--- In [email protected], Rune Wesström <rune. [EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > "Good thinking Stefan!" ? He is contradicting himself when saying: "you can gain some knowledge this way and be more sure that changing would be better...but... the probability stays at 2/3". But if we had a probability of 2/3 whithout this knowledge and then bettered it, how can we still stay at 2/3?
Hehe, you better don't remove the important parts of the quote :-). I was talking about two different things. I said: > > Yes, you can gain some knowledge > > this way and be more sure that changing would be better. But it > > doesn't make you win more often when changing. The probability for > > that stays at 2/3. The probability that "change" wins the car stays at 2/3 and the probability for "keep" stays at 1/3. The extra knowledge doesn't help to make these strategies any better, "keep" wins if and only if your initial choice was correct (1/3) and "change" wins if and only if it was wrong (2/3). What you *can* do with this extra knowledge is make up a *better strategy* than those two. In my extreme example where you get to see the car, a good strategy would be "keep my door if and only if it contains the car". This *new* strategy wins the car 100% of the time. Now what about the situation you described? The game is the same but you get extra information from the behaviour of the host. Can you use it to make up a new strategy? Hmmmmm.... actually I just noticed something. Gotta think about it, will be back when I'm done with that. But I'm gonna submit the above now anyway. Cheers! Stefan ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~--> Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/MXMplB/TM --------------------------------------------------------------------~-> Yahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/speedsolvingrubikscube/ <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
