Now that it appears Hicham El Guerrouj may leave the 1500m for longer
distances (although he postponed that move in Zurich), I decided to look
back on his championship career and that of his predecessor, Noureddine
Morceli. The impetus for this was a re-reading of Track and Field News'
1997 WC edition. In the story on the 1500m, won by El Guerrouj with
Morceli fourth, Jeff Hollobaugh wrote:
"Whether his [El G] career will unfold the way his predecessor's has,
with an endless chase for records behind a procession of rabbits, or
whether he will retain the fearlessness that marked his rise to the top,
these are questions that only El Guerrouj can answer."
Well, I guess they have been answered, and in spades! Not only did El
Guerrouj chase, and catch, the 1500, Mile and 2000 records behind a
procession of rabbits (and also miss the 3K at 7:23.09), but with the
help of a couple of teammates he turned the last three major
championship 1500's into Grand-Prix-like, paced races as well, with
mixed results.
Although it's certainly true that Morceli ran a lot of paced races in
invitationals, he won (and lost) his championship races without the aid
of a countryman. Of course, he never had a countryman in the final with
him, so who's to say what would have happened if he had. That's the
tough part about getting a rabbit in a championship race - he has to be
good enough to make the final, but not so good as to be a real medal
prospect, lest he be so "selfish" as to run his own race.
In all of his championship wins ('91, '93 & '95 WC and '96 OG), Morceli
took the lead before the bell, as early as the 900m point in Atlanta.
The pace for the first 800 ranged from 1:57.4 to 2:01.8. His fastest win
was 3:32.84 in '91, a race he won by 2 seconds. In '93, he fashioned a
50.6 last 400, while in '96 he put up a monster 1:48.8 last 800. 1996
was the last year of his "dominant period", but he competed in the next
three Championships, finishing fourth in '97, dropping out of the final
in '99 and finishing dead last in his semi (4:00+) in the '00 OG. His
loss (7th place) in Barcelona was an odd race, a 2:06.8 first 800
turning it into a speed test that Morceli failed, finishing 1 1/2
seconds behind Cacho's 50.5 last 400, but he ran 50.6 himself off a
considerably faster pace in Stuttgart. About two weeks and four weeks
after Barcelona, Morceli ran 3:30.75 and 3:28.86 for his first World
Record.
The "elite elite" periods of Morceli's and El Guerrouj's careers
overlapped from Goteborg through Athens. El Guerrouj won the World
Indoor 1500 in '95 and really impressed me in doing so. He wasn't quite
ready for Morceli outdoors, though, losing by 1.55 sec over the last
400, 51.3 to 52.8. Just before Goteborg, Morceli had set his last 1500
WR, 3:27.37, and also run 3:27.52. Three days after the 1500 final, he
ran 3:45.19 to beat El Guerrouj's 3:48.69, and finished up with a WR
3:44.39 at Rieti.
By Atlanta, El Guerrouj may have been ready to match Morceli. They came
into the meet with SB's of 3:29.50 and 3:29.59. By next year, Morceli
had started to decline and it was El Guerrouj who was dominant, but this
race might have seen a titanic battle over the last lap had EG not taken
his famous (infamous?) fall. After a 2:01.8 800, the last 700 was run in
1:34, which is a 1:47.4 pace for 800! I'd sure like to get a peek at one
of the "parallel worlds" in which El G kept his feet!
The '97 race was quite similar to Atlanta, with almost the same pace at
800. El Guerrouj took command at the kilo mark, followed by Morceli, but
it was no contest over the last lap, and his last 800 of 1:48.9 and 700
of 1:33.8 were almost identical to Morceli's pace from Atlanta.
All these races were quite similar, with relatively slow early pace and
the winner taking over before the bell, never to be headed.
In 1999, Morocco introduced, or re-introduced, the "Championship
rabbit." Twenty-year-old Adil El Kaouche, with 3:34.28 credentials, made
the final by finishing 3rd in the faster semi. Among those he beat were
Morceli (6th) and Steve Holman (7th), both of whom made the final on
time only in the 5 + 2 qualifying scheme, so he certainly earned his
spot. He took the lead in the first homestretch and towed the field
through a 1:52.2 first 800, at which point El Guerrouj took over and
completed a magnificent 3:27.65, by about 5 seconds the fastest ever run
in a "major." El Kaouche covered his last 700 in about 1:55 to finish
last of the finishers, Morceli having dropped out shortly after the
bell. After the race, the Spaniard Reyes Estevez, bronze medalist, said,
"The beauty of the final was taken away by the Moroccans because one of
them ran as a pacemaker. If it had been run slower - say at a 3:37
rhythm, which I find more comfortable - I would have made things more
difficult for them." I remember, at the time, not feeling much sympathy
for Estevez. Hey, 3:37 is more comfortable for everyone, but if you
can't take the heat, etc.
