Michael:
> I am sorry. I thought it was because of our
> revolutionary work on pen-l.
No Michael!
It was because of the revolutionary work of Bush and
the neocons, not that the democrats did and will do
any better.
Here is what Michael Ignatieff says in the below New
York Times Magazine articl
40,000 protest Bush in Turkey
Sunday, June 27, 2004
Posted: 12:42 PM EDT (1642 GMT)
ISTANBUL, Turkey (AP) -- Tens of thousands of Turks
chanting anti-Bush slogans demonstrated against the
president's visit to their country on Sunday and a
NATO summit.
Bush is unpopular in Turkey, where the overw
Clash ahead of Bush visit to Turkey
Saturday, June 26, 2004 Posted: 9:41 PM EDT (0141 GMT)
ANKARA, Turkey (AP) -- Turkish police fired tear gas as more than 100
left-wing demonstrators hurled rocks and used sticks to try and break down a
police barricade during a protest Saturday ahead of U.S. Pr
Sun, June 27, 2004
Beheadings vowed
Iraq terrorists kidnap Turks
By AP
BAGHDAD -- Militants loyal to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi said yesterday they have
kidnapped three Turkish workers and threatened to behead them in 72 hours,
heightening tension as President George W. Bush visited Turkey. In new
viol
> I'd like one. If you don't like me,
> I'll pay the postage myself.
>
> mbs
Of course, I like you. There are not many I don't like but if I give this
away things may get out of control:
20,000,000 Liras is roughly $13.5 US in these days.
But I will bring you one from my trip to Turkey. I am le
Michael:
> David is right here. Banter is fine when both parties
> are on the same page, but once tempers get a little warm,
> its best to lay off.
What is wrong with letting a person know that you do not like him Michael?
Do we have to like everybody?
Does everybody have to like each of us?
I
Sartesian:
> Hey, didn't you read what Michael said about nastiness?
It is you who is nasty, not I. I am just responding in kind.
> If I weren't such a thick-skinned, jolly, all around sweet
> guy I might be tempted to answer in kind.
What a coincidence that we used the same phrase. I must
> c'mon! Diversification is diversification, not "diversification
> only in dollar assets." Strictly speaking, diversification includes
> holding gold and canned food, along with euros and rupiahs.
Well!
Nice to see that we agree. Now let us give some Marxist financial advice
based on this de
Jim:
> The guidance I gave, as Michael Perelman noted, was
> simply common sense, not something from Marx (though
> I doubt Marx would reject the advice).
Put differently, it was simply common nonsense. If Roach is right and "the
equity bubble of the late 1990s was a transforming event in many
Sartesian:
> The query about Marxist financial advice devolved,
> or evolved, into a discussion of "efficient
> markets," as if somehow markets were an abstraction
> from the social relations that drive "free exchange;"
I don't think anyone engaged in this discussion claims or thinks that
markets
> But is that because market prices aren't reflecting
> buying and selling, or because the buyers and sellers
> are irrational? Like I said, market prices can be
> efficiently reflecting nonsense.
>
> Doug
The issue is not whether market prices reflect buying and selling. The issue
is whether t
Jim and Doug:
>> I'd better start sinning now, so I won't end up in
>> the same place as Mark.
>
> I'm already doomed, since I cheered on the slaughter
> of Afghan babies.
>
> Doug
My friends,
What is wrong with ending up in the same place with Mark? Whether you like
it or not, this is what is
Daniel:
> Shurely market prices have to react to buying and
> selling, or they wouldn't be market prices.
Reacting to buying and selling is one thing, reacting to buying and selling
_instantly_ is another. Of course market prices react to buying and selling.
But not necessarily instantly. If yo
Doug:
> Market prices are "efficient" in that they instantly
> react to buying and selling,
Rubbish! You know, my new PhD is in this, right?
Sabri
Jim:
> diversify, diversify, diversify. hold for long-term, not short.
> Hold more bonds (and fewer stocks) when old; reverse that when
> young.
This is what you are taught at ivy league business school finance classes if
they still adhere to the "efficient market hypothesis" of course.
I wo
> I of course reserve the right to revise and adjust anything I write
> and admit faulty thinking.
>
> Peace
>
> Melvin P.
How about Mark?
Can he do that?
Sabri
Louis:
> I'd like to think that he is sitting up on some cloud
> somewhere getting a chuckle over how he still generates
> such controversy.
