Libertarian Paternalist!

2003-06-30 Thread Grey Thomas
Great news for me ... I'm a Libertarian Paternalist! I've long "what" I am, but just not the name. I ESPECIALLY like the need of humans to direct money flow into different accounts. I support many gov't individual accounts: a forced savings retirement account (SMART or whatever)--the second pilla

RE: Kolko 40 Years Later -- homelessness data?

2003-06-20 Thread Grey Thomas
> [EMAIL PROTECTED] writes: >> The main "good" it provides is a negative one, that of keeping >> homelessness and starvation to a low enough level to prevent >> political instability. [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: > This of course presumes that the welfare state reduces homelessness > and starva

RE: Wage-Price Controls Under Nixon -- pension reform

2003-06-17 Thread Grey Thomas
Yes, many feel that, since they contributed, they should get the benefits. This "lie" is pernicious. All politicians should be stating that the money paid in has already gone out -- and money received by retired folks now is money taxed by current workers. On the other hand, that's also not soo

RE: Wage-Price Controls Under Nixon

2003-06-17 Thread Grey Thomas
Sorry, David, you misunderstood me (or at least what I thought I meant). I first tried to point out that gov't money was one thing, not so much "socialism". But SS is something else -- I guess I should have said most folks would agree that "social security" is a form of socialism, but would add t

RE: Charity & certainty

2003-06-17 Thread Grey Thomas
> Jason DeBacker wrote: > >Why don't more people give more money to charity? > >If you asked someone if they would rather see $50 used to > >feed a child for a month or on another month cable TV (or > >whatever), I can't imagine someone not saying that the child > >should be fed. But almost no one

RE: Wage-Price Controls Under Nixon

2003-06-17 Thread Grey Thomas
> --- [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: > > Americans don't like to support something called "socialism," but > > they often support socialism by some other name. > > David > > All but a very few Americans, including economists, are in favor of > socialized money. That is the most pervasive socialist > p

RE: The Vote-Cost of Scandal

2003-06-03 Thread Grey Thomas
I don't believe Gary Hart was ruined by "scandal", per se. First, he supported a very unpopular, but I think kinda OK, 50 cent/gal tax on gasoline. When gas about $1/ gal (including taxes). This made the unsure very unsure. Only second did he publicly claim something like he would never cheat/ ha

RE: [Forum] Quoth who?

2003-05-30 Thread Grey Thomas
> > "Whenever a government creates a body to regulate a trade > for the benefit > > of the people, the trade gains control of the body for the > benefit of the > > trade at the expense of the people." > > Sorry for no help in the particular, but I remember a paper I wrote 20 years ago making th

A visiting Slovak in April May

2003-02-13 Thread Grey Thomas
Hi folks, hope some of you can help me. My friend and colleague, Jan Oravec from Slovakia, has received an Eisenhower Fellowship for a couple months, end of March to end of May. These fellowships allow bright young guys to network in the US. He's the President of the F.A. Hayek Foundation ("N

RE: Fw: why Iraq? here's one theory

2003-02-13 Thread Grey Thomas
Bill says the whole (too long) report is nonsense. I mostly agree, BUT with a caveat. If switching to petro Euros has no affect on foreign investment into the US, then I'd agree the report is useless. However, if the switch to Euros, or the war in Iraq, or a feeling that US assets are overpriced,

RE: Lott

2003-02-04 Thread Grey Thomas
Thanks for the link about Slate, but there is something fairly annoying. Lott claims: " >> In 98 percent of the cases, such polls show, people simply brandish the weapon to stop an attack.<<" Tim Noah, disputes this, yet also FAILS to say what the polls do show. "But polls by the Los Angeles Ti

RE: Questions about the stagflation episode... & Advice to journalists

2003-02-03 Thread Grey Thomas
First off, if "macro" is at all close to a "science", there should be near unanimity, among macro "experts", on exactly: why did the dot.com bubble keep growing, even after Greenspan's 1997 (?) irrational exuberance comments? Why did Argentina turn into such a mess? I don't think there is agreem

RE: European Soveriegnty

2003-01-21 Thread Grey Thomas
I think there is no pure economic explanation for most things European (or American, for that matter). There may also be a rather larger difference between the "average European" and the "average European leader" with respect to EU power vs national sovereignty. Certainly the UK is an active v

RE: Neutral taxation? with respect to what?

