In order to appease Stefan, I propose we play the game this way: I put in $5, and you put in $4. The combined $9 is put behind one of the three doors (or cups, or whatever). I'll let you choose the door. You choose the door, someone reveals a door without the money (that's not the door you chose). If the $9 is behind the original door you chose, you keep the money. If it's behind the other door, I'll keep the money. We repeat this 100 times.
I'm not arguing the probabilities of this game anymore. Here's the game. Do you want to play? If indeed the answer is 1/2, 1/2, then you'll win $50. If you have ESP and can perceive things, then you'll win money. I'm prepared to part with up to $500 for this game. Tyson Mao MSC #631 California Institute of Technology On Dec 28, 2005, at 3:56 PM, d_j_salvia wrote: > Hi Tyson, > > --- In [email protected], Tyson Mao <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > wrote: >> >> Time difference? So if I understand you correctly, humans have a >> certain ESP which is also depended on the time variation in the >> decisions? > > No. If the computer takes longer to ask you if you want to switch > after you chose correctly this could be perceived, consciously or > unconsciously, and affect your choice. > >> So far, the latest arguments have all been that humans are able to >> influence things that are random and have an ability to get the >> 'right' >> answer when they don't know any information regarding the answer at >> all. > > Can you produce an honest refutation of the Rhine experiments? > > You seem to guarantee that everyone will be wrong 2/3rds of the time. > There is no guarantee. > >> However, can you agree that a computer playing the game will win >> 2/3 of the time if the computer switches the door every time? > > I think it's possible. > Are you using the same "random number" generator for both sides of the > game? They could accidently line up and the computer contestent could > choose correctly 100% of the time, and switching 100% of the time it > would lose 100% of the time. > > I'm curious, what percentage of the time will the game be won if the > computer contestant switches it's choice 2/3s of the time? > > Cheers, > > David J > >> Tyson Mao >> MSC #631 >> California Institute of Technology >> >> On Dec 27, 2005, at 11:10 AM, d_j_salvia wrote: >> >>> --- In [email protected], "Stefan Pochmann" >>> <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: >>>> >>>> --- In [email protected], "d_j_salvia" >>>> <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: >>>>> >>>>> As I wrote in response to Gustav, I did 100 trials with no >>>>> switching >>>>> and won 76 times. >>>> >>>> I think you overestimate our stupidity. >>>> >>>> Cheers! >>>> Stefan >>>> >>> >>> Stefan, >>> >>> If I thought you were stupid I would not put so much effort into >>> explaining my thoughts on the matter. >>> >>> I did the experiment and reported the result. If the result does not >>> coincide with your beliefs that is not my problem. >>> >>> If you did not check the program that you used for this test, to see >>> it there was any time difference between processing a correct initial >>> guess and processing an incorrect initial guess, then you cannot tell >>> me for certain that you know that you got no feedback cues >>> whatsoever. >>> >>> Did you check? >>> >>> Bye, >>> >>> David J >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> Yahoo! Groups Links >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >> > > > > > > > > > Yahoo! Groups Links > > > > > > ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~--> Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/MXMplB/TM --------------------------------------------------------------------~-> Yahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/speedsolvingrubikscube/ <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
