On Sat, 2005-10-29 at 01:54 -0500, Robert Derman wrote:
> > <big snip>
> >
> >> if 'better' ruled, we'd have all had betamax videos, 
> 
> So for a product to succeed it must not just be technically better,

It doesn't need to be technically better.If it was about being
technically better, DOS and the IBM PC would never have got off the
ground. There were far better technologies around at the time. What
mattered most was confidence and "good enough". IBM established
confidence. The next most important factor was a perception of open
architecture so anyone could build a PC to a standard such that all
could use the same software. The flaw in that thinking was that the OS
and CPU were not open standards and so started the Wintel monopoly. The
rest is history leading to MS's and to an extent Intel's dominant
positions in the industry. It had virtually nothing to do with technical
elegance or innovation. Generally the people who think it has have no
real technical experience of computer systems other than DOS and Windows
based PCs or are too young to have experienced the origins of the
microcomputer in the late 70s and early 80s.

>  it 
> must be better in ways that actually matter to the average consumer of 
> that type of product.  On the average TV in use at the time of the Beta 
> Wars, the extra quality of Beta was not all that appearant. 

Yes, the technology has to be good enough for the purpose not
necessarily technically superior which is why if there was sufficient
confidence in OOo any shortcomings compared to MSO would be insufficient
to make any real difference. I used a computer that had a multitasking
GUI, Outline fonts, drag and drop etc etc yet people took up character
based DOS PCs in preference *and* paid more for them. Why? Because they
were told they were the "industry standard" and "open architecture".
That shows its nothing to do with technical features and excellence and
all to do with confidence. Since most people were just using PCs as
glorified typewriters at the time WP running character based on DOS was
good enough and generated confidence through marketing and large scale
take up in business. That is also why marketing intitiatives and
confidence building are so imprortant to the success of OOo. Also why
under-mining confidence is extremely bad for the project, assuming that
people belonging to the project are in fact advocates.

> That is why I think that OOo will win with average consumers.  If 
> average consumers simply become aware of the existance of OOo, they 
> will, in most cases choose it over M$ Office.  OOo's price trumps M$ 
> Office's features almost every time.  And in my own experience M$ Office 
> doesn't even have any features that would lead me to choose it over OOo, 
> even if it cost the same!

Also its easy and convenient to just download and install. No sending
for CDs, no license keys etc. Now that might not matter to even a
majority but as the significance of the size of the minority using ooo
grows, confidence grows. As confidence grows more people will use it so
the ,arket share will increase and so confidence will grow. The long
term outcome is inevitable if take up of OOo continues even slowly, the
timescale is more difficult to predict. 

ODF's acceptance is all part of the confidence building. If it doesn't
happen it isn't the end of the game, the game just takes longer. Of
course MS want to prolong things as far as possible to try and get
alternative products going before the gravy train hits the buffers. That
is perfectly understandable but that is their problem not ours. Our
singleminded aim should be to optimise all the conditions that promote
confidence in OOo.

-- 
Ian Lynch <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
ZMSL

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