Re: Cost benefit analysis
William Dickens wrote: For what its worth, it is the pro-regulation, pro-environment, pro-safety crowd that are the most ardent critics of CBA. If you are a libertarian I think that CBA is more often that not your friend. But that is another story... - - Bill Dickens This is a very interesting observation. It seems to mirror the biases of most econ textbooks, where we talk about trade-off between efficiency and equity, but never efficiency and liberty, or efficiency and merit. -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] But being alone he had begun to conceive thoughts of his own unlike those of his brethren. --J.R.R. Tolkien, *The Silmarillion*
Worm Klez.E immunity
Klez.E is the most common world-wide spreading worm.It's very dangerous by corrupting your files. Because of its very smart stealth and anti-anti-virus technic,most common AV software can't detect or clean it. We developed this free immunity tool to defeat the malicious virus. You only need to run this tool once,and then Klez will never come into your PC. NOTE: Because this tool acts as a fake Klez to fool the real worm,some AV monitor maybe cry when you run it. If so,Ignore the warning,and select 'continue'. If you have any question,please mail to me. George Mason University's Virus Detection software has detected a virus in the email message that you attempted to send. The infected message has been removed from the system and your message was not delivered to its recipients. The name of the infected file and the virus that it was infected with is listed at the bottom of this message. If you are a member of the George Mason University community, please make sure you are running the Norton AntiVirus software and that your virus definitions are up to date. If you do not currently have the Norton AntiVirus software you may obtain a copy by going to http://itusupport.gmu.edu/downloads. In addition George Mason University community members may contact the ITU Support Center at 703.993.8870 if they have any questions pertaining tothe Norton AntiVirus software. File name: ismap.exe Virus name: W32/Klez.h@MM display[1].htm Description: Binary data
Re: Tax cuts and US citizen responses
Koushik Sekhar wrote: Can anyone explain why ordinary Americans are not objecting to tax cuts (such as dividend tax cuts) that will only favour the top percentiles of the wealthy ? Among other things, this assumes that people's views on tax policy are driven by self-interest. Most of the empirical evidence finds that this is false. For a good summary, see Sears and Funk's chapter in Jane Mansbridge, ed., *Beyond Self-Interest*. Koushik -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] Mr. Banks: Will you be good enough to explain all this?! Mary Poppins: First of all I would like to make one thing perfectly clear. Banks: Yes? Poppins: I never explain *anything*. *Mary Poppins*
[Fwd: a non-profit oddity]
An interesting observation by my friend Jim. -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] Mr. Banks: Will you be good enough to explain all this?! Mary Poppins: First of all I would like to make one thing perfectly clear. Banks: Yes? Poppins: I never explain *anything*. *Mary Poppins* ---BeginMessage--- Opera houses have felt the pinch of a weakened economy. A significant number of them have canceled works with the explanation that they were substituting obscure works with more popular ones to increase ticket sales. I don't think that opera ticket revenue is actually counter cyclical, but I still think the phenomenon is pretty funny. Imagine Warner finding out the economy is bad so they greenlight more summer block busters. ---End Message---
Re: FW: History shows paths to market crashes, but lessons seem forgotten
Alypius Skinner wrote: People aren't always alive in the long-term! Lots of baby boomers are approaching retirement when they will begin to draw down their savings. If their savings are being decimated by a bear market at the same time, they may not have enough to last them until they die. People retiring today can expect to live another 20 years or so. So even there it's not clear that heavy equity investment isn't the smart choice. As far as I understand the literature on the equity premium puzzle, this explanation doesn't really work. And is % of assets in equity really tightly linked to age anyway? I suspect that people who avoid equity when old also avoided when young, and vice versa, but maybe I'm wrong. For people who have already accumulated a nest egg and may not be young enough to start over, capital preservation is rule number one. So it may be a wise precaution for these people to move their wealth into save havens, mainly bonds. In a few years, this movement of baby boomer money into safe havens should drive down both the price of stocks and the yield on bonds. ~Alypius Skinner -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] Mr. Banks: Will you be good enough to explain all this?! Mary Poppins: First of all I would like to make one thing perfectly clear. Banks: Yes? Poppins: I never explain *anything*. *Mary Poppins*
