Anyone see this?

There's also a piece by Anthony Sampson in the Independent, but only 
for subscribers (which I'm not): "Anthony Sampson: The war in Iraq is 
distracting the West from the looming crisis in Saudi Arabia -- The 
ultimate nightmare for Western consumers is to find that the biggest 
oil exporter does not need to export" 22 May 2004

--------

http://www.arabnews.com/?page=6&section=0&article=44011&d=29&m=4&y=2004

Saudi Oil Is Secure and Plentiful, Say Officials
Tim Kennedy, Arab News

US Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan addresses a conference on 
US-Saudi energy relations in Washington on Wednesday.    


WASHINGTON, 29 April 2004 - Officials from Saudi Arabia's oil 
industry and the international petroleum organizations shocked a 
gathering of foreign policy experts in Washington yesterday with an 
announcement that the Kingdom's previous estimate of 261 billion 
barrels of recoverable petroleum has now more than tripled, to 1.2 
trillion barrels.

Additionally, Saudi Arabia's key oil and finance ministers assured 
the audience - which included US Federal Reserve Chairman Alan 
Greenspan - that the Kingdom has the capability to quickly double its 
oil output and sustain such a production surge for as long as 50 
years.

"During times of turmoil, when the world has needed more crude oil, 
Saudi Arabia has worked without fanfare to promote stability in world 
markets," Saudi Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources Ali 
Al-Naimi told the 300 attendees at a conference on US-Saudi energy 
relations co-sponsored by the US-Saudi Arabian Business Council and 
the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

"We have made a commitment to use our spare oil export capacity - 
even when it is stressful to our economic stability - in order to 
create a 'cushion' that maintains a balance in the global market," he 
said.

"Saudi Arabia now has 1.2 trillion barrels of estimated reserve. This 
estimate is very conservative. Our analysis gives us reason to be 
very optimistic. We are continuing to discover new resources, and we 
are using new technologies to extract even more oil from existing 
reserves," the minister said.

Naimi said Saudi Arabia is committed to sustaining the average price 
of $25 per barrel set by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting 
Countries. He said prices should never increase to more than $28 or 
drop under $22.

"This is a fair price to consumers and producers. But, really, Saudi 
Arabia and OPEC has limited control on world markets," said Al-Naimi.

"Prices are driven by other factors: Instability in key oil producing 
countries; industry struggles to produce specialized gasoline; and 
the resulting strains on refineries to meet local demand."

"Saudi Arabia's vast oil reserves are certainly there," Naimi added. 
"None of these reserves requires advanced recovery techniques. We 
have more than sufficient reserves to increase output. If required, 
we can increase output from 10.5 million barrels a day to 12-15 
million barrels a day. And we can sustain this increased output for 
50 years or more. There will be no shortage of oil for the next 50 
years. Perhaps much longer."

Greenspan said he found Naimi's news "most interesting," but during 
his luncheon speech the Fed chairman cautioned that in order for the 
United States to sustain economic growth it must increase importation 
of natural gas products as a hedge against rising energy prices.

"(We need a) massive expansion of liquefied natural gas shipping 
terminals and (must) develop new offshore re-gasification 
technologies," said Greenspan, who also warned that the economic 
growth of China is driving up the global demand - and cost - for 
steel, coal, oil, and natural gas.

Naimi said Saudi Arabia is acutely aware of the rising demands from 
China's booming economy.

"People are underestimating Chinese demand for natural gas imports," 
he said. "But we are ready to meet their demands but not at the 
expense of Saudi Arabia's oil markets, particularly the US and 
Europe."

Naimi said internal security is an additional concern to Saudi 
Arabia, which - according to Abdallah S. Jumah, president of Saudi 
Aramco - has required the Kingdom's largest oil company to hire 5,000 
people to protect its fields, pipelines and terminals."



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