Re: MIT Sexism statistical bunk

2001-02-09 Thread Gene Gallagher
The link to the datafiles appears to be case sensitive, so http://www.es.umb.edu/edg/ECOS611/MIT-IWF.zip should be: http://www.es.umb.edu/edg/ECOS611/mit-iwf.zip Gene Gallagher Sent via Deja.com http://www.deja.com

Re: Communicating stat results that are large or small numbers to lay audience

2001-01-26 Thread Gene Gallagher
In article [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED] (Arthur J Kendall) wrote: We are currently looking at how quantitative risk assessment is used. = Doses can be in micrograms, morbidity can be in rates per hundred thousand = exposed, mortality in 10 million exposed, and so forth. In this

Re: change scores

2001-01-25 Thread Gene Gallagher
In article 94o81d$9o4$[EMAIL PROTECTED], Elliot Cramer [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Dale Berger [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: : Dear Colleagues, : A student is evaluating a summer program for junior high students. One of : the goals was to raise 'self esteem.' Measures were taken before the

Re: 280 or not

2001-01-24 Thread Gene Gallagher
This post is to clean up a few dangling threads and to correct an error in my previous post. In response to Rich, I pointed out yet another potential problem in the MCAS. School effectiveness is being based on the mean of scaled MCAS scores, which range from 200 to 280. Rich pointed out that

Re: 280 or not

2001-01-24 Thread Gene Gallagher
In article [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED] (Robert J. MacG. Dawson) wrote: Snip Interesting. If it's 8.4 degrees Fahrenheit at which he switches, no conclusion could be drawn for *any* sample size because the recorded value would not be a monotonic function of actual temperature.

Re: 280 or not

2001-01-23 Thread Gene Gallagher
In article [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Snip - I don't know what the authors say, but (on their behalf) I suggest that maybe the funny range was selected in order to avoid ignorant comparisons that public tests are prone to. That is, from these scores, you won't be tempted

Re: 280 or not

2001-01-23 Thread Gene Gallagher
In article [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Snip - I don't know what the authors say, but (on their behalf) I suggest that maybe the funny range was selected in order to avoid ignorant comparisons that public tests are prone to. That is, from these scores, you won't be tempted

Re: A much more basic MCAS fallacy?

2001-01-22 Thread Gene Gallagher
In article [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED] (Robert J. MacG. Dawson) wrote: "Daniel P. B. Smith" wrote: Can anybody possibly believe that a difference of one point in 245.3 can possibly be significant? We're talking about schools with a less than a maybe sixty fourth-graders in

Re: MA MCAS statistical fallacy

2001-01-12 Thread Gene Gallagher
In article [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED] (Robert J. MacG. Dawson) wrote: Snip Wait one... Regression to the mean occurs because of the _random_ component in the first measurement. Being in an urban center is not part of the random component - those schools' grades didn't

Re: MA MCAS statistical fallacy

2001-01-12 Thread Gene Gallagher
In article [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED] (Robert J. MacG. Dawson) wrote: The school results are presented in a very odd fashion, making it difficult to assess the patterns. http://www.doe.mass.edu/ata/ratings00/SPRPDistribTables.html They are that. Let's try. These data

MA MCAS statistical fallacy

2001-01-10 Thread Gene Gallagher
The Massachusetts Dept. of Education committed what appears to be a howling statistical blunder yesterday. It would be funny if not for the millions of dollars, thousands of hours of work, and thousands of students' lives that could be affected. Massachusetts has implemented a state-wide

RE: fla election stats

2001-01-05 Thread Gene Gallagher
In article E7AC96207335D411B1E7009027FC2849F87098@EXCHANGE2, [EMAIL PROTECTED] (Simon, Steve, PhD) wrote: Snip [A list of statistical issues raised by the Fl election] If there were other important statistical issues raised by this election, let me know so I can add to this list. Steve

Re: The Margin-of-Error Fallacy

2000-12-26 Thread Gene Gallagher
Rich Ulrich wrote: I think it would be unwise to use random sampling theory, with or without the finite population correction, to infer what the percentage of Bush and Gore votes would be among the non-machine counted votes. There were several analyses published in the press about

Re: The Margin-of-Error Fallacy

2000-12-23 Thread Gene Gallagher
I think it would be unwise to use random sampling theory, with or without the finite population correction, to infer what the percentage of Bush and Gore votes would be among the non-machine counted votes. There were several analyses published in the press about who would have won a recount,

Re: Legal statistical flimflam

2000-12-05 Thread Gene Gallagher
In article [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Snip I'd disagree with the "some must get counted as votes" point. Some may, but it would depend on people's capacity to discriminate between them. If d' is good then few votes should be missassigned. Thom There is a very interesting

Re: Legal statistical flimflam

2000-12-03 Thread Gene Gallagher
In article [EMAIL PROTECTED], Bob Wheeler [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Hasty writing -- I was responding to the cited post. More than two questions were considered by Hengartner -- he had charts indicating the possible effects of recounting Dade County were it to behave as did the other