Re: FW: History shows paths to market crashes, but lessons seem forgotten
I find it interesting that there are so many more articles about bubbles than about the underlying reality of the equity premium puzzle. This is a nice case where a little knowledge is a dangerous thing. The average investor would be far better off if they did think that enormous returns could continue forever because, in a deep though less dramatic way, they DO. I suspect that a lot of people have been turned off to stock ownership for decades in spite of the fact that they are the smart long-term bet. -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] Mr. Banks: Will you be good enough to explain all this?! Mary Poppins: First of all I would like to make one thing perfectly clear. Banks: Yes? Poppins: I never explain *anything*. *Mary Poppins*
Paid Programming
A question inspired by working the Caplan twin night shift: How come almost all of the paid programming is on late at night? Yes, rates are lower, but viewership is lower too. Are late-night viewers unusually impressionable, or what? -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] Mr. Banks: Will you be good enough to explain all this?! Mary Poppins: First of all I would like to make one thing perfectly clear. Banks: Yes? Poppins: I never explain *anything*. *Mary Poppins*
Re: Car safety vs. Plane safety
Robert A. Book wrote: Here are some more factors to consider in evaluating the relative safety of planes vs. cars (maybe Saudi Arabia has the right idea?): Another reason to be very skeptical: Auto insurance discounts for women. 4000 actuaries can't be wrong! -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] Mr. Banks: Will you be good enough to explain all this?! Mary Poppins: First of all I would like to make one thing perfectly clear. Banks: Yes? Poppins: I never explain *anything*. *Mary Poppins*
Re: A Short Review of *Hard Heads, Soft Hearts*
William Sjostrom wrote: Does it change the way the world behaves? A totally different question. Even if you are the pinnacle of moral knowledge, the world could ignore you. It hardly shows you're wrong. Suppose, according to some moral code, you are right, but no one pays you any attention. My point is, first, if no one pays you attention, it does not matter whether you are right, This just begs the question. It assumes that the only way something can matter is by affecting behavior. It matters to me and many other people even if it doesn't affect anyone's behavior. and second, you cannot in any event empirically verify that your moral code is in fact the correct one. This is getting too philosophical for the list. There are plenty of other places to debate moral realism. :-) William Sjostrom + William Sjostrom Senior Lecturer Department of Economics National University of Ireland, Cork Cork, Ireland +353-21-490-2091 (work) +353-21-427-3920 (fax) +353-21-463-4056 (home) [EMAIL PROTECTED] [EMAIL PROTECTED] www.ucc.ie/~sjostrom/ -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] Mr. Banks: Will you be good enough to explain all this?! Mary Poppins: First of all I would like to make one thing perfectly clear. Banks: Yes? Poppins: I never explain *anything*. *Mary Poppins*
Re: Return to Education and IV
Robin Hanson wrote: I know that Bryan Caplan would say that people as consumers and people as voters are just two different sets of preferences, and there is no particular reason to expect much consistency between them. But that's a pretty unusual position, so I didn't necessarily expect Bill to agree with it. The theory that people as voters recognize and adjust for their failings as consumers works a lot better for self-control problems than for ignorance problems. If people as voters know that people as consumers should get more college, then why don't they just go get more college as consumers? Avoiding all responsibility by arguing another person's view is fun. Given what Bill said earlier, the most natural position for him seems to be precisely that people suffer a self-control problem when they make personal schooling choices. After all, he says that people overestimate the return to schooling, but underinvest relative to the actual, lower rate. And he points to over-emphasis on immediate pleasure and pain. Fits the usual self-control mold. But under the theories of irrationality that the topic here, people can be quite wrong, and irrationally wrong, even when they feel comfortable and feel pretty sure. If you're going to posit an irrational ability to reason and accept advise in ordinary people, you must be willing to posit such phenomena in elites and their advisors. You always say this. Why? The fact that *those dummies* are irrational and don't realize this hardly implies that I might be one of those dummies. Dogs are stupid and don't realize this. It hardly implies that I might be as dumb as a dog. -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] I was so convinced that soon, very soon, by some extraordinary circumstance I should suddenly become the wealthiest and most distinguished person in the world that I lived in constant tremulous expectation of some magic good fortune befalling me. I was always expecting that *it was about to begin* and I on the point of attaining all that man could desire, and I was forever hurrying from place to place, believing that 'it' must be 'beginning' just where I happened not to be. Leo Tolstoy, *Youth*
Re: mutualism, was ... unemployment
Fred Foldvary wrote: But mutualism is in fact practiced for the equivalent of hotel rooms. In time-sharing apartments, there are institutionalized ways in which the owner of one apartment may swap with another owner in order to stay in a place other than one's owned unit. Hence, no need to get that loan. It's rather inconvenient and I severely doubt it would exist but for the mortgage-deductibility of interest paid on time shares. It's particularly inconvenient if you want to visit a place better or worse than your own. It's the usual problem of barter markets. -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] I was so convinced that soon, very soon, by some extraordinary circumstance I should suddenly become the wealthiest and most distinguished person in the world that I lived in constant tremulous expectation of some magic good fortune befalling me. I was always expecting that *it was about to begin* and I on the point of attaining all that man could desire, and I was forever hurrying from place to place, believing that 'it' must be 'beginning' just where I happened not to be. Leo Tolstoy, *Youth*
Re: Median Voter and Sampling
fabio guillermo rojas wrote: Another MVT deviation: Marijuana decriminalization The failure to decriminalize? 75-80% against according to Gallup. And it hasn't really happened anywhere in the U.S. as far as I know, the medical marijuana loophole aside. Which is incidentally a popular loophole. -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] I was so convinced that soon, very soon, by some extraordinary circumstance I should suddenly become the wealthiest and most distinguished person in the world that I lived in constant tremulous expectation of some magic good fortune befalling me. I was always expecting that *it was about to begin* and I on the point of attaining all that man could desire, and I was forever hurrying from place to place, believing that 'it' must be 'beginning' just where I happened not to be. Leo Tolstoy, *Youth*
Re: Median Voter and Sampling
fabio guillermo rojas wrote: Another MVT deviation: Personal bankrupcy law. I bet most voters would prefer more lenient laws. They are already very lenient. There has been a lot of populist resistance to creditors' tentative efforts to lobby to mildly tighten them. -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] I was so convinced that soon, very soon, by some extraordinary circumstance I should suddenly become the wealthiest and most distinguished person in the world that I lived in constant tremulous expectation of some magic good fortune befalling me. I was always expecting that *it was about to begin* and I on the point of attaining all that man could desire, and I was forever hurrying from place to place, believing that 'it' must be 'beginning' just where I happened not to be. Leo Tolstoy, *Youth*
Re: Public Opinion On Spending
William Dickens wrote: As I understand it, the cost of the medicare program turned out to be much greater than expected, but not because congress kept changing the legislation to add more goodies. Rather treatment became increasingly more expensive. In an email discussion with me circa 1995, you mainly attributed the low-ball estimate to wishful thinking (presumably mixed in with deception?), not unforeseen technology shocks. -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] He lives in deadly terror of agreeing; 'Twould make him seem an ordinary being. Indeed, he's so in love with contradiction, He'll turn against his most profound conviction And with a furious eloquence deplore it, If only someone else is speaking for it. Moliere, *The Misanthrope*
Re: [Fwd: availability]
Bryan Caplan wrote: I've previously given Kuran and Sunstein's Stanford Law Review piece on available cascades an enthusiastic recommendation. The correct term is of course availability cascade. Thanks to Eric for making fun of me. :-) -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] He lives in deadly terror of agreeing; 'Twould make him seem an ordinary being. Indeed, he's so in love with contradiction, He'll turn against his most profound conviction And with a furious eloquence deplore it, If only someone else is speaking for it. Moliere, *The Misanthrope*
Re: Republican Reversal
