Dear Mike, Human evolution would have to be towards ever higher levels of fitness. However, given our rather slow reproductive cycle and the relative proximity of the singularity I do not think that even one more generation - ~25 years - will come and go before the inefficient optimization mechanism of chance mutation and non chance retention will be replaced by a managed process of recursive self improvement.
There might not be a lot of hard science in the field yet but people obviously like to speculate and discuss their ideas - no harm in that - right? To make up your own mind you have to separate the wheat from the chaff - no doubt. The whole concept is quite rough and in an early stage right now. If you would have handed Stradivari a hunk of wood and asked him to play "Concerto" op. 77 by Johannes Brahms he probably would have said that it was a bit early for that. Similarly here. I for one see the beauty of and some progress in the field. If you don't you, may want to check back later. Cheers, Stefan www.jame5.com On 10/24/07, Mike Tintner <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > Every speculation on this board about the nature of future AGI's has been > pure fantasy. Even those which try to dress themselves up in some > semblance > of scientific reasoning. All this speculation, for example, about the > friendliness and emotions of future AGI's has been non-sense - and often > from surprisingly intelligent people. > > Why? Because until we have a machine that even begins to qualify as an AGI > - > that has the LEAST higher adaptivity - until IOW AGI's EXIST- we can't > begin > seriously to predict how they will evolve, let alone whether they will > "take > off." And until we've seen a machine that actually has functioning > emotions > and what purpose they serve, ditto we can't predict their future emotions. > > So how can you cure yourself if you have this apparently incorrigible need > to produce speculative fantasies with no scientific basis in reality > whatsoever? > > I suggest : first speculate about the following: > > what will be the next stage of HUMAN evolution? What will be the next > significant advance in the form of the human species - as significant, > say, > as the advance from apes, or - ok - some earlier form like Neanderthals? > > Hey, if you are prepared to speculate about fabulous future AGI's, > predicting that relatively small evolutionary advance shouldn't be too > hard. > But I suggest that if you do think about future human evolution your mind > will start clamming up. Why? Because you will have a sense of physical/ > evolutionary constraints (unlike AGI where people seem to have zero sense > of > technological constraints), - an implicit recognition that any future > human > form will have to evolve from the present form - and to make predictions, > you will have to explain how. And you will know that anything you say may > only serve to make an ass of yourself. So any prediction you make will > have > to have SOME basis in reality and not just in science fiction. The same > should be true here. > > > > > > ----- > This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email > To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: > http://v2.listbox.com/member/?&; > -- Stefan Pernar 3-E-101 Silver Maple Garden #6 Cai Hong Road, Da Shan Zi Chao Yang District 100015 Beijing P.R. CHINA Mobil: +86 1391 009 1931 Skype: Stefan.Pernar ----- This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?member_id=4007604&id_secret=56991470-d03d23
