Thompson, Mark L. (PNB R&D) wrote: > What is all this "Peak Oil" end of the world garbage.
Oil is a finite resource. All that remains to debate is when we will "run out" (and what the definition of that is). I think things get ugly once core demand exceeds production on a world scale. Personally, I expect that within my lifetime. I think affordability will be a factor long before oil is exhausted in a technical sense. I trust you have read Deffeyes, Hubbert, ASPO, Simmons, etc. and have evidence that debunks them. > > We have many decades if not 100+ years of conventional oil left. Emmm, actually North America has about 5 years of conventional oil left, if it were not for imports. (6 if you include ANWR.) Does your forecast allow for increasing and accelerating rates of consumption year over year? Or does it assume flat consumption into the future, like the optimistic government forecasts? > We have huge amounts of Tar Sands (1.7 Trillion barrels) to exploit. Actually, I doubt we can afford to do that. The groundwater and natural gas consumed in that processing will run out first. If we use oil from the oil sands to make more oil from the oil sands, my understanding is that this is a losing proposition on an EROEI basis based on the exising process and facilities (from oil sand to refined consumer product). > We have potential 1000's of years worth of Methane-Hydrates available. For which we currently do not have a viable technology in place as yet to harvest them. The implications of releasing that much methane into the environment (leakage, losses, accidents), or even the carbon dioxide resulting from using it do not bode well for habitability of the planet for humans in the long term. Perhaps you plan to use this methane to support the production of oil from the oil sands. > Estimated to be greater than twice the world total of oil. > We have almost limitless Nuclear energy potential through the use of > Breeder, Light water and Heavy water reactors. And no solutions in place on how to deal with the spent fuel on a permanent basis, well, other than putting them into weapons, be they nuclear weapons, depleted uranium in artillery shells, or dirty bombs. Even France is having second thoughts about the breeder cycle. > Not to mention the other - Wind - Water - Solar - BioFuels - etc. Now we're getting to sustainable solutions. > All of which are up and coming. The higher energy cost go up the more > pressure there will be on "Alternate" sources. Do you think we have enough time to implement these solutions on a mass scale before oil and natural gas shortages, even intermittent ones, are disrupting the technological infrastructure that underpins western "civilization"? Alberta has just put a road-block in front of further wind development in the province. The U.S. federal government is actively working against the Cape wind project. However, billions are being spent on green-washing coal. > > As said before "Everything changes." All we need to do is plan for then > and adapt. There are limits to adaptation. Extinction is also an option. If the average temperature on the planet's surface rises dramatically, we won't last long. Humans don't survive long when exposed to temperatures above 40 degrees C for extended periods. > Go for it Anti-Carbon Crusaders, I see it coming. If we render the planet's surface uninhabitable for humans, where do you suggest we go? Space travel for 8 billion humans plus some life support strikes me as a rather energy intensive proposition. Darryl > > Mark > > > > -----Original Message----- > From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of John Mullan > Sent: Thursday, October 19, 2006 12:14 PM > To: biofuel@sustainablelists.org > Subject: Re: [Biofuel] Major Problems Of Surviving Peak Oil > > They used to do without any real significant oil back when? Say 1800s? > > The only difference was the size of the population. That will be the > cause of chaos since oil bred the population. > > I expect I only have 20 years left and with my luck, it will happen > before than. > > Sorry. Just my 2cents rambling. > > John > > > On 10/19/2006, "M&K DuPree" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > >> No doubt about it, the world runs on oil. No oil, no world, at >>least as we have known it. The realization of this when gas prices >>spiked a year > > > <snip> > > Yeah...whatever. "Everything changes." And, I guess I'll "cross > that bridge when I come to it." Maybe I'll know how to use a knife and > bow and arrow by then--or maybe not. Mike DuPree > > <snip> > _______________________________________________ Biofuel mailing list Biofuel@sustainablelists.org http://sustainablelists.org/mailman/listinfo/biofuel_sustainablelists.org Biofuel at Journey to Forever: http://journeytoforever.org/biofuel.html Search the combined Biofuel and Biofuels-biz list archives (50,000 messages): http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel@sustainablelists.org/