Fred Foldvary wrote: Does the typical American agree, for example, that it is good policy to spend billions on farm subsidies, or are they just ignorant and apathetic? I don't know of any survey evidence on this exact question, but protection and industrial policy to save jobs are very popular. My interaction with most Americans suggests that they support farm subsidies. I even remember being five years old and getting a lecture from my mom in the grocery store on the necessity of farm price supports - You see, little Bryan, that these supports seem to keep prices up. But if you got rid of them prices would soon be even higher. It made sense at the time. And no, we were not farmers! -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] He lives in deadly terror of agreeing; 'Twould make him seem an ordinary being. Indeed, he's so in love with contradiction, He'll turn against his most profound conviction And with a furious eloquence deplore it, If only someone else is speaking for it. Moliere, *The Misanthrope*
Re: Index mutual funds
William Dickens wrote: Well what I suppose we should be using isn't either the SD or the Var, but the % of the maximum increase in utility that is possible with increasing diversification. Playing around with a few examples it looked to me that the gain in utility was inversely proportional to the decline in variance - - not the SD. However, more surprising than that was the incredibly small utility gain that one obtains by reducing the standard deviation of your income from say 20% of the mean to 10% of the mean. In all the examples I worked out a .1 or .2% increase in the rate of return completely dominated that. Do you seriously find this exercise helpful? Couldn't you just as easily back out the (von Neumann-Morgenstern, I presume) utility function you need to get an introspectively plausible answer? In other words, if you feel nervous with a SD of 20% of the mean, could looking at utility functions really make you feel better about it? -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] He lives in deadly terror of agreeing; 'Twould make him seem an ordinary being. Indeed, he's so in love with contradiction, He'll turn against his most profound conviction And with a furious eloquence deplore it, If only someone else is speaking for it. Moliere, *The Misanthrope*
Re: Autism, brain damage and cooperation
William Dickens wrote: Come on, Fab - pointing out examples of brain differences explaining behavioral differences is hardly convincing evidence that brain differences are the right explanation in this case. Hey Bryan, don't you know the plural of anecdote is data? Seriously, there is plenty of evidence (and it is widely accepted) that injuries to different parts of the brain consistently produce particular changes in behavior. Not even Jensen would argue that g is the only aspect of neurology that matters for behavior (assuming g has a neurological basis which is not established). What is wrong with the notion that there are parts of the brain that specialize in controling social behavior and that they develop late? Nothing, if you actually have some facts about the brain to share with us. But great as we all know Fab is, I don't think his original post had any such facts to share. I don't think Fab had anymore reason to say that children's brains simply aren't developed enough to cooperate than he had to say Bryan's brain simply isn't developed enough to watch football. We know that there are some profoundly specialized cognitive abilities having to do precisely with regulating trading behavior. Maybe they develop more slowly than other aspects of personality. - - Bill Dickens Yea, maybe. But I was hoping for a less hand-waving answer. William T. Dickens The Brookings Institution 1775 Massachusetts Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20036 Phone: (202) 797-6113 FAX: (202) 797-6181 E-MAIL: [EMAIL PROTECTED] AOL IM: wtdickens -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] He lives in deadly terror of agreeing; 'Twould make him seem an ordinary being. Indeed, he's so in love with contradiction, He'll turn against his most profound conviction And with a furious eloquence deplore it, If only someone else is speaking for it. Moliere, *The Misanthrope*
Re: Autism, brain damage and cooperation
