Re: [FRIAM] Bayes Rules and Base Rates Count

Yes, while the clip was a nice explanation about Bayesian updating, the narrator’s statement that we need to make assumptions about prevalence seem to me like they send the viewer on a wrong turn. It’s just an affine transform. If you know the sensitivity and the selectivity of your test (whic

Re: [FRIAM] At the limits of thought

Russell, I have both research gate and Academia. Academia can't tell me from anybody that has the name nicholas or thompson or ns thompson or... nick thompson or and, believe you me, there are a lot of us. Research Gate doesn't make that sort of mistake near as often. Academia is a bit bet

Re: [FRIAM] At the limits of thought

On Mon, Apr 27, 2020 at 05:04:52PM -0600, Frank Wimberly wrote: > Academia does something like that.  "You have [so many] mentions.  To see your > mentions come a full member" > i.e. send money.  I think mentions is slightly more general than citations.  > They might mention your name without citin

Re: [FRIAM] Bayes Rules and Base Rates Count

You indeed are indeed correct, Tom. That is the fundamental question for Bayesian applications. For a time it was considered to be an impossible hurdle that blocked Bayesian statistical analysis. Today there are a variety of conceptualizations that have changed that view, and so Bayes Rules! Georg

Re: [FRIAM] Bayes Rules and Base Rates Count

Good explanation. But it always comes back to the basic question: What are the methods and data informing our assumptions about prevalence, at this moment, in a population? Or am I wrong? Tom Tom Johnson - t...@jtjohnson.com Institute for Analytic Jo

Re: [FRIAM] Warring Darwinians for Glen, Steve

Nick - > Nice thought, but I would have to ride on the bumper.  > >   > > What a time! > FWIW... you have referenced your own choice of clique-formation as a "pod" which I believe exclusively? describes the second level of whale (at least Orca) social organization.   (matriline -> pod -> clan ->

[FRIAM] FRIAM Regular Session 9 a

I've shared an item with you: FRIAM Regular Session 9 a https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Cgu8mvXeGOCyVG2fRjwY646nv1D7n4Zl6hFhWkWkXf0/edit?usp=sharing&ts=5eab5006 It's not an attachment -- it's stored online. To open this item, just click the link above. See ya on the morrow. .-. .- -. -..

Re: [FRIAM] Warring Darwinians for Glen, Steve

> Acceleration can be a changing, non-constant function of time.  The > change is necessarily continuous.  Want to go for a ride? Quick, before anyone else inserts the bad pun...   "what a jerk!" .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... . ... FRIAM Appli

Re: [FRIAM] Warring Darwinians for Glen, Steve

Nice thought, but I would have to ride on the bumper. What a time! N Nicholas Thompson Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University thompnicks...@gmail.com https://wordpress.clarku.edu/

Re: [FRIAM] Warring Darwinians for Glen, Steve

Acceleration can be a changing, non-constant function of time. The change is necessarily continuous. Want to go for a ride? On Thu, Apr 30, 2020 at 3:06 PM wrote: > Glen, and all, > > > > This is very good, so good that I am in danger of getting lost in thought > and never giving it any reply.

Re: [FRIAM] Warring Darwinians for Glen, Steve

Glen, and all, This is very good, so good that I am in danger of getting lost in thought and never giving it any reply. So let me attempt a short reply. Following Holt, I am going to take the metaphor (if you will) of point of view. Let's say we are all blindfolded philosophers pa

Re: [FRIAM] Warring Darwinians for Glen, Steve

On 4/30/20 1:41 PM, Prof David West wrote: > > Steve likes to sign off with "mumble" I'll stop with > > babble Touche'...     bumble .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT

Re: [FRIAM] Warring Darwinians for Glen, Steve

Two contributions, hopefully, to this conversation — first to something Nick said, then Glen. Nick said: "It was me that floated the thought that “all thinking is metaphorical”. (I was trying to draw Dave West in on my side of the argument, at the time.)" I remember the conversation — at St. Jo

Re: [FRIAM] narcissism

That's a fantastic question! I can't answer. But I'll definitely start injecting that question into what I read. I have run across those communities that talk about techniques for increasing one's charisma, mostly in the context of trying to understand the alt-right, involuntary celibates, pick-

Re: [FRIAM] Warring Darwinians for Glen, Steve

OK. Here's the setup: Nick says 1: Metaphorical thinker maps their experience onto another's experience, modeling that other's experience with their own. Nick says 2: I don't understand the hard problem of consciousness. Glen says: Expressions 1 and 2 are contradictory. I suppose it's on me to