Thats a hilarious idea. Go Tyson! I just wish I could be there. I have a certain tactic I'm sure works, unless you pull the Lindsey Lohan card mentioned by Marco.
/Gustav Tyson Mao skrev: >I'm going to set up this game, but instead of a car as a prize, as I'm >obviously not that wealthy, I'll give away free cubes. We'll do this >in San Francisco during the break and we'll just call up random members >of the audience who are there spectating the competition. If I have >enough cubes, I'll do it 10 times. > >Tyson Mao >MSC #631 >California Institute of Technology > >On Dec 28, 2005, at 12:46 PM, Rune Wesström wrote: > > > >>"Good thinking Stefan!" ? He is contradicting himself when saying: >>"you can gain some knowledge this way and be more sure that changing >>would be better...but... the probability stays at 2/3". But if we had >>a probability of 2/3 whithout this knowledge and then bettered it, how >>can we still stay at 2/3? He is discussing the a priori probabilities >>before the first choise, *I* am discussing the probabilities before >>the second choice, that is, when the host has opened one door. There >>is some concensus here that the probabilities are 1/3 or 2/3. But if >>we accept the theoretical assumtion (Pochmann apparently does) that >>the host has an "easy" door and a "difficult" door and he chooses the >>first with a probability of 1/2 + epsilon and the second with a >>probability 1/2 - epsilon (epsilon not 0), the result will be another. >>Ask mister Pochmann to calculate the probabilities for you. Mister >>Bayes may help him. >>R >>----- Original Message ----- >>From: "pjgat09" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> >>To: <[email protected]> >>Sent: Wednesday, December 28, 2005 5:41 PM >>Subject: [Speed cubing group] Re: (Off topic)3 doors... >> >> >>Thats the best way I have heard it put for this entire dicussion. Good >>thinking Stefan! >> >>Peter Greenwood >> >>--- In [email protected], "Stefan Pochmann" >><[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: >> >> >>>This doesn't make the argument wrong. Yes, you can gain some knowledge >>>this way and be more sure that changing would be better. But it >>>doesn't make you win more often when changing. The probability for >>>that stays at 2/3. >>> >>>I knew a similar case as yours, but here's a really extreme one: After >>>you pick your first door, the host opens *all* three doors and let's >>>you stay or change. Even with this 100% knowledge (because you see the >>>car), changing is successful exactly 2/3 of the time, namely in those >>>cases where you were initially wrong. >>> >>>Cheers! >>>Stefan >>> >>> >>>--- In [email protected], Rune Wesström <rune. >>>[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: >>> >>> >>>>A lot of intuition! >>>>You guess on door #1. The host is staying in front of door #3. Door >>>> >>>> >>>#2 is 2 meters away from him, nevertheless he opens that door. What >>>would you expect to find behind door #3? A goat?! (Let us exclude >>>double-crossing!). >>> >>> >>>>----- Original Message ----- >>>>From: "Stefan Pochmann" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> >>>>To: <[email protected]> >>>>Sent: Wednesday, December 28, 2005 3:47 PM >>>>Subject: [Speed cubing group] Re: (Off topic)3 doors... >>>> >>>> >>>>Changing wins if and only if you initially chose the wrong door, i. >>>> >>>> >>>e. >>> >>> >>>>two times of three. >>>> >>>>Can you explain why your suggestion makes this wrong? >>>> >>>>Cheers! >>>>Stefan >>>> >>>> --- In [email protected], Rune Wesström <rune. >>>>[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: >>>> >>>> >>>>>In real life the host is Not staying totally symmetrically in >>>>> >>>>> >>>>relation to the doors. (He is right-handed Or left-handed. Maybe he >>>>has to take a halfstep to open a certain door etc.). If he now opens >>>>the "easiest" door, Not changing wins more often than one time of >>>>three. If he opens the other door, changing will win more often than >>>>two times of three. >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>>Yahoo! Groups Links >>>> >>>> >>>> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >>Yahoo! Groups Links >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >>Yahoo! Groups Links >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> > > > > > >Yahoo! Groups Links > > > > > > > >__________ NOD32 1.1342 (20051228) Information __________ > >This message was checked by NOD32 antivirus system. >http://www.nod32.com > > > > > ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~--> Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/MXMplB/TM --------------------------------------------------------------------~-> Yahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/speedsolvingrubikscube/ <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
