Even though total car sales in the US were down 5% in
January, sales of hybrids climbed over 27%! Ears perk
up when any market segment can make that kind of gain
in a down-cycle.
Although prior monthly comparative-increases for
hybrids have been steady, this recent burst is now a
major statistical development. Once again, GM and Ford
(to a lesser extent) are paying the price for their
own short-sightedness, arrogance and tardiness; and
Toyota is laughing all the way to the bank.
Although by year-end 2008, as hybrid gains continue,
they will have represented only 4-6 percent of the new
vehicles sold in the USA- yet ... at even a lesser
rate of relative increase (month-to-month) if this
continues into 2009: then it will only require one
more year for hybrid market penetration to reach 50%
of all new cars.
That would be for the full year 2010. Most likely the
rate of increase will taper-off, but hybrids and small
diesels could capture 40% of US sales by the end of
2011. Will Detroit share in that success? Doubtful,
they are still in denail ... few there will
acknowledge such numbers. They still think Toyota's
gamble was some kind of fluke, or that gas prices will
reverse.
In Europe, where fuel is costlier, the two solutions
(hybrids and small diesels) will probably exceed the
50% market penetration this year.
Toyotas Prius accounted for half the US volume of
hybrids. GM almost zero. The curious thing is that GM
considers the Prius a luxury car due to its price
premium, and yet it may end up outselling Cadillac
very soon.
Meanwhile, Bob Lutz, General Motors vice chairman and
chief car guru (who is becoming a laughing-stock of
the Green movement) still has a job. Will GM have the
courage to ditch this 72 year old expert before it
is too late?
He has tried belatedly to jump on the hybrid
band-wagon, but 'where's the beef'? If something is
not done, he will end up driving GM into bankruptcy,
just as he almost did at Chrysler. Lutz made his name
developing gas-guzzling behemoths like the V-10 Dodge
Viper. How many of them do you see on the road these
days?
As recently as summer 2007 Lutz, who has his own blog
LOL - was declaring Hybrid cars like those made by
Toyota 'make no economic sense,' because their price
will never come down, and diesel autos like those
touted by Chrysler are also uneconomic.
Wow. I will not even quote what he has blurted-out on
a regular basis about global warming and Gore, as this
misguided tidbit about the Prius should be enough to
demote the guy down to repo-man... the only question:
is it symptomatic of the entire company?
Since then, of course, Toyota has dropped the price of
the Prius in Europe and everywhere else but the US
(and that is due to the extremely weak dollar and high
demand), while Chrysler's new diesels are also in high
demand; just as GM can offer nothing much aside from
high priced Super-Bowl Ads for cars which will
probably be too-little, too-late, if they ever reach
market at all. The once-proud US auto industry ???
Lutz also proclaimed: The only place in Europe that
diesel-driven cars are big, is where diesel fuel is
half the cost of regular gasoline [in fact, there is
NO such place]. Lutz-the-putz, continues: In most
places there (Europe), where the costs are comparable
diesel has little market penetration. [totally wrong
in retrospect: the early numbers are 40% of all new
cars sold in the UK in early 2008 are diesel] and for
Brits, diesel fuel is the same price as gasoline, if
not higher.
Being of 'advancing-years' myself (awful euphemism),
it is painful and always disheartening to witness the
*Peter-Principle* in action ... age should, and
usually does, bring some measure of wisdom along for
the ride.
... but still, all things considered, how much longer
can GM keep letting their Peters do the talking, and
make such major market miscalculations? ... all the
while driving a once-excellent and dominant company
into early retirement ?
Jones