Re: Legal statistical flimflam

2000-12-03 Thread Gene Gallagher
If approximately 2/3 of the tallied votes were for Gore, by what leap of logic do you conclude that 1/2 of the untallied votes would have been for Bush? The GOP lawyers in their cross of the voting expert argued that people may have dimpled their chads by handling the ballots, e.g., running

Re: Florida votes and statistical errors

2000-12-01 Thread Gene Gallagher
In article [EMAIL PROTECTED], Jerry Dallal [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: I disagree with those who would use a binomial model for the overall vote totals to describe the uncertainty in the Florida vote count. (This constitutes the Type III error discussed in another thread--the right answer

Florida votes and statistical errors

2000-11-30 Thread Gene Gallagher
There seems to be some misunderstanding in the press about a fundamental difference between a sample of a larger population and a complete census. J. A. Paulos in his NY Times article ‘We're Measuring Bacteria With a Yardstick' http://www.nytimes.com/2000/11/22/opinion/22PAUL.html stated: "Not

Error in polls, Part III

2000-11-06 Thread Gene Gallagher
The latest polls are out. The New York Times gets an A for describing the precision and accuracy of their poll. Gallup gets a C- or D in my book. The New York Times today: http://www.nytimes.com/2000/11/06/politics/06METH.html In theory, in 19 cases out of 20 the results based on such

Re: Error in polls, Part 2

2000-11-03 Thread Gene Gallagher
In article [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Snip "For results based on the total sample of likely voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points." Those guys are supposed to be professionals, and they should have been

Re: ANOVA with dichotomous dependent variable

2000-11-03 Thread Gene Gallagher
In article [EMAIL PROTECTED], Gerhard Luecke [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Can anyone name some references where the problem of using a DICHOTOMOUS variable as a DEPENDENT variable in an ANOVA is discussed? Many thanks in advance, Gerhard Luecke Check out Ramsey Schaefer's "The Statistical

Re: Error in polls, Part 2

2000-11-02 Thread Gene Gallagher
A URL for the 1 Nov Gallup poll: http://www.gallup.com/Poll/releases/pr001101c.asp This poll has Bush over Gore 48% to 43% with margin of error of 2%. Wolfgang's post and the thread below indicates that this +/- 2% is the 95% CI, which makes sense given the sample size. With the 2% 95% CI, we

Re: questions on hypothesis

2000-10-13 Thread Gene Gallagher
As to Observational studies -- http://www.cnr.colostate.edu/~anderson/thompson1.html This is a short article and long bibliography. The title is direct: "326 Articles/Books Questioning the Indiscriminate Use of Statistical Hypothesis Tests in Observational Studies" (Compiled by William

Re: Interpretation of correspondence analysis plot

2000-09-05 Thread Gene Gallagher
You are correct that the Euclidean distance between sample and species points is NOT what you need to look at. For interpretations of CA plots: Michael Greenacre. 1984 Theory and applications of correspondence analysis. Academic Press Greenacre, M. and T. Hastie. 1987. The geometric

Re: pooling vs. averaging in ecological data

2000-07-28 Thread Gene Gallagher
In article [EMAIL PROTECTED], jersey [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Background: I am an ecologist working with intertidal community structure data. My data is characterised by high non-normality and lack of equal variance between samples. Be careful with this. Non-normal abundances distributions

Re: differences between groups/treatments ?

2000-06-22 Thread Gene Gallagher
Rich Ulrich wrote: These are not quite equivalent options since the first one really stinks -- If you are considering drawing conclusions about causation, you need *random assignment* and the two Groups of performance are the furthest thing from random. Let's see: the simple notion of

Re: Repeated Measures ANOVA

2000-06-13 Thread Gene Gallagher
In article [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED] (Donald Burrill) wrote: Sounds to me as though you have in fact 5 within-subject variables: the four you list plus 5) Replications (with 10 levels) Of course, this is a random factor, whereas the other four are presumably fixed factors, but

Re: LISREL and Confirmatory FA

2000-05-22 Thread Gene Gallagher
Try the free student version of AMOS for structural equation modeling http://www.smallwaters.com/amos/student.html AMOS does factor analysis, path analysis and includes online documentation. In article 8fjhn0$8rd$[EMAIL PROTECTED], "Buoy" [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Hello to all I'm a

Re: misusing stats: examples

2000-05-10 Thread Gene Gallagher
In article [EMAIL PROTECTED], Uplandcrow wrote: I teach research methods for social science at a small liberal arts college. The level of math in the class is low, I use Richard Black's "Doing Quantitative Research in the Soc. Sci." and excerpts from Gujarati's "Basic Econometrics." SNIP I

Re: Texts: Factor Analysis

2000-04-05 Thread Gene Gallagher
For the natural sciences, try Reyment Joreskog Applied Factor analysis for the natural sciences, Cambridge Univ Press. In article [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: What are your favorite book(s) on factor analysis? What do you think of R.