Re: [silk] Building intelligent machines with casual reasoning

2018-08-23 Thread Charles Haynes
Thinking out loud, it seems to me that for most things Bayesian logic supercedes Pearls causality. The probability of something given a prior, versus the probability without the prior is, in some sense, the degree to which the prior "causes" the result. The beauty is that you can usefully reason

Re: [silk] Building intelligent machines with casual reasoning

2018-08-23 Thread Charles Haynes
You mention Bayesian statistics as a thing like Pearls causality maths that's too complex.for most people and so hasn't caught on. I'd argue the exact opposite. Bayesian statistics ARE complicated but the first time I saw them my reaction was Oh My God this is going to change everything about how

Re: [silk] Building intelligent machines with casual reasoning

2018-08-22 Thread Bharat Shetty
On Wed, Aug 22, 2018 at 11:38 PM Landon Hurley wrote: > Sorry to delurk with a massive rant but I love this field and Pearl's > work, and spent the last 18 months being denied my doctorate because I use > to much maths for a Psych department. > > >Anyone else have opinions on why his ideas

Re: [silk] Building intelligent machines with casual reasoning

2018-08-22 Thread Landon Hurley
Bharat, I had the same double take but upon pondering I assumed it meant clinical decision making group (the MIT enclave). Landon On 22 August 2018 22:21:49 GMT-04:00, Bharat Shetty wrote: >On Thu, Aug 23, 2018 at 4:54 AM wrote: > >> First, stepping back, https://youtu.be/ajGX7odA87k

Re: [silk] Building intelligent machines with casual reasoning

2018-08-22 Thread Bharat Shetty
On Thu, Aug 23, 2018 at 4:54 AM wrote: > First, stepping back, https://youtu.be/ajGX7odA87k provides some examples > of my ML and AI involve too much magical thinking. That jobs with some of > the points in the Quanta essay. I'm especially sensitive to this because of > days of AI including a

Re: [silk] Building intelligent machines with casual reasoning

2018-08-22 Thread silklist
First, stepping back, https://youtu.be/ajGX7odA87k provides some examples of my ML and AI involve too much magical thinking. That jobs with some of the points in the Quanta essay. I'm especially sensitive to this because of days of AI including a stint in the MIT clinical decision making group

Re: [silk] Building intelligent machines with casual reasoning

2018-08-22 Thread Landon Hurley
Sorry to delurk with a massive rant but I love this field and Pearl's work, and spent the last 18 months being denied my doctorate because I use to much maths for a Psych department. >Anyone else have opinions on why his ideas haven't caught on more >generally? There are two connected

Re: [silk] Building intelligent machines with casual reasoning

2018-08-22 Thread Heather Madrone
Charles Haynes wrote on 8/22/18 2:00 AM August 22, 2018: Pearl has been spruiking his causality formalisms for years, but they don't seem to have caught on despite widespread dissemiy of the ideas. I've read them and my reaction was "hm, interesting" rather than "oh! I see how this could be

Re: [silk] Building intelligent machines with casual reasoning

2018-08-22 Thread Charles Haynes
Pearl has been spruiking his causality formalisms for years, but they don't seem to have caught on despite widespread dissemiy of the ideas. I've read them and my reaction was "hm, interesting" rather than "oh! I see how this could be useful" Anyone else have opinions on why his ideas haven't