--- Eugen Leitl <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:

> On Sun, Jul 01, 2007 at 07:01:07PM +1000, Stathis
> Papaioannou wrote:
> 
> > What sort of technical information, exactly, is
> still secret after 50 years?
> 
> The precise blueprint for a working device. Not a
> crude gun assembler,
> the full implosion assembly mounty. The HE lens
> geometries, the timing,
> the means of ignition, the neutron primer, the shape
> of the entire assembly 
> and how to get there.

All of this applies only to implosion-type devices,
which are far more complicated and tricky to pull off
than gun-type devices, and which are therefore
unlikely to be used. 

> I was always interested in nuclear technology,
> especially weapon design, so
> I've read several interviews with weapon designers,
> and it is very quite obvious
> what they do say, and what they don't.

If you want to argue, please present your own
arguments and not those of phantom anonymous weapon
designers.

> You won't find that information anywhere, though you
> might be able to purchase that
> information from the nuclear black market, assuming
> you have the right
> connections and can pay the price.

Is there any significant black market in classified
information?

> In fact the assembly of a critical device has some
> close analogy to AI 
> bootstrap. You need large installations, lots of
> energy and a large
> body of experts to get there first.

Assuming you're starting from scratch, yes. Why not
just steal a few kilos of U235? It's a lot easier than
building a billion-dollar enrichment facility.

> > >Everyone knows how to wripte a P2P application.
> Nobody knows how to
> > >build an AI. If it's a large-scale effort the
> knowledge can be controlled
> > >for a long time.
> > 
> > Are you suggesting that this would be possible
> even when the computer
> > hardware is generally available, and it is mainly
> a matter of keeping
> 
> I'm not sure all-purpose hardware would be suitable.
> It depends very much
> upon which computing paradigm is dominant by that
> time (40-50 years
> away from now). Judging from the past, there might
> be not that much
> progress there.
> 
> > the software secret?
> 
> I'm definitely suggesting that secrecy and
> surveillance would go a very
> long way to keeping sentient software out of the
> hands of the general 
> public.

By the time sentient software exists, the question is
moot because it will promptly escape onto the Internet
and will probably wreak havoc from there.

> Arguably, the general public might or might
> not be in possession 
> of the hardware in question.

Sooner or later, regardless of what the required
computing power is, the general public *will* be in
possession of it.

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 - Tom


      
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