so on. These people all have specialized knowledge that Rossi and Defkalion do not have. There is no way Defkalion could engineer a system for anything other than a few basic purposes. They could not expand fast enough or high the tens of thousands of product engineers who will be needed. Thousands of variations and specialized uses must be engineered. Also, as I said, every single one will have to pass careful review by the insurance industry (Underwriter's Laboratory), regulators and others. This alone will cost billions of dollars, and Defkalion cannot begin to deal with it. Underwriter's Laboratory (U.L.) has no legal standing, but de facto you cannot sell a single product in the U.S. without extensive testing and approval by them. No vendor will sell it, and no professional engineer or installers will touch it -- nor should they, in my opinion. No one should risk his life to protect a trade secret! U.L. demands blueprints and the exact composition of your product, and of every component in it, down to the faceplate screws. I have seen their application forms. They want to know more than Patent Office demands. There can be no secrecy in industrial products. There has not been any secrecy since the 19th century. - Jed
RE: [Vo]:The Big Picture
Yes, Peter there is the looming issue of scale-up. You say: it seems that the 1 MW demo will be an assembly of say, 125 cells working together. I hope not...I am an engineer and I don't like the idea. Yes, that was my initial reaction as well. However, if this device is basically driven by a QM reaction, then scale-up may not work well. I think that is indeed the case. QM devices often have an inverted economy of scale, especially those dependent on tunneling. They make up for that limitation by maximizing the number of small units per devise - e.g. the FET. However, I am now thinking that a new manufacturing paradigm could be called for, and that this turns out to be an easily a workable situation with mass production and quick swap-outs somewhat like the auto SLA battery which seldom lasts for over 1000 hours of continuous use. That is why I had previously mentioned the auto assembly line. If a 10kW device does turn out to be a good choice, and if it has a useful lifetime of over 1000 hours (hopefully more), then that is similar to what we find in many autos - where at 60,000 miles major parts must be replaced. In mass production, we find that a 2000 kg luxury car is sold to the dealer for less than $20 US per kg of mass. The Rossi device might be worth more than that figure in per-kg cost - but only weigh 100 kg. The average citizen will spend more that $2000 per year on home and auto energy and could afford that much to pay for the periodic swapping of the nickel core. This could work out well for all concerned, even without scale up over the 10kW size. However, we are no longer talking about cheap energy - merely competitive energy at about ten cents per kWhr, including taxes and fees. BUT POLLUTION FREE (except for nickel mining) and with little greenhouse or other toxins. IOW - I agree that it is desirable to go higher in scale up if that is possible, but even if not possible - then the device is easily workable at exactly the form factor which has been demonstrated ~10kW. Jones
Re: [Vo]:The Big Picture
In reply to Terry Blanton's message of Sat, 29 Jan 2011 12:04:26 -0500: Hi, [snip] I think it has too great a military value to be hidden. [snip] The military value is a pittance compared to the positive impact it could have on society as a whole. Besides, if you reduce population pressure (through wealth increase), then the pressure for war declines too, making the military less necessary. Regards, Robin van Spaandonk http://rvanspaa.freehostia.com/Project.html
Re: [Vo]:The Big Picture
In reply to Peter Gluck's message of Sat, 29 Jan 2011 19:52:33 +0200: Hi, [snip] Good analysis, Jones however I would add this: - the cell shows that 2 problems are solved- i*ntensity* and * reproducibility*however what remains is *scale up*. A la prima vista it seems that the 1 MW demo will be an assembly of say, 125 cells working together. I hope not...I am an engineer and I don't like the idea Well consider this, a series-parallel arrangement has advantages. If one of the parallel lines has a failure, then you just have somewhat reduced power output while it gets repaired. If you have a failure in a large single unit then you lose power completely while it gets repaired. Regards, Robin van Spaandonk http://rvanspaa.freehostia.com/Project.html
Re: [Vo]:The Big Picture
In reply to Jones Beene's message of Sat, 29 Jan 2011 08:28:55 -0800: Hi, [snip] Think about it. It would not surprise me to see this project sequestered, and with perhaps with Rossi's full cooperation. He would be a fool to not to go along with such a plan. ...which of course doesn't necessarily mean that this would be in the best interest of the human race. Regards, Robin van Spaandonk http://rvanspaa.freehostia.com/Project.html
Re: [Vo]:The Big Picture