I am sure of that! That was another reason why I loved him so much!
Sabri
Jim:
> this business about Mark Jones being "wrong" or "right"
> isn't about MJ at all.
My point, precisely! All I suggest is picking up another symbol, out of my
respect to his "virtual" memory.
Best,
Sabri
Sartesian:
> Jones claimed he did know how and when the oil would run out.
This is correct!
People should not put the word in Mark's mouth when he has no means to argue
for himself.
Why cannot people speak for themselves, like Mark was able to do when he was
with us?
Best,
Sabri
soula avramidis:
> Mark could not have been wrong.
Whether Mark was wrong or right is debatable.
Yet, Mark can neither be right or wrong today.
He is gone for long!
Being an unfaithful thermodynamist by trait, I always had issues with his
thermodynamics and nor had I any interest in this Hup
And this is what Kenneth Rogoff says.
Maybe we should invite him to PEN-L?
Sabri
++
The hidden threat of extreme events
By SAMUEL BRITTAN
Financial Times (London, England)
June 18, 2004 Friday
We are now in one of those phases where highly favourable economic data
clash with an a
By the looks of it, Roach is on our side too but of course there is nothing
new about this.
Apparently, we are all waiting for Godot but I am sure of that he will show
up one day.
If only I knew when and whether I would be around to meet him.
Sabri
+
Heading for the Exits
Stephen
Doug:
> H, I think it's worth testing the hypothesis that when
> PEN-L gets a thread going on economic vulnerability, the
> economy is about to accelerate. This is a good real-time
> test.
Well! It is not just PEN-L. Bill Gross thinks so too.
Sabri
Fund chief issues global warn
Of all the answers to my question:
> What does _objective_ political economy mean?
I liked Michael's the best:
> Something different from the objectionable political economy
> currently in vogue.
Consequently, I will rephrase it as:
>>> Objective political economy is that political economy whi
Calvin Ostrum:
> Why not just produce a wikipedia of objective political economy?
What does _objective_ political economy mean?
Best,
Sabri
Nomi:
> First, I must say I'm still blushing over Yoshie's generous
> compliments.
No need to blush. After Yoshie's post and Ahmet's correction, I checked
Doug's website and agreed with Yoshie. By the way, until I checked Doug's
site, I had not known that you are a female. Nomi is just a genderl
Ahmet:
> I think the answer is buried in the biographical info
> about the author. Those of us who are old enough heard and
> lived through this argument in various ways in Turkey, 1960,
> 1971, and 1980!
Well!
In 1960, I was not born yet. I was born two years later. But, I was born on
May 26th
> US must act to curb Chávez's excesses
> By Joseph Nunez
> Published: May 27 2004 21:26 | Last Updated: May 27 2004 21:26
>
> Venezuela is proof that free elections do not guarantee
> political legitimacy or responsible governance.
I particularly liked this part.
Political legitimacy and
What does our Nomi say about this?
Best,
Sabri
+++
Congress is right to challenge options expensing
By JAMES GLASSMAN
Financial Times / May 27, 2004 Friday
A battle has erupted between the US House of Representatives and the Senate
over an accounting rule that could profoundly affe
Michael L.,
This is particularly for you.
Best,
Sabri
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c
=StoryFT&cid=1084907876511&p=1012571727285
US must act to curb Chávez's excesses
By Joseph Nunez
Published: May 27 2004 21:26 | Last Updated: May 27
As usual, I screw up the title again.
The above should have been the title of my previous
post.
What was that thing with which I once embarrassed
myself: Alzheimer's or so?
I guess I am suffering form that at this not so late
age.
Best
Jim:
> As far as I could tell, you were saying that
> because Nash was crazy, NE was wrong in some
> sense.
Jim,
It was Mirowsky who wrote those pieces Ted sent, not
Ted.
I happen to have read the book too and I must confess
that I was greatly influenced by his Machine Dreams,
as well as by his
Jim:
> the "endogeneity of tastes" assumption in GT and neoclassical
> theory does indeed reflect Western-style individualism
> (what many Westerners might call the _only_ kind of
> individualism).
As I understand it, it is not the "endogeneity of tastes" but "heterogeneity
in tastes" that p
> WHen I grow up I want to be like Barkley.
>
> dd
For that you need to go back to some reasonable university. You cannot grow
up to be like Barkley at a money management house you work now.
