No, I don't guarantee that everyone who keeps the same door will be wrong 2/3rds of the time. I know that if we carry this out to a large number, such as 100, that it is pretty much guaranteed that they will be wrong about 2/3rds of the time. That's what probability is.
The game will be won if the contestant switches doors 2/3rds of the time is calculated by the following: (1/3)(1/3) + (2/3)(2/3) = 5/9 The contestant will win 5 out of 9 times. Bob's computer simulation shows that switching the door will win twice as often as not switching the door. That's 2/3 and 1/3 probability. A quick look a Bob's simulation shows, by calculation as I did earlier, that the overall outcome of 1/2 switch and 1/2 not switching should be 1/2. His experiment confirms exactly what we were looking for. I've already stated over and over again. If you believe that a person will win 1/2 of the time by not switching, then play my game. I'll even up the stakes if you want to make more money off of me. I could give you arguments all day, but I'm not. It's simple, will you play my game? Will you challenge my answer? Unless there is some flawed mechanism of how I set up the game, prove to me that you're right and earn your $50. You could buy 5 cubes with that money. Tyson Mao MSC #631 California Institute of Technology On Dec 28, 2005, at 3:56 PM, d_j_salvia wrote: > You seem to guarantee that everyone will be wrong 2/3rds of the time. > There is no guarantee. > > I'm curious, what percentage of the time will the game be won if the > computer contestant switches it's choice 2/3s of the time? ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~--> Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/MXMplB/TM --------------------------------------------------------------------~-> Yahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/speedsolvingrubikscube/ <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
