Re: Senators Denounce Policy Analysis Markets

I think you could get into a whole lot of trouble since for any event you predict that happens, if the common opinion is that you have somehow encouraged it, the burden of proof on the civil level will effectively be on you to show that you haven't, which of course will likely be impossible. Also,

Re: Senators Denounce Policy Analysis Markets

> Seriously - how hard is it to set up such a market? If indeed it can lead > to better prediction of violent events, and if it is something that is > relatively easy to set up, then why not? Could this be shut down by the > Feds? Under what justifications? Games, in and of themselves, are not i

Re: Senators Denounce Policy Analysis Markets

> I help run a large non-profit colocation and hosting center for various > groups of which an implementation of this would fit perfectly with our > mission. > > If people are interested in trying this in a fully transparent method I am > willing to provide our resources and my time to make it ha

Re: Senators Denounce Policy Analysis Markets

> > Could this not be an opportunity? Maybe a private sponsor could set up the > market? Fabio Fabio, While I have privately told Robin that I do not support the implementation of the Ideas Futures by the Pentagon, I do believe the concept of Ideas Futures certainly has potential benefits as we

Re: Senators Denounce Policy Analysis Markets

[EMAIL PROTECTED] (fabio guillermo rojas) writes: > >Could this not be an opportunity? Maybe a private sponsor could set up the >market? Fabio There are nontrivial regulatory costs to doing it privately in the U.S., which probably became a good deal more serious now that politicians are scared

Re: Senators Denounce Policy Analysis Markets

Could this not be an opportunity? Maybe a private sponsor could set up the market? Fabio On Tue, 29 Jul 2003, Robin Hanson wrote: > That sure looks like the likely outcome. We never really got a chance to > correct misconceptions about the project. (For example, it was never > intended to f

Re: Senators Denounce Policy Analysis Markets

In a message dated 7/29/03 9:50:07 PM, [EMAIL PROTECTED] writes: >That sure looks like the likely outcome. We never really got a chance >to >correct misconceptions about the project. (For example, it was never >intended to forecast specific terrorist attacks, but only overall >trends.) They

Re: Senators Denounce Policy Analysis Markets

That sure looks like the likely outcome. We never really got a chance to correct misconceptions about the project. (For example, it was never intended to forecast specific terrorist attacks, but only overall trends.) They didn't want to hear. At 01:10 PM 7/29/2003 -0400, [EMAIL PROTECTED]: M

Re: Senators Denounce Policy Analysis Markets

On 2003-07-28, Robin Hanson uttered: >FYI, our DARPA project (www.policyanalysismarket.com) has just been >denounced by two senators: >http://wyden.senate.gov/media/2003/07282003_terrormarket.html It's still a nice plan. Much like Brunner's delphi pools in Shockwave Rider. (BTW, if anybody ever t

Re: Senators Denounce Policy Analysis Markets

More likely than not they'll say nothing and the story will quietly go away... conveniently relieving people like reporters and senators from the need to admit they spoke out about something they didn't have much, if any, comprehension of. > > All of the criticism seems based on the betting on

Re: Senators Denounce Policy Analysis Markets

From: "Christopher Rasch" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>To: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>Sent: Tuesday, July 29, 2003 8:54 PMSubject: Re: Senators Denounce Policy Analysis Markets> Glenn Reynolds (Instapundit) blogged about the DARPA project controversy:> > THE PENTAGON WANTS TO USE A F

Re: Senators Denounce Policy Analysis Markets

On Tue, 29 Jul 2003, Jeffrey Rous wrote: > I seem to remember looking at the Iowa Electronic Market right before > the 2000 election and noticing that it had Gore winning the > winner-take-all and Bush getting a higher percentage of the vote. And > I remember thinking that this was just an indic

Re: Senators Denounce Policy Analysis Markets

I seem to remember looking at the Iowa Electronic Market right before the 2000 election and noticing that it had Gore winning the winner-take-all and Bush getting a higher percentage of the vote. And I remember thinking that this was just an indication of how close the race really was. Am I re

Re: Senators Denounce Policy Analysis Markets

All of the criticism seems based on the betting on events, not on the use of conditional markets for developing policy. Wonder what they'll say when they figure that bit out On Mon, 28 Jul 2003, Robin Hanson wrote: > FYI, our DARPA project (www.policyanalysismarket.com) has just been denoun

Re: Senators Denounce Policy Analysis Markets

Glenn Reynolds (Instapundit) blogged about the DARPA project controversy: THE PENTAGON WANTS TO USE A FUTURES MARKET to predict terror attacks. Although this is getting a lot of criticism (mostly from members of Congress who, I suspect, could

RE: Senators Denounce Policy Analysis Markets

Original Message- > From: Robin Hanson [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] > Sent: Monday, July 28, 2003 8:56 PM > To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]; [EMAIL PROTECTED] > Subject: Senators Denounce Policy Analysis Markets > > > FYI, our DARPA project (www.policyanalysismarket.com) has > ju

Re: Senators Denounce Policy Analysis Markets

In a message dated 7/29/03 4:05:03 AM, [EMAIL PROTECTED] writes: >The Pentagon office that proposed spying electronically on Americans to >monitor potential terrorists has a new experiment. This is typical of the statist-liberal news media--starting a "news" article with an ad homenim attack.

Re: Senators Denounce Policy Analysis Markets

The NYT article on this Pentagon Prepares a Futures Market on Terror Attacks By CARL HULSE ASHINGTON, July 28 — The Pentagon office that proposed spying electronically on Americans to monitor potential terrorists has a new experiment. It is an online futures trading market, disclosed tod

Re: Senators Denounce Policy Analysis Markets

I've been raring to go with the pam markets for a while now -- condolences. Many people here are probably aware of it, but you can also check out (and participate in!) the Iowa Electronic Markets online at the University of Iowa, http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/ which have a reasonable track recor

RE: Senators Denounce Policy Analysis Markets

Hanson Sent: Monday, July 28, 2003 2:56 PM To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]; [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: Senators Denounce Policy Analysis Markets FYI, our DARPA project (www.policyanalysismarket.com) has just been denounced by two senators: http://wyden.senate.gov/media/2003/07282003_terrormarket.html

Senators Denounce Policy Analysis Markets

FYI, our DARPA project (www.policyanalysismarket.com) has just been denounced by two senators: http://wyden.senate.gov/media/2003/07282003_terrormarket.html Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu Assistant Professor of Economics, George Mason University MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax