Dear Brian,

Ahah, you seem to assume that A+P will solve the ISP's shortage
of IPv4 addresses. That may be true for a year or three, but
after that they will discover that they have to CGN their A+P
customers, and then you have NAT444 after all, IMHO.

I don't assume A+P an ultimate solution for IPv4 address sharing.
I just think that certain ISPs will (be able) to use it. After all,
considering 1024 ports per user, this means 1:64 sharing ratio,
which is a lot compared to 1 IP per customer. If we forget about
Internet of things, which will not be based on IPv4 anyway, I don't
know many ISPs who could make their user base 64 times the size
it is now. Of course, some will do, but they can then use dynamic
port allocation.

Also, even the userbase for an ISP gets this big, there is still
no need for NAT444 in long term with careful planning. A CPE can
support DS-Lite as well as stateless A+P mechanisms at the same
time. It's not that complex to do this. And if it turns out A+P
is not an option (any more), customer-by-customer migration to
DS-Lite could be considered.

Nejc
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