Top posting and not trimming due to primitive "smart" phone interface.
If rate of cognition goes up doesn't ability to predict do so as well? Is there a combinatorial effect that makes predictability intractable? -- Charles On Feb 16, 2011 12:09 PM, "Eugen Leitl" <eu...@leitl.org> wrote: > On Wed, Feb 16, 2011 at 11:28:23AM -0800, Heather Madrone wrote: > >> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elasticity_of_substitution >> >> It's a pretty basic concept, actually, straight out of Economics 2. How > > Sorry, I don't do pseudosciences. Thanks for the links, still see no > relevance to a simple scenario like a positive feedback loop. > >> easy/useful is it to substitute one input for another in production? It >> would take about 2 minutes to explain this concept to another person, >> and even less to point them to a site where they could read about it. > > Yeah, a great way to land in one's killfile. > >> The technological singularity seems like pure science fiction to me, > > Well, you're living in science fiction, then. Doesn't feel too > remarkable, does it? > >> with a lot of wishful thinking standing in for evidence. > > The singularity is nothing but a fancy term for shrinking > horizon of predictability. There's obviously progress (though > not nearly as much progress as certain notable metric cherry-pickers > want to imply), the rate of progress can accelerate in principle, > especially if the rate of cognition goes up (physical ceiling is > probably 10^6 to 10^9 speedup). > > According to > http://www.sciencemag.org/content/early/2011/02/09/science.1200970 > we haven't really started yet. > > -- > Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org";>leitl</a> http://leitl.org > ______________________________________________________________ > ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://www.ativel.com http://postbiota.org > 8B29F6BE: 099D 78BA 2FD3 B014 B08A 7779 75B0 2443 8B29 F6BE >