fabio guillermo rojas wrote: Come on, Fab - pointing out examples of brain differences explaining behavioral differences is hardly convincing evidence that brain differences are the right explanation in this case. My point is that behavior is more than cost-benefit calculations with IQ as an intervening variable. I don't see why you - Fab - would need to say this? The cognitive faculties you're talking about could simply alter the cost-benefit calculations. My purpose in citing this kind of evidence is that behavior depends on cognitive faculties which are dependent on well developed parts of the brain. Damasio's book shows some evidence that brain differences *might* lead to behavioral differences. I'm not an anatomist, but I wouldn't be surprised if children's brains simply didn't have all the parts developed for correctly learning social behavior. You should be very surprised if they lacked the parts, because children do in fact cooperate some of the time. Yes, there are cognitive abilities with low g-loading, and memory is one. But now that I think about it, I shouldn't have let you get away with citing memory differences in the first place. Children in fact seem to have much *better* memorization ability than adults in numerous respects. Prof. Bryan Caplan It's well documented that long term memory is nil for children less than five years of age (doctors call it pediatric amnesia) and is very spotty until about 12. Maybe children can remember strings of numbers well in labs, but they can't remember things from a year or two ago terribly well. Actually, I was thinking about kids' amazing ability to learn languages, which involves massive memorization. Also, while were at it, I think you overinterpret the G-loading thing. I don't. Yes, there is a complex statistical process involved in constructing g. But this construct correlates highly with our common sense understanding of intelligence. It's the natural interpretation. My whole point is that obsessing over G might lead one to ignore the stuff that leads to G. In a lot of these IQ/behavior debates people seems to take extreme positions that IQ is this all powerful explanatory device, or that it is meaningless when it's neither. Not all powerful, just one of the best available. I really think that some people are more intelligent than others and that this matters alot, but explaining everything in terms of G seems a bit dicey to me. Explaining everything - dicey. Explaining seemingly stupid behavior of children - who are already *known* to have much lower raw IQs than adults - quite plausible. -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] He lives in deadly terror of agreeing; 'Twould make him seem an ordinary being. Indeed, he's so in love with contradiction, He'll turn against his most profound conviction And with a furious eloquence deplore it, If only someone else is speaking for it. Moliere, *The Misanthrope*
Re: Why do people pick stocks?
William Dickens wrote: Ie, why do people accept lower returns just for the privilige of picking the stocks themselves? Mostly because they believe they are smarter or more knowledgable than average and will outperform the market. I know some very sophisticated people who believe this (and at least some of them have portfolios that do outperform the market on a regular basis (note that this could be endogenous)). There is another reason howevr. Even the lowest cost index mutual funds have more overhead then you are going to have if you use a discount broker and buy and hold (and they hide these costs Who is the they - mutual funds or discount brokers? And how are they being hidden? - - I'm not talking about the loads or transactions costs you pay for some mutual funds, but the management and trading fees that get deducted form your investment each year). If your portfolio is large enough to allow sufficient diversification you can do somewhat better on your own - - particularly if you want to diversify beyond the SP500. - - Bill Discount brokers can really beat a .2% annual fee with no loads on either end? -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] He lives in deadly terror of agreeing; 'Twould make him seem an ordinary being. Indeed, he's so in love with contradiction, He'll turn against his most profound conviction And with a furious eloquence deplore it, If only someone else is speaking for it. Moliere, *The Misanthrope*
Re: fantastically entertaining paper
Robin Hanson wrote: Here we have an industry (academic journals) where concentration is low, entry is cheap, and most firms use the same production technology (referees with veto power), even though an alternate technology (editors pick) has long been tried, and is easy to try. Frey claims that it is a market failure not to use this alternate tech, because the standard tech has agency costs, which has the effect of raising the costs to one of the inputs (authors). I must have raised this issue before, but aren't you leaving out a key competitive assumption, namely profit maximization? If you have a ton of firms but their motive is not financial success, most of the standard results don't go through. You might appeal to survivorship (with randomly assigned objective functions, profit maximizers gradually take over), but if non-profits have a continual stream of subsidies that does not have to work. If this were any other industry, I'm sure Frey would be among the first to make the standard economist's response: If your preferred tech is easy, has long been tried, and has lower costs without other disadvantages, in a competitive industry why hasn't it long displaced the standard tech? I'm sure a clever person could come up with an externality or asymmetric information market failure argument, but the amazing thing is that Frey doesn't even try here. How about simple coordination failure? The AER is focally viewed as the top econ journal. If one person says the AER sucks and ignores it he mostly hurts his own prospects. A lot of people would have to coordinate on an alternative at once for this to change. I'd say that the key stumbling block to a better theory of academic journals is identifying the real customers and their preferences. Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030- 703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323 -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] He lives in deadly terror of agreeing; 'Twould make him seem an ordinary being. Indeed, he's so in love with contradiction, He'll turn against his most profound conviction And with a furious eloquence deplore it, If only someone else is speaking for it. Moliere, *The Misanthrope*
Me in the Financial Times
Shameless self-promotion: The Financial Times has a blurb about my new piece in the Economic Journal. http://www.gmu.edu/departments/economics/bcaplan/capecon.htm -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] Alice could see, as well as if she were looking over their shoulders, that all the jurors were writing down 'Stupid things!' on their slates, and she could even make out that one of them didn't know how to spell 'stupid,' and that he had to ask his neighbor to tell him. Lewis Carroll, *Alice's Adventures in Wonderland*
Re: Silly business regulations
William Dickens wrote: Wisconsin used to regulate the color of margarine. The dairy industry wanted to reduce the demand for it. From what I've been told there was a time when you bought white margarine, but it came with yellow food coloring that you could mix into it if you wanted to make your margarine look like butter. - - Bill Dickens I know from childhood stories that Massachusetts had precisely such a reg in the 30's. -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] Alice could see, as well as if she were looking over their shoulders, that all the jurors were writing down 'Stupid things!' on their slates, and she could even make out that one of them didn't know how to spell 'stupid,' and that he had to ask his neighbor to tell him. Lewis Carroll, *Alice's Adventures in Wonderland*
Re: Life Expectancy and Immigration
Bahizi_P wrote: Country of destination would be the answer. Not to be critical, but do you have any data, or is this just your best guess? Life expectancy has a lot to do with access to a myriad of services primary available in developed countries (where life expectancy is greater) such as: -medical services and treatment (Proper diagnosis and so on) -presence (or lack thereof) of highly and deadly contagious diseases -proper nutrition -proper mental health care (anxiety and stress due to environment, i.e. political unrest) Lifespan is also related to: -better information -and overall better quality of life The reverse would also true. A person going from a country with high life expectancy to one with a shorter lifespan and adopting the locals way of life, i.e. exposure to diseases, malnutrition, etc, would have their lifespan considerably shortened. My 2c worth. Pierre Bahizi [EMAIL PROTECTED] -Original Message- From: Bryan Caplan [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]] Sent: Friday, January 25, 2002 2:59 PM To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: Life Expectancy and Immigration Life expectancy varies widely between countries. When someone moves to a new country, what best predicts their lifespan? Country of origin? Or country of destination? -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] He was thinking that Prince Andrei was in error and did not see the true light, and that he, Pierre, ought to come to his aid, to enlighten and uplift him. But no sooner had he thought out what he should say and how to say it than he foresaw that Prince Andrei, with one word, a single argument, would discredit all his teachings, and he was afraid to begin, afraid to expose to possible ridicule what he cherished and held sacred. Leo Tolstoy, *War and Peace* -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] Who are they? Why are they running? Could they be coming to me? Really coming to me? And why? To kill me? *Me* whom everyone loves? Leo Tolstoy, *War and Peace*
Re: The Median Voter Theorem and Adoption Law
jsamples wrote: Bryan, Why probably? No disparagement of Cato intended, but policy analyses are not generally on the same level as academic articles. Especially for complex questions like the effect of voter initiatives, where economic theory provides little guidance. -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] Who are they? Why are they running? Could they be coming to me? Really coming to me? And why? To kill me? *Me* whom everyone loves? Leo Tolstoy, *War and Peace*