2003-01-17 Thread Grey Thomas
Fred, (& Susan) > even more than direct/indirect, you need to specify what is "neutral". You have not yet adequately done so. As I try to do this, I realize that neutral must apply to some other characteristic, like a car's "neutral color", or a car "in neutral" (gear). So, a policy change can

RE: Neutral taxation?/was Re: questions about dividend tax cut

2003-01-16 Thread Grey Thomas
Dan, even more than direct/indirect, you need to specify what is "neutral". Given democracy, one (adult) person, one vote, a strong case can be made for a "neutral" poll tax. Of course it is not "progressive" like most income taxes. Flat rate taxes, sales/VAT taxes, even land taxes, affect some

RE: going on about 'statists' -- what tax policy works best?

2003-01-15 Thread Grey Thomas
Title: RE: going on about 'statists' Joe, I agree with you, in essence, yet also support Fred's technicalities.   I'm not at all sure that the freedom of anarchy, perhaps with chaos/spontaneous order, is as bad as Corporate State (or even what we have now); and I'm pretty sure that Libertar

RE: U of Cal scientists question efficient market hypothesis

2002-12-06 Thread Grey Thomas
> > --- Alypius Skinner <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > A statistical physics model is predicting that the > US stock market > > > recovery suggested by recent rises will only last until > spring next > year, > > > before tumbling yet further. > > > > Why would this contradict efficient ma

RE: A Short Review of *Hard Heads, Soft Hearts*

2002-11-29 Thread Grey Thomas
Wei Dai wrote: > People don't mind competition if it's voluntary, but you can't opt out of > economic competition. I think it's a necessary evil, not something to be > desired for its own sake. Clearly some people do enjoy competition, and > they should certainly be able to participate, but what's

RE: Increase in the flow of communication since 1970

2002-11-13 Thread Grey Thomas
Great question. I'm sorry that I didn't immediately find the internet map showing the transfer of giga- and tera- bytes of data. I've seen such before, such info maps certainly exist. But it's not really clear that there has been really that significant an increase in "information"; certainly

RE: Self-assesment vs. Rationality

2002-11-11 Thread Grey Thomas
Good link, Eric. On the other hand, if you had just quoted this paragraph: The concept of rational expectations asserts that outcomes do not differ systematically (i.e., regularly or predictably) from what people expected them to be. The concept is motivated by the same thinking that led Abraham

RE: disintermediation

2002-11-05 Thread Grey Thomas
Fred wrote: > I agree, with an IPO, new money does enter the system. > After that, the shares are just exchanged. > > If a firm is profitable, then money enters the system by increasing > corporate or partnership assets, and if a firm has losses, > money leaves the > system, by decreasing assets

RE: disintermediation

2002-11-04 Thread Grey Thomas
> > have been solely as a result of money actually leaving the > system to go > into more secure things like money market instruments, > > Money does not leave the system. When one person sells > stocks, another > person is buying. But evidently much new money is going to > money market > fun

RE: Return to Education and IV

2002-10-28 Thread Grey Thomas
Data that includes going to college almost certainly includes SAT scores. (I also think they correlate strongly with IQ, but haven't looked for that data). I'm "sure" that the effect of more schooling is higher on those with higher SAT scores. In addition, I'd guess the data includes average, rath

The Greenspan bubble & Argentina

2002-10-17 Thread Grey Thomas
I have now read many instances of the Argentina problems being blamed on the fact that "tying the Argentine currency to the US dollar made that economy seriously uncompetitive". But I thought the measure of an uncompetitive currency was falling exports & rising imports. And that Argentina had had

RE: Charity and Races as Complements

2002-09-10 Thread Grey Thomas
> From: Robin Hanson [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]] > People can also run some other charity, like for a cancer, and solicit > donations to support that charity. The question is why these two > charities are so often combined. Many people would not give > money to someone soliciting for a race by i

RE: Charity and Races as Complements

2002-09-09 Thread Grey Thomas
> From: Robin Hanson [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]] > Fabio wrote: > >... The participants also get to socialize with other > healthy people with > >disposable income and who share similar values. So both > sides benefit. > > OK, this suggests that health, income, and values are > complements as f

RE: demand revelation and its discontents

2002-08-30 Thread Grey Thomas
> ref Tideman and Tullock, 1976, A New and Superior Process > ..., JPE 84 (Dec). > > T&T note that demand revelation is not perfect. For example > coalitions can > distort the results. The coalition benefit would vary with > the square of the > number of members. But majority voting also su