Now, recall that in 1960 Herb Elliot set a World Record by taking off
with 700m to go, having followed France's Michel Bernard's 1:58 pace for
the first 800. Elliot was, quite rightly it seems to me, heaped with
praise for having the courage to risk a gold medal by taking the lead
relatively early and running all out. El Guerrouj did the same thing,
yet it doesn't quite seem the same to me. Elliot, for one thing, had to
take "pot luck" on the pace; as far as I'm aware, there was no agreement
between Elliot and Bernard, who IIRC was a "chronic front runner." Also,
Bernard's pace was not as hot, relative to the final time, as El
Kaouche's, which was presumably designed to protect El Guerrouj from the
2:12.96 kilo speed of Noah Ngeny (2:11.96 WR after Seville), who had
finished only .27 sec behind EG in the WR mile in early July.
Next year, it was Youssef Baba, same birth year as El Kaouche and with a
3:33 best, who sacrificed his chance to run well in the final. Baba took
the lead around the first curve and hit 54.2 at 400, but let the pace
fall badly over the second lap, to 60.7. El Guerrouj took the lead at
800, just like the year before, but the pace was 2 1/2 seconds slower.
Despite the slower pace, El G did not move as decisively as a year
before, reaching the bell over 4 seconds slower than in Seville while
moving the air aside for Ngeny and Lagat, sitting behind him and
"licking their chops." Well, we all know that Ngeny out-kicked El
Guerrouj in the stretch, running a 12.8 last 100 to 13.1 for El G, who
ran his last 200 1.2 seconds faster than in '99. The question arises,
was El G let down by his pacemaker? What if the second lap had been like
Seville? Would that have blunted Ngeny's finish enough? I wonder whether
Baba got criticized for letting the pace drop so much? My impression is
that it wouldn't have made any difference. When El Guerrouj took the
lead, he didn't put the pressure on the way he did in Seville. I just
think he wasn't as sharp in Sydney, that on the day he didn't have the
ability to run away from Ngeny.
In Edmonton this month, both Baba and El Kaouche were entered in the
1500, but Baba finished last in his semi. Kaouch (listed in the Edmonton
program as Adil Kaouch) once again qualified solidly, 2nd to Lagat in
the faster semi, 3:36.01 for a seasonal best. With Ngeny left off the
Kenyan team, Lagat, William Chirchir, Estevez and Rui Silva figured to
be the closest pursuers. El G came in with 3:28.38 and 3:44.95 under
his belt and a couple of wins over Ngeny. Sure enough, Kaouch took the
lead almost from the start, and took the 800 mark in 1:53.7. He was
slowing, though, so El G took the lead and picked the pace back up,
running 42.2 from 800 to the bell. He put more pressure on, running 26.8
to 1300, but then slowed noticeably. About halfway down the homestretch,
Lagat was gaining and I thought El G might be in trouble, but he glanced
back and mustered a little extra, then started waving and throwing
kisses the last 5-10m. His 3:30.68 was the 2nd-fastest 1500 in a major
final, and excellent for the altitude.
Zurich was another carbon copy; El G got terrific pacemaking, under 1:50
at 800 and under 2:47 at 1200, but was really laboring over the last
half lap, finishing in 3:29.06.
It appears that El Guerrouj, while still the best in the world, has
stopped improving. I wonder whether it could be boredom? Basically,
every race he runs, including major championship finals, is the same.
So, getting back to Jeff Hollobaugh's questions, the "endless procession
of rabbits" has been extended into the only races that were previously
free of them. OTOH, El Guerrouj has always done a substantial amount of
the work himself and has exposed himself as a target repeatedly over the
last 700m. It actually seems to me that Jeff is selling Morceli short -
he won four major championship races, decisively, without a pacemaker
and while taking command before the bell. He lost two, and the last two
he probably should have skipped. To me, that's a great *racer*.
El Guerrouj has a win, a 2nd and a fall in non-paced championships, and
two wins and a 2nd when he had the pace set up for him.
Looking back at Estevez' complaint, I'm coming around to his way of
thinking. To me, it does "spoil the beauty" of an international
championship to have a runner sacrifice himself to benefit a teammate.
For one thing, I think of track as an individual sport, except for the
relays, of course. For another, I'd like to see a "level playing field"
for everyone in a championship race. I don't think El Guerrouj needs an
advantage. If he is concerned about Ngeny's or Estevez' finish and wants
a fast pace, then he should have to take the risk, as Paula Radcliffe
has, of making it his kind of race.
Here's hoping when/if El Guerrouj contests the 5000 final in Paris 2003
that any other Moroccans who may be in the race will be running for
themselves!
Cheers,
Alan Shank