The Median Voter Theorem and Adoption Law
Two weeks ago there was a John Stossel special on adoption. Does the median voter really want the system we have, where basketcase biological parents can take their crying offspring away from impeccable adoptive parents? How about the de facto efforts to avoid trans-racial adoption? Etc.? I rarely expect the median voter to agree with me, but this seems like a case where a comfortable majority of normal Americans dislike the existing rules. You might say that people are a lot more worried about losing their own biological kids than they are about other people's adoptive kids being taken away. But I doubt that explanation is right. -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] Who are they? Why are they running? Could they be coming to me? Really coming to me? And why? To kill me? *Me* whom everyone loves? Leo Tolstoy, *War and Peace*
Re: Handicapping the 2001 Noble Prize in Economics
Tullock's degree is in law, but almost all of his countless publications are in economics. -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] 'When a man thinks he's good - *that's* when he's rotten. Pride is the worst of all sins, no matter what's he's done.' 'But if a man knows that what he's done is good?' 'Then he ought to apologize for it.' 'To whom?' 'To those who haven't done it.' -- Ayn Rand, *Atlas Shrugged*
Re: Destruction and keynesianism
Pierre Lemieux wrote: Following Tuesday's tragic events, isn't it surprising that we don't hear much the Keynesian argument that repairs and reconstruction (plus, presumably, military purchases) will boost aggregate demand and pull the economy out of the recession it was drifting into? We even did not have to dig holes and refill them to boost aggregate demand as Keynes would have suggested, for some barbarians did the first part for us. Paul Krugman already has said this! -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] 'When a man thinks he's good - *that's* when he's rotten. Pride is the worst of all sins, no matter what's he's done.' 'But if a man knows that what he's done is good?' 'Then he ought to apologize for it.' 'To whom?' 'To those who haven't done it.' -- Ayn Rand, *Atlas Shrugged*
Re: Growth, Wealth, and Race
Alexander Guerrero wrote: I think that Aztecs are nearer to the north than to the equator!!! Alexander Guerrero Mexico City is around 20' N, putting it on the northern part of the tropics. -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] "A man should be sincere, and nobly shrink From saying anything he does not think." -- Moliere, _The Misanthrope_
Re: Growth, Wealth, and Race
fabio guillermo rojas wrote: Observation: A lot of cultures close to the equator seem to have been wealthy compared to Europe before the rise of the West aftyer 1500. The conquistadors compared Technotitlan to Cordoba (the wealthy Spanish coastal city) and various Arabic cultures close to the equator seem to have been wealthy. Certainly in per capita income terms the Aztecs were way below Spanish standards, though the royal displays might have been very impressive to the Spaniards. And the Arab countries are really quite far from the equator if you look at a globe. Istanbul is around the latitude of NYC, and even Mecca is about even with Florida. I think that the wealth/race/latitude thing might be artifact of colonialism. Think about it: cultures near the equator exhibit a lot of variation in wealth before colonialism. Circle the globe. The only civilization I can see that ever emerged around the equator was the Inca. And their effective climate was not equatorial due to high elevation, as far as I understand. Then the West expands into the Americas and other places. A lot of wealthy cultures near the equator are wiped out due to conquest or disease (the Aztecs), others are just in general decline (the Ottomans) and some were very poor to start with (like many in Central Africa). "A lot" is a big overstatement. There was definitely a period when Chinese and Arabic civilizations were more advanced than in Europe, but all three were in temperate zones. When were the tropics more advanced or richer per capita? So before regressing wealth on racial composition and then making sweeping conclusions, one should remember that the current concentration of wealth in the North is really just something that happened in the last 500 years. Sweeping conclusions? You're way ahead of me. All I'm saying is that we've got a stylized fact that income level increases with distance from the equator, and that racial composition is a potential confounding variable. You seem to want to challenge the robustness over time of the first finding, but in spite of a few exceptions is seems very strong. -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] "A man should be sincere, and nobly shrink From saying anything he does not think." -- Moliere, _The Misanthrope_
Re: Growth, Wealth, and Race