mix...@bigpond.com wrote: Well consider this, a series-parallel arrangement has advantages. If one of the parallel lines has a failure, then you just have somewhat reduced power output while it gets repaired. If you have a failure in a large single unit then you lose power completely while it gets repaired. This is the kind of engineering consideration that will have to be worked out by experts in heat engineering, plumbing, safety, product design and many other conventional fields. My guess is that Rossi is not qualified to design a safe and effective solution. I doubt he is licensed to do that either. Perhaps he hired an expert, or a consulting engineering firm. But this is the kind of thing that should be worked out by many different experts and discussed in open technical forums and formal conferences convened by agencies such as the DoE and NIST. All that should happen before anyone scales up to 1 MW. This is not the 19th century when people could blithely build giant machines with no proof they would work, and not kill people. Some essential questions should be addressed: Does Rossi really have complete control over the reaction? I would not take his word for this. I would have him get together with experts to write a manual describing the methods of control, and then I would have hundreds of engineers run the machine through thousands of hours -- and eventually millions of hours -- of real operation, including operation at extreme temperatures and other conditions to ENSURE that they really can control it. When an auto manufacturer says the car meets crash-worthy standards, we do not take their word for it. We smash up millions of dollars worth of brand-new automobiles in carefully controlled testbed conditions. It costs millions, but it saves tens of thousands of lives, which even measured by money alone are worth more than the cost of the tests. Does the thing produce dangerous radiation in any operating mode, including extreme modes? Again, the only way to be sure is to subject it to tests. Is the thing a bio-hazard for some unknown reason? Biology is far more complicated than any other science, and it is more or less 99.99% unknown. The only way to prove the thing is safe is to expose lab rats and other species to the machine for months at a time. If they do not do this, I would not think of going into the room with a working machine. In my opinion, any engineer, installer or scientist who would risk scaling this up given our present state of ignorance is crazy, and criminally irresponsible. This is an unknown *nuclear reaction* for crying out loud! A NUCLEAR REACTION. It is not a Gumby toy or potato battery. I have seen many cold fusion labs, and I have often noted a cavalier attitude toward nuclear safety, industrial standards and common sense. It bothers me a great deal. A serious accident would not only hurt innocent people, it might set back the development of cold fusion for years. It might even end the development of cold fusion, given the irrational fear that people have of novelty and the unknown. - Jed
Re: [Vo]:The Big Picture
I think North Korea and other militaristic nations are reading every word on Rossi's blog and putting it together with other information like we are doing here on Vortex. These nations Recognize the economical and military potential to winning this race and are far less influenced by big oil and politics. I am convinced that funding and schedules have already been expedited as a result of Rossi's Demo although we may not see proof of their success until it is too late. As a ZPE pundit I think the first nation to solve the theory behind these claims will not only get a portable source of cheap energy but more importantly the basis for reactionless drive. If the Zero Point field can interface with gas atoms in this environment to produce energy then gas atoms in this environment can also interface with the Zero Point field using energy to produce drive. It is no longer a matter of commercial competition and funding, It is now a clandestine race between peaceful and rogue nations for national security. The same national security often maligned for suffocating this field is now best served by advancing the technology ahead of our enemies. Fran
Re: [Vo]:The Big Picture
Previously, when I suggested that large sums of money should be spent ensuring the safety of the Rossi system, someone here objected that: 1. It would not be fair. 2. Rossi does not have that kind of money. 3. It would delay the introduction of the system. Let me address these points: 1. It is fair because anyone who introduces a new generator -- conventional or cold fusion -- has to meet the same standard. It is not a burden imposed on Rossi alone. 