Why do I feel that you're putting a lot more thought into this than anyone at NBC is? jd
On Sat, Nov 28, 2009 at 12:59 PM, PGage <[email protected]> wrote: > WK 2-3 4-6 7 8 9 10 11 > M: 5.7 4.6 4.6/1.3 4.3/1.3 4/1.2 4.6/1.2 4.5/1.4 > T: 6.7 5.8 6.1/1.8 6.5/2.0 5.7/1.4 6/1.8 4.9/1.9 > W: 6.2 5.7 5.0/1.5 4.7/1.3 4.6/1.4 5.2/1.4 5.1/1.6 > Th: 4.9 5.0 4.4/1.6 4.7/1.7 4.6/1.6 4.8/1.6 5.0/1.5 > F: 5.6 5.5 5.1/1.2 4.6/1.2 4.7/1.2 5.1/1.5 3.5/1 > AVE: 5.8 5.3 5.3/1.5 5.0/1.5 4.7/1.4 5.0/1.5 4.6/1.5 > > Times are such for the Jay Leno Show that from now on any week in > which his average rating is 1.5 or higher must be considered a good > week (even though is actually the minimum rating he can get and still > be profitable for NBC, and most observers originally thought NBC had > set this as a low bar that Leno would regularly and significant > exceed). Leno had a 1.5 average rating for the week, so by that > standard this was a good week for him. > > I knew this week would be hard to interpret - Sweeps ended in the > middle of the week, and Leno was new vs reruns on Thanksgiving > Thursday. It now seems even more complicated, because from what I can > tell, contrary to some earlier reports, Leno was a rerun Friday night > (in what may be a telling sign, I just watched the monologue off of my > TiVo and still had trouble telling if it was a rerun, but there were > not jokes about Thanksgiving or Tiger Woods, and there were jokes > about Carrie Prejean's masturbatory sex tape, it did not seem to be > fresh). > > The raw facts are that Week 11 was Leno's least watched week ever > )average 4.6 million viewers). I had written previously that Leno's > comeback seemed to signal a stabilization at around 5 million viewers, > but this week could be seen as a comedown from that. However his > average rating in the demo was stable at the bare minimum for success > of 1.5, and of course there were just fewer television viewers this > week. And if Leno really was in reruns on Friday (and for his sake I > hope he was) it proves one thing - Leno should never, ever, be shown > in reruns. his 3.5 Million viewers, 1.0 rating in the demo were both > by far the lowest numbers he has ever drawn. While the good news for > Leno may be that he has an advantage when other shows are in reruns > (though this has not yet been established to be true) the bad news is > that he himself seems to do so badly in reruns that I don't see how > NBC can ever rerun the program in primetime. Whenever Leno goes on a > break (I think he is scheduled for something like 4-5 weeks of > vacation for the year) NBC, it seems to be, has to put something else > on - maybe Carson reruns, or Dateline + specials, or even L&O reruns. > Really, just about anything would probably be better than Leno reruns. > > The good news for Leno is that if you remove the horrible Friday > numbers, this week was actually pretty good - his average rating was a > 1.6, as good or better than previous weeks. The Thanksgiving Thursday > show was probably a success - it tied for his second largest number of > viewers for a Thursday (not counting premier week) ever at 5 million. > OTOH, the rating in the demo was the worst he has had for a Thursday > since I have been tracking this (the last 5 weeks) 1.5 instead of 1.6 > or 1.7, which is odd since Thursday is usually a good night for Leno > in the demo, if not in total viewership. I see now that his lead-in > with a rerun of The Office wedding episode, so that probably explains > it (I have been suspecting that his good demo numbers on Thursday were > mostly due to The Office and supplemented by 30 Rock). > > Next week will also be difficult to decipher (frankly, there have not > been many what you might call "normal" weeks since the Leno show began > - I think almost every week I have to note some factor that made the > week atypical, so I wonder what a typical week actually looks like?). > I suspect many network shows will be in reruns. I have been waiting > for a real "rerun" week (the first rerun week was not a good indicator > in my view because it was not obvious most shows would be reruns. I > think for most of December most people will be expecting a lot of > reruns). This is where Leno is supposed to show his strength, and I am > eager to see how he does. But of course this week he will be preempted > by the Obama Show, and it will be Tuesday - usually his strongest > night, and from what I have heard the lead-in show is having a much > anticipated 2 hour program, which probably would really have helped > Leno. Even in a good week Leno's weekly average would be significantly > hurt if Tuesday numbers were deleted, so that will hurt him. Assuming > we can somehow make an appropriate statistical adjustment for the > absence of Tuesday numbers, and assuming that net week really is > reruns (which I have not actually seen reported officially anywhere) > Leno really needs to show an improvement next week over his recent > ratings - I should think he needs something in the 5.3 million, 1.6 or > 1.7 rating range to have any hope of validating the oft-repeated claim > that the secret to his success will be cleaning up against the big > 10:00 pm dramas when they are in reruns. > > -- > TV or Not TV .... 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