RE: how to eliminate unemployement; land tax user-fees

2002-08-16 Thread Grey Thomas
> Subject: RE: how to eliminate unemployement Well, the communists were most successful -- unemployment was illegal. This worked. It's not very free market, though. > > > I know Georgists support land taxes (or community collection > of rent, if you > prefer) to fund services. That is one

RE: Savings Rates -- asset/house prices -blogs

2002-08-12 Thread Grey Thomas
I recall buying a couple of houses in Silicon Valley: put all your money down, plus whatever you could borrow from relatives;add your income to see how much you could afford to pay per month and get an 80% mortgage based on that; with the seller accepting a second as the difference from your d

RE: efficient markets ...

2002-08-09 Thread Grey Thomas
The late Al Frank had a newsletter, the Prudent Speculator, which was ranked very highly on return for 10 & 20 year periods (some 23% annual avg.) He's a long term investor (avg 6.5 years), fundamental value. NOT day trading! Here's a bit from an interview with its current author: You recommend

RE: Public Opinion On Spending -- order of magnitude

2002-08-01 Thread Grey Thomas
Usually "one order of magnitude more" is about 10 times more. So, increasing from a range around 8 to around 80 is an increase in an order of magnitude. It is more debatable, but not uncommon, for each digit to be its own order of magnitude: 1-9 / 10-99 / 100-999. Unfortunately, my "whatis" defi

Another Armchair Sighting -- Independent Institute

2002-07-30 Thread Grey Thomas
I repeat below the top part of the blurb, because I think it's almost great -- I wish that the "most were dying" included a range of numbers, 50-80% for instance, to go along with the 90% after. I mention this because, as part of the excellent idea that incentives matter, even with incentives yo

RE: Glum losers auction -- election reform we'll never see

2002-07-29 Thread Grey Thomas
Proposal: US individuals & corporations can donate to candidates, BUT only get a deduction (or 50% tax credit) if their candidate does NOT win. Those who donate to the winner get ... satisfaction. I realize this is unrealistic, but it seems very attractive. Tom Grey > -Original Message-

RE: from whence, belief? Better society comparisons

2002-07-19 Thread Grey Thomas
> From: Alex Tabarrok [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]] > Tom Grey wrote > > Further, I derive support for this from limited thought experiments: > > Society A: more Atheist, > > Society B: more Bible Believing. > > > > In which society do I expect more fraud? more cheating spouses & > > promiscuity? mo

RE: Republican Reversal -- from whence, belief?

2002-07-18 Thread Grey Thomas
> >>Irrespective of the "objective" truth of the Bible, the > superiority of a > >>"Bible believing society" is a position I strongly believe, > >> > > Doesn't your position commit you to believing that the people in our > society who do not believe in the Bible > are in fact mostly selfish me

RE: Republican Reversal -- from whence, belief?

2002-07-18 Thread Grey Thomas
> -Original Message- > From: Alex Tabarrok [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]] > > If information doesn't change people's minds - what does? Or, at > least, what causes people to have the beliefs that they have? This is > where Bryan's important work comes in. Understanding these sorts o

some history! RE: economic history question

2002-04-11 Thread Grey Thomas
A friend told me about her grandfather, on a striking picket line at Ford Motor Co. in freezing winter, during the Depression. The poor workers, peacefully striking on government streets, were sprayed with water by the Detroit fire department, who was there with the police. The water rapidly coo

RE: Ph.D. proliferation

2002-04-08 Thread Grey Thomas
Bryan, for some reason some recent posts of mine to this list have not been posted -- am I off the list for some reason? (There was a time when my company email was down for a week, it might have bounced too much mail or something). Tom Grey Here's a very relevant John Adams quote: I must

RE: Economics of rank vs. Economics of the most money

2002-02-21 Thread Grey Thomas
The "American Dream" vs. the "Russian Dream" One American farmer has a neighbor that just got a prize cow. A Russian farmer similarly has a neighbor with a prize cow. The American farmer's dream: to have a better cow than the neighbor. The Russian farmer's dream: that the neighbor's cow dies. A

RE: monopoly justice vs free market justice (A.S.U.; R.N., RIP)