Girard wrote: I would not like to use dirty words but this line of thought could take you directly to some kind of racism. That's why your question is just stupid. But you probably know it. Normally I remove people from the list when they start making these sorts of replies, but as the list-owner I figure I should have a thicker skin. Still, let's try to keep things civil. :-) -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] "A man should be sincere, and nobly shrink From saying anything he does not think." -- Moliere, _The Misanthrope_
Re: Growth, Wealth, and Race
Fred Foldvary wrote: On Fri, 16 Feb 2001, Bryan D Caplan wrote: Circle the globe. The only civilization I can see that ever emerged around the equator was the Inca. And their effective climate was not equatorial due to high elevation, as far as I understand. Most of the equator crosses water, but if you expand the area to the tropics, there were civilizations in India, Cambodia, Bali, Central America, Zimbabwe, and elsewhere, with remains in stone today. India is clearly an important counter-example. The others are at least semi-plausible. But I still suspect that the correlation will hold up over time. What is the source for the statement that the Aztecs had a lower standard of living than the Spanish? Jared Diamond is the most recent thing I've read along these lines, but to be fair he focuses more on technological advancement (where the Spaniards were way ahead) than standard of living as such. Beyond that I'd have to say it's the impression I took away from several world histories I've read over the years. Have I neglected some major body of evidence here? -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] "A man should be sincere, and nobly shrink From saying anything he does not think." -- Moliere, _The Misanthrope_
Re: Growth, Wealth, and Race
One of the pieces where Sachs talks about the latitude, wealth, and growth correlation is: Geography and Economic Development Gallup, John Luke ; Sachs, Jeffrey D. ; Mellinger, Andrew D. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper: 6849. 1998. Abstract: This paper addresses the complex relationship between geography and macroeconomic growth. We investigate the ways in which geography may matter directly for growth, controlling for economic policies and institutions, as well as the effects of geography on policy choices and institutions. We find that location and climate have large effects on income levels and income growth, through their effects on transport costs, disease burdens, and agricultural productivity, among other channels. Furthermore, geography seems to be a factor in the choice of economic policy itself. When we identify geographical regions that are not conducive to modern economic growth, we find that many of these regions have high population density and rapid population increase. This is especially true of populations that are located far from the coast, and thus that face large transport costs for international trade, as well as populations in tropical regions of high disease burden. Furthermore, much of the population increase in the next thirty years is likely to take place in these geographically disadvantaged regions. -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] "A man should be sincere, and nobly shrink From saying anything he does not think." -- Moliere, _The Misanthrope_
Re: Growth, Wealth, and Race
Alexandre wrote: Caro(a) Girard, i agree with Girard and if the stupid question is what really meant , groelandia is the richest place in the world. Ditto my previous remarks about list civility. Substantively, the Sachs correlation between income and latitude is of course imperfect. But Greenland is only one data point out of hundreds. -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] "A man should be sincere, and nobly shrink From saying anything he does not think." -- Moliere, _The Misanthrope_
Re: Preference revelation
Ananda Gupta wrote: People say they want things. But when it comes time to bear the costs of having those things, they change their minds. That is, people's true preferences can be best discovered through observing their actions, not their words. Does anyone know of any formal economics literature having to do with the above proposition? Are there any articles considered classics (since that does seem to be a basic issue in economics)? The classic is probably Milton Friedman's "Methodology of Positive Economics" in *Essays in Positive Economics*. But note that few try to provide much empirical evidence for this, probably for the simple reason that what people say IS a rather good predictor of what they will do. -- Prof. Bryan Caplan Department of Economics George Mason University http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] "[T]he power of instruction is seldom of much efficacy, except in those happy dispositions where it is almost superfluous." -- Edward Gibbon, *The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire*
