Thats the best way I have heard it put for this entire dicussion. Good thinking Stefan!
Peter Greenwood --- In [email protected], "Stefan Pochmann" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > This doesn't make the argument wrong. Yes, you can gain some knowledge > this way and be more sure that changing would be better. But it > doesn't make you win more often when changing. The probability for > that stays at 2/3. > > I knew a similar case as yours, but here's a really extreme one: After > you pick your first door, the host opens *all* three doors and let's > you stay or change. Even with this 100% knowledge (because you see the > car), changing is successful exactly 2/3 of the time, namely in those > cases where you were initially wrong. > > Cheers! > Stefan > > > --- In [email protected], Rune Wesström <rune. > [EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > A lot of intuition! > > You guess on door #1. The host is staying in front of door #3. Door > #2 is 2 meters away from him, nevertheless he opens that door. What > would you expect to find behind door #3? A goat?! (Let us exclude > double-crossing!). > > ----- Original Message ----- > > From: "Stefan Pochmann" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > > To: <[email protected]> > > Sent: Wednesday, December 28, 2005 3:47 PM > > Subject: [Speed cubing group] Re: (Off topic)3 doors... > > > > > > Changing wins if and only if you initially chose the wrong door, i. > e. > > two times of three. > > > > Can you explain why your suggestion makes this wrong? > > > > Cheers! > > Stefan > > > > --- In [email protected], Rune Wesström <rune. > > [EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > > > In real life the host is Not staying totally symmetrically in > > relation to the doors. (He is right-handed Or left-handed. Maybe he > > has to take a halfstep to open a certain door etc.). If he now opens > > the "easiest" door, Not changing wins more often than one time of > > three. If he opens the other door, changing will win more often than > > two times of three. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Yahoo! Groups Links > > > ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~--> Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/MXMplB/TM --------------------------------------------------------------------~-> Yahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/speedsolvingrubikscube/ <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