2002-02-05 Thread Grey Thomas
Robert Nozik, author of the fine Anarchy, State, and Utopia, seems to end up with a minimal "state" primarily enforcing contracts and protecting property. I was sad to read that he recently joined Hayek & Keynes "in the long run", i.e. dead. (I was looking for info on "life expectancy at age 50,"

RE: Credit scoring and insurance premiums

2002-01-24 Thread Grey Thomas
(Still not finished with year end work at work ...) Recently finished Prof. Caplan's fine "Stigler-Becker vs Myers-Briggs" paper. I believe strongly in MBTI (MB Type Indicator) (I'm an NTP, E/I). I like the Five Factor Model addition, but not name, of "Neurotic", and don't like the names of the o

RE: Armchair attachments & Austrian school

2001-10-31 Thread Grey Thomas
OK, I didn't open it -- so what does it say? I went to the web site referenced, but didn't see an obvious path. I like the idea of having more files on a server; maybe Professor Bryan Caplan's Armchair "File Cabinet?" I guess I missed the fireworks between the "Austrian Economists" and Bryan, wh

RE: Signaling

2001-10-16 Thread Grey Thomas
In an era of paper-covered hardbacks and paperback books, there is also the competitive question: What else if not a blurb? Art? White/colored paper? A note from the Author (eg. This paperback edition, and no other, has been authorized ... JRR Tolkien)? In Slovakia (like the Czech Republic), we ha

RE: Disaster Raises Happiness, Trust

2001-10-10 Thread Grey Thomas
The "Fight or Flight" adrenaline effect is yet another (possibly clever?) explanatory note; the specific adversity/disaster is important. I don't believe in any general "happiness while hungry" or "happiness while in pain". But when the crummy circumstance was caused by a more specific threat, th

RE: Disaster Raises Happiness, Trust

2001-10-04 Thread Grey Thomas
I think the popularity of "Nightmare on Elm Street", etc., including with many young women, is fairly relevant, and supportive of "stress arousal". I'd suspect a strong second order effect in women: the men are "more than usually" aroused; which leads to "more than usual" arousal in the women

RE: Disaster Raises Happiness, Trust -- NOT envy

2001-10-02 Thread Grey Thomas
I think a missing issue is the emptiness of consumeristic materialism. (Really!) I know, I know -- work, study, get rich (go Tree!). Many workers under communism, in trying to survive as well as they could, focused a lot of energy on their own families; eg fathers coming home at 4 pm to pick up t

RE: Airlines/ Moral Hazard

2001-09-27 Thread Grey Thomas
On a practical matter, when such tragic disasters strike, the federal government *wants* to get involved; at least in part to show how important it is to keep them around. Each and every bailout (Long Term Capital Finance?) increases the moral hazard. I think Chapter 11 should be enough, but pol

RE: Handicapping the 2001 Noble Prize in Economics

2001-09-26 Thread Grey Thomas
-Original Message- From: Technotranscendence [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]] Sent: Saturday, September 22, 2001 4:47 PM To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: Re: Handicapping the 2001 Noble Prize in Economics On Friday, September 21, 2001 9:27 PM fabio guillermo rojas [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: > O

RE: Handicapping the 2001 Noble Prize in Economics

2001-09-26 Thread Grey Thomas
-Original Message- From: Technotranscendence [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]] Sent: Saturday, September 22, 2001 4:47 PM To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: Re: Handicapping the 2001 Noble Prize in Economics ... Of course, there's no need to wait for the Nobel people to do that. You can always ju

RE: Handicapping the 2001 Noble Prize in Economics

2001-09-21 Thread Grey Thomas
Not obscure, but different: Hernando de Soto ("The Other Path", "The Mystery of Capitalism") I've been looking up the ones named, plus others. This is fun. Also, thanks to Bill for "principal agent" theory. Tom Grey -Original Message- From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]]

Micro Incentives -- real case question

2001-09-18 Thread Grey Thomas
Dear Armchairists (?), My M&A advisory company has a few sector teams (in Vienna & London). We also have a network of local offices in all the CEE capital cities. On a big "Bank" deal, for instance, there will be a local team element, and a London sector team element. When we get the mandate, it'

RE: [Fwd: Krugman should read Bastiat]

2001-09-17 Thread Grey Thomas
Thanks for the article Bryan. I had also found the NY Times link by looking for "Paul Krugman" economics in www.google.com, the best internet search engine (for me, so far). The Armchair critics of Krugman have not actually stated enough for an armchair "newbie" to fully agree or not with the