Best,
Sabri
http://www.riskcenter.com/story.php?id=8663
May 18: Energy Risk - Oil Prices Reach Record Levels And Fears Grow That
Supply Will Not Meet Demand in China
---
Location: New York
Author: Ellen J. Silverman
Date: Tuesday, May 18, 2004
-
Game Theory should have been the title of my previous post.
By the way, that I do not like Game Theory has nothing to do with that I am
a Leftist.
But it has a lot to do with that I am an Easterner.
Best,
Sabri
Jim:
> As I noted, GT doesn't (usually?) take individual
> tastes, ideologies, etc. as endogenously determined
> by the social structure or game.
Exactly.
At least, the Nash Equilibrium Version of it does not.
If someone asked me what the most important aspect/issue of/with
economics/econometri
An excerpt from the below Counterpunch article:
> What does this have to do with Iraq? It is unlikely that
> this country, held together so effectively by tyranny,
> could avoid splitting into at least three separate enclaves
> if the US were to pull out abruptly. Of these three parts,
> it is
Torture as pornography
The pictures of American soldiers humiliating Iraqi detainees are
reminiscent of sadomasochistic porn, says military historian Joanna Bourke.
And we should not be surprised
Friday May 7, 2004 The Guardian
A woman ties a noose around a naked man's neck and forces him to
WTI New York session has successfully commenced last Saturday. You can read
the final statement of the jury of conscience, the press release, and the
presentations in the first two parts of the session from the following link:
http://www.worldtribunal-nyc.org/Document/index.htm
The third part, pr
New York Session of the World Tribunal on Iraq
Saturday, May 8, 2004
Cooper Union, Great Hall
[7 East 7th Street at 3rd Av, NYC]
ALL DAY - Starts 10:00 a.m.
[doors open 9:30 a.m.]
www.worldtribunal-nyc.org
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
FREE - donations welcome
Bombs have been dropped and lives shatte
Joel:
> But I don't agree that it is ever a good idea,
> or maybe anything other than cynical, to say
> we don't care about what the outcome of the
> situation will be, no matter how far out of
> our control or from our ideal it ends up being.
This is not what I said, or at least not what I had i
Grant:
> not to mention a much greater ability to
> generate popular support
Greater than that of Chalabi maybe but a negligibly
small (or infinitesimal) ability nevertheless.
Anyone who knows anything about the left in my part of
the world knows this.
The left back there is not to be taken ser
either up to the U.S. nor to the rest of the
west to bring peace to our region and I don't give a
shit to that so-called reconstruction, either.
Enough is enough!
It is only up to us to decide where we want to go in
the future.
And hear this from someone who dispises religous
fundamentalisms of any kind.
Sabri Oncu
Michael:
> We have discussed the Mark Jones thread over
> and over, so I would not want to reignite it,
> but water is much more difficult.
I really miss Mark.
Does anyone know how to cummunicate with God to ask
his permission so that Mark can join in the
discussions as a ghost?
Maybe, he alrea
Louis:
> I believe it. I worked with people like him
> in Houston. A guy in the next cubicle from me
> used to read the bible at lunch.
I used to work with a guy who used to read the bible
at lunch too, although he was not in the next cubicle
from me. After all, I was a "dignified" product
manage
Charles:
> Engels also said that when American workers
> move they move with "seven league boots"
> ( i.e. take giant steps) . We are still
> waiting :>)
As an Arabic saying goes:
"Terrible Habibi!"
By the way, "habibi" means "the loved one".
Best,
Sabri
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/04/29/garden/29FLAG.html
In Iraq, Flag Design, Too, Comes Under Fire
By ERNEST BECK and JULIE LASKY
Published: April 29, 2004
WHEN the government of Qatar, the tiny, oil-rich
emirate, asked Tariq Atrissi last year to design a
logo for it, the mandate was clear: to com
"...from good historical reasons, the Americans are
worlds behind in all theoretical things, and while
they did not bring over any medieval institutions from
Europe they did bring over masses of medieval
traditions, religion, English common (feudal) law,
superstition, spiritualism, in short every k
Poll: Iraqis conflicted about war, its impact
Survey done mostly before recent cycle of violence
BAGHDAD, Iraq (CNN) -- Nearly half the Iraqis polled
in a survey conducted primarily in March and early
April said they believed the U.S.-led war had done
more harm than good, but 61 percent of respond
Tim:
> If the "vast majority" of the traders behave
> irrationally and deny the uncertainty through
> conventional forecasting practices that make
> their actions predictable by the small number
> of traders able to behave rationally (i.e able
> to understand and predict the irrationality),
> then
> Comment: I don't see this. That a class contains all
> of a given group does not mean that the class term
> is meaningless.
