Re: Extremists due to strong priors?

2000-07-20 Thread Robin Hanson

Fred Foldvary wrote:
  It seems you posit that people who reason will be inflexible, and those
  who don't will be flexible and go with the crowd, which won't happen to
  be where reason would lead.  But under this theory, how do you explain that
  the people on the *other* side from you of the crowd are also inflexible?

The concept of anchoring may explain such inflexibility An idea which is
not grounded in fact but sounds plausible can easily get anchored.  But I
don't see why this would be more prevalent among those we think of as
extreme.  The difference seems to be that for meainstream ideas ...
anchoring does not seem to be inflexible ... while for non-mainstream views
... their refusal to budge is more apparant and shocking.  ... the movement
would not seem like much when viewed from the center.

I don't think you're taking the two data sources cited seriously.  The
observe a correlation between extremism and apparently objective measures of
inflexibility.  So either you have to say the data doesn't measure what it
seems, or accept the data and try to explain it.



Robin Hanson  [EMAIL PROTECTED]  http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030
703-993-2326  FAX: 703-993-2323



Re: Extremists due to strong priors?

2000-07-20 Thread William Sullivan

At 02:46 PM 7/20/00 -0400, Robin Hanson wrote:
Another problem is that people have to be unaware of other people's
positions,
otherwise they could update on that and then should all end up at the same
place.

I'm not clear why they'd have to be ignorant of other people's positions.
It seems that they could be ignorant of the evidence that has swayed other
people or the methodology other people use in sifting through evidence. So,
with limited information and limited information using tools, they could be
quite aware of other people's conclusions while simply thinking that other
people are wrong.

Unless, by "position" you mean the evidence and methodology as well as the
actual conclusions. If that's the case, I agree with you.

William Sullivan






Re: Extremists due to strong priors? (Out of Country)

2000-07-20 Thread Shireen Pasha

I will be out of the country between July 21st and August 20th.  

Shireen Pasha