> No, I am not able to treat it as a series of occurrences. Each is one > event...that may or may not occur. It's very difficult to explain > something that is patently nonsensical to everyone else, but which I > am unable to shake myself out of. >
There's an interesting thing about probabilities that I read somewhere. If you have a coin that has been flipped twenty times and you have only gotten heads, then how much would you bet on getting heads on the next flip? Answer 1: Chances are 50%. The history doesn't matter. Answer 2: Won't bet much. Tails is much more likely since it's not come for a while, and it's supposed to. (This is the thought process of many people in casino slot machines, and I've been a victim :)) Answer 3: Bet big. Twenty times heads? Dude, the coin is loaded.