You are right. That a class contains all of a given
group does not mean that the class term is
meaningless, at least, not always.
My point was that there is no one out the
> I was not referring to any particular paper.
> I was referring to the increasingly common use
> of the term "noise traders" as a designation of
> all market participants not acting in accordance
> with economic fundamentals. I think the locus
> classicus of the term is a paper by Fisher
> Black,
Michael:
> Actually, I prefer not to have sectarian
> discussions here.
Me too.
Indeed, not just here, but everywhere.
Enough of this Doug-Louis or Louis-Doug thing!
They are in their fifties and are hardly kids anymore.
My friends!
Before you attack each other, go and watch yourselves
in a
Tom:
> A speculative bubble exists whenever a market
> is dominated by investors ("noise traders" in
> the economics literature) with short time horizons
> who have taken highly leveraged long positions.
I read that "noise traders" paper by Summers et al. It
is just one possible explanation and a
> I think it's time for another PEN-L vacation.
> Enjoy! - Doug
Why are you taking offense Doug?
I did not insult you.
What you don't realize is that whatever the problems
you and Lou are having, I don't think neither Lou nor
you are the right party, as if in such such situations
there can be on
>
> Because of subject matter or personalities involved?
>
> Doug
Doug,
We all know about whom this comment is and maybe you
don't realize but your personality is not
significantly different.
The thing is, I like and respect both of you.
Look, both of you are older than I am, not that I am
that
Dickens, Edwin
> If so, then the risk of disinflation still
> outweighs the risk of inflation, in the sense
> that it's unclear that the economy can sustain
> positive real short-term interest rates.
> It's the free money, in real terms, that feeds
> the "carry trade" underlying the run-up in
> c
Joanna:
> Sabri,
>
> You must go see a movie called "Schindler's List."
> ..
> I do think it's important to see this movie if
> you want to understand the current zeitgeist.
I had seen it.
Now, I know that DMS will take offense when I say this
but I happen to know what zeitgeist means. I had
Michael:
> I thought it extraordinary that the Democrats
> could lose in the last election, but to lose
> this time will be an act of pure genius --
> unless the economic recovery hurries up.
Well!
Here is one conspiracy theory:
Democrats knew what the Republicans would do in view
of the decli
Louis:
> The genre occupies a similar place in Greek
> culture to that of the tango in Argentina,
> or to flamenco in Spain
Or Fado to Portugal.
And whatever Amelia Rodriguez is to Fado or Charlie
Parker to Bebop, Andonis Dalgas is that to Rembetika.
If you like Tango, Fado, Flameko and the like
I wish that Petras as well as those who criticize him
would begin the engage workers. Labor education is a
good place to start.
Michael Yates
- Original Message -
From: Doug Henwood
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Sent: Sunday, April 11, 2004 2:39 PM
Subject: Re: [PEN-L] Third World Resistance and
Max:
> This sort of drivel reminds me why the U.S. left
> is so insulated from political power.
>
> mbs
As an outsider who has the chance to observe from
within, I don't think this is the reason.
The American left doesn't have anything to offer to
the American people, most of whom are working-cl
Third World Resistance and Western Intellectual
Solidarity
by James Petras
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
April 7, 2004 "ICH" -- Falluja, Baghdad, Ramadi,
Nasiriya--an entire people has risen to confront the
colonial occupation army, its mercenaries, clients,
and collaborators. First in massive peaceful prote
My previous post went to the list with a wrong title,
because I just hit the reply button to an old message
to save myself from typing the list address.
By the way, I hate to "fight" with people on the net
and I apologize for furthering this "stupid debate" in
a public domain.
Best,
Sabri
eteroskedastik" is quite
obvious, indeed, trivial to me but obviously you don't
know what it means.
Why cannot I suffer from a similar problem?
Do you have any idea about what the Arabic word
"sabri" means, for example?
Or, the Turkish word "oncu" means?
Best,
Sabri Oncu
DMS:
> Last time I checked, I was classified as an
> American, as are thousands, hundreds of thousands,
> maybe millions who demonstrate their complete
> opposition to US military and economic occupation,
> and the possibilities of proxy occupation.