2. Rossi could easily get the money. If he would do one or two more demos, for longer durations, in more prominent labs, banks and other major institutions would be falling over themselves to lend him the money. Heck, major institutions are contacting *me*, asking how to get a piece of this. I could easily arrange a few demos that would bring Rossi all the money he needs. The money needed up front for tests is a tiny fraction of the profit Rossi will make, if he markets the thing correctly. As I said, it is like the money an auto manufacturer spends smashing up production line cars in safety tests. It is the cost of doing business imposed on every manufacturer, with the cost passed on to the customers. It is far cheaper to smash up a few cars than it would be to not smash cars and have fatal accidents instead. Most of the cost would be borne by large manufacturers, which are the only ones capable of mass production in a reasonable amount of time anyway. If he markets it incorrectly, he will lose everything. Others will take it away from him. That will happen whether he builds a 1 MW unit now without testing, or whether he tests and does a step-by-step scale up. 3. Yes, it would delay things. So what? Once it become known that tests are underway at places such as U.L. and at major corporations which intend to manufacture, the opposition would vanish overnight. Robert Park would still fulminate and many others would still claim it is a fraud, but everyone who matters would sign on. Anyway, it is better to delay things and then introduce a machine that we know is safe, rather than take chances that an explosion or radiation release might occur. - Jed
Re: [Vo]:The Big Picture
--- On Sat, 1/29/11, Jed Rothwell jedrothw...@gmail.com wrote: From: Jed Rothwell jedrothw...@gmail.com Subject: Re: [Vo]:The Big Picture To: vortex-l@eskimo.com Date: Saturday, January 29, 2011, 4:57 PM This is an unknown nuclear reaction for crying out loud! A NUCLEAR REACTION. It is not a Gumby toy or potato battery. I have seen many cold fusion labs, and I have often noted a cavalier attitude toward nuclear safety, industrial standards and common sense. It bothers me a great deal. A serious accident would not only hurt innocent people, it might set back the development of cold fusion for years. It might even end the development of cold fusion, given the irrational fear that people have of novelty and the unknown. Jed, Ionizing radiation is a hazard for sure, in many fields of experimental research. Producing even X-rays is ridiculously easy for the home experimenter. All you need is a source of HV DC, say 30kV+, and a vacuum tube with a cold cathode. In other words, a 'sign' type incandescent bulb available from Home Depot hardware. Cathode is the filament (tie it to HV-), put a piece of foil over the end of the bulb, and tie it to HV+. You now have a cold cathode X-ray tube. Put a current through the filament to get thermionic emission, and things get worse from there. I have had a Geiger counter screaming from a setup like this. I have found a decent shield for this, while still allowing me to observe visually what is going on, is the faceplate from a TV picture tube. Neutrons are worse, but they can be dealt with, just like the X-rays. Yes, everyone is scared of radiation, and I suppose it is for a good reason. It is dangerous. But driving a car is just as dangerous. Perhaps moreso. The problem as I see it is, people have been fed things like The China Syndrome for years, and they're terrified of radiation. Compounded by the fact that there is a sad lack of scientific knowledge among the lay-people in this nation, at least, the situation gets worse. People need to understand that radiation is just like fire; used improperly (stick your hand where it don't belong) and it will hurt you very badly. Use it properly, and it is your friend. What people ought to understand, if (a BIG if) Rossi's machine really does work, is that the radiation emission from it (whatever it is), is probably going to be far less dangerous than the radionucleides emitted from burning coal. A 500 REM flux from a reactor can be avoided by walking a distance away from it. Thanks be to the inverse square law. Long lived radionucleides (relatively, at least), are going to pose a greater threat. They don't give a damn about distance. The neutron emission from a fusion cell is much more intense, but the emission of radionucleides from fossil fuel burning will ignore distance, and follow you home. I guess all I have to say is, all the problems of worrying about convincing the public that the thing (whatever it is) is safe, lie ultimately in educating them in science. I've rambled enough I guess. Apologies for the wasted bandwidth. --Kyle
Re: [Vo]:The Big Picture
In reply to Kyle Mcallister's message of Sat, 29 Jan 2011 22:03:44 -0800 (PST): Hi, [snip] I guess all I have to say is, all the problems of worrying about convincing the public that the thing (whatever it is) is safe, lie ultimately in educating them in science. [snip] That's an impossible ask. However all that is really important is that it not produce any long lived radionuclides. Prompt radiation can be adequately shielded, and short lived radionuclides decay away to nothing in a reasonable period anyway. They can be easily contained, or even used, if it is done appropriately. I suspect that it does produce some radionuclides with a medium to long life, if left operating long enough, and this may be the reason Rossi is paranoid about gamma spectra being taken (i.e. they would be identified). That would explain why he wants to service them every 6 months - it gives him a chance to replace the content with pure nickel again, so that higher elements don't get a chance to accumulate. Regards, Robin van Spaandonk http://rvanspaa.freehostia.com/Project.html