Well! I have always felt sorry for Americans be
> How many troops does the Arab League have and
> how many of them can they afford to send to Iraq?
> And who is going to pay for them?
> --
> Yoshie
Yoshie,
As an old saying goes:
"Follow your own path, let the Americans talk!"
Sabri
RESOLUTION PROPOSING A MILLION WORKERS MARCH ON
WASHINGTON
ADOPTED BY ILWU LOCAL
Whereas: our ancestors fought tirelessly in this
country for the right to organize unions and ensure
that our government recognized this right because it
is a cornerstone of democracy, and
Whereas: that because of
> Since you clearly don't want to read the actual
> poll, let me supply some highlights for you. These
> results don't sound like they're coming from people
> too terrified to speak their minds.
>
> Doug
Here is one input from one of those from that part of
the world, who is not terrified to spea
>From http://www.prudentbear.com
>
.
The office of the Comptroller of the Currency recently
reported fourth-quarter U.S. Commercial Bank
derivative data. For the quarter, Total Derivative
positions (notional value) expanded at a 24%
annualized rate to $71.1 Trillion. By type of risk,
>> In the first place, the laborer must work in
>> order to obtain this interest. ... In the second
>> place, he cannot transform the capital-value ...
>> of his labor-power into cash by transferring
it"
>>
>> Jim D.
Max:
> There's always Bowie bonds . . .
How about Sabri bonds?
I am issuin
> I for one am looking forward to Ceylan's next
> film, no matter his esthetic predispositions.
>
> Louis Proyect
I did not know Nuri, that is, Nuri Bilge Ceylan, well
but I know of him.
We were both at the Bogazici University in the early
1980s. He was one of the best photographers of our
Photog
Some years ago, when I was a 28 years old "young man",
I was lovers with an English professor, who was 41
years old at the time.
She must be in her mid-fifties in these days. The
"old" male professors in her department used to call
me a Greek Boy, although I never understood why.
They knew that I
Marvin:
> I have a genuine interest in the issue, want to
> know more about it, and have no ax to grind. I
> think it was good of Juriann Bendian to raise it,
> and bad for Sabri to curtly dismiss his effort as
> a "bad essay" without any explanation
> except "derivative are dangerous" (indeed) an
Jim:
> I think Sabri goes much too far. All contracts --
> including unsigned ones -- are based on trust,
> not love.
Not all but most and I agree. Trust is the main thing.
What I had in mind when I wrote what I wrote was my
"contracts" with my late father, my son, my spouse, a
few close friends
I said:
> Marvin:
>
> > "maybe they work for hedging purposes,
> > but they still represent a potential source
> > of catastrophic instability".
>
> No! This was not my point.
By the way, it happens that I was the last "product
manager" of the Leland-Rubinstein portfolio insurance
program. It die
Marvin:
> "maybe they work for hedging purposes,
> but they still represent a potential source
> of catastrophic instability".
No! This was not my point. My was not that "maybe they
work for hedging purposes". My point was that they may
work for hedging purposes but not always.
Size matters.
Al
I am not sure if this is a _side issue_ Justin. As you
may have noticed, I do not use _scare quotes_ this
time since I use quotes most of the time, but not
always, to _highlight_ things.
>>
I don't think there is any need to put scare quotes
around "contracts" in a market socialist society. A
con
Marvin:
> Sabri: How would you answer the argument that most
> derivatives are used for hedging operations and are
> therefore a source of stability for the system?
Dear Marvin,
I was tempted to open up with the following:
"Are they? I did not know this!"
But if I do that you may get the impre
Justin:
> Moreover one could imagine a market society
> where, for example, the corporations did not
> have undemocratic power and wealth, and where
> the workers managed them themselves.
This is an interesting point.
I have never been against optimizing objective
functions, assuming that object
Marvin Gandall:
> Hungarian, but a good essay nonetheless. :)
No! It is not a good essay.
It is a wonderful demonstration of lack of
understanding of derivatives, as the following
statement of its author demonstrates:
> the rate of profit on capital can be significantly
> higher, and the risk m
Is that not funny!
I have been working on a project related with this.
Love it dearly.
Best,
Sabri
Here is a related article, although its author was
"able" to show everything I plan to "unshow". We will
see.
Reciprocally Interlocking Boards of Directors and
Executive Com
Here is a book that you may find interesting:
"The Politics of Permanent Crisis: Class, Ideology and
State in Turkey"
Edited by Nesecan Baykan and Sungur Savran.
Here is an excerpt from Baykan and Savran's editorial
piece:
>>>
Having been thrown by history to the front stage in
Eurasia, one of
European perceptions, Americas greater Middle East
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/opinion/09_03_04_d.asp
Following the divisions over the Iraq war between
the United States and some of its key European allies
as well as within the European Union actors on both
sides of the Atlantic have been t
Europe looks at plan for a Greater Middle East
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/opinion/10_03_04_d.asp
To understand how Europe will respond to US plans for
the Greater Middle East, it may be helpful to contrast
European approaches to the approaches and philosophy
followed by the US administration. F
We don't want your Great Middle East Initiative you
bloody USA. It is up to us, not to you, to decide
where we want to go!
Sabri
The Globalist
http://www.theglobalist.com/DBWeb/StoryId.aspx?StoryId=3754
The Greater Middle East The Bush Administration's
Perspective
By Dick Cheney
Ian quoting Veblen:
>>>
Politics and investment are still allowed to decide
matters of industrial policy which should plainly be
left to the discretion of the general staff of
production engineers driven by no commercial bias.
<<
Once my little sociologist brother accused his
mechanical engineer
> There is no contradiction. Carrol means they are
> competent at power politics, getting underlings to
> do the tough work (exploitation) i.e. political
> economy.
>
> Charles
Hi Charles!
Good to hear from you. I have not seen you around for
quite a while. How have you been?
I don't think there
Carrol:
> No one said anything about "more competent." I
> myself am suspicious of almost all comparative
> judgments of competence, ...
You are right! Yours was not a comparative statement.
It was my mistake. You said "most of them ... are
pretty damn competent."
I am sure there are a few among
> > Carrol Cox wrote:
> >
> > Most of them (unfortunately for us) are pretty
> > damn competent, though it's because of their
> > connections that they get to exercise that
> > competence.
>
> If this is the case, I have not seen it in thirty
> years in ANY place I have worked.
I will have to agre
Ian,
This bloody "The Classless Society" book by Paul W.
Kingston costs $21.95. Moreover, this is the papeback
price. The hardcover price is $49.50.
I am not going to buy it, of course.
Too expensive for a working class CEO.
By the way, I also happen to be the President as well
as the only work
> Louis is the left's answer to Lazlo Toth.
>
> mbs
I know nothing about this Lazlo Toth but I am glad
that Louis exists.
Hopefully one day, I will meet Louis, that is, my
"eniste", in the real world.
Best,
Sabri
> Please go right ahead and do a better analysis
> of the two industries in question using your
> spacecraft.. Challenger or Columbia?
Neighter Challenger or Columbia.
In my language it is called:
Ananin Ami!
If you don't know what it means, go and check a
Turkish dictionary!
Best,
Sabri
>> Hey dms!
>>
>> Tell me how you are planning to conduct that
>> concrete analysis?
>>
>> Sabri
>___
> Ask and you shall receive...
And I just took a look at what you sent.
It is full of "statistical obscurantism" and
inferences from them, possibly some of which are
dms:
> Personally, I think there is much more to be
> gained from the concrete analysis of the concrete
> conditions of exchange, production, overproduction,
> and profit, here and now, then and there, or any
> combination thereof.
Hey dms!
Tell me how you are planning to conduct that concrete
a
> Q:
> Is this the same as regression to the mean?
> Thx
> H
Hi Hari,
Good to hear from you! How is our mutual friend doing?
It is not the same as regression to the mean.
Regression to the mean is a different concept
associated with that those below the mean will do
better and move up, whereas
Robert:
> The problem is that concepts like heteroskedasticity
> refer to samples and how well they reflect the total
> population. Here we have the total population of US
> presidential elections, so we do not need
> statistical inference
I don't want to turn this into a pissing contest but
we a
Doug:
> If I'm remembering the literature correctly,
> there's not enough data to prove with statistical
> certainty that stock returns are positive
> over the long term.
Well!
It depends on what is meant by the long term but I
don't think there exists such a concept as
"statistical certainty".
>Sabri Oncu wrote:
>>
>> heteroskedastic.
>
>WHAT???
>
>Carrol
Heteroskedastic means non-constant variance.
If you look at the way the data varies with time, the
fluctuations are larger initially and the fluctuations
attenuate as the time progresses, although they
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