WK 2-3 4-6 7 8 9 10 11 12 M: 5.7 4.6 4.6/1.3 4.3/1.3 4/1.2 4.6/1.2 4.5/1.4 4.7/1.3 T: 6.7 5.8 6.1/1.8 6.5/2.0 5.7/1.4 6/1.8 4.9/1.9 DARK* W: 6.2 5.7 5.0/1.5 4.7/1.3 4.6/1.4 5.2/1.4 5.1/1.6 5.6/1.5 Th: 4.9 5.0 4.4/1.6 4.7/1.7 4.6/1.6 4.8/1.6 5.0/1.5 4.7/1.5 F: 5.6 5.5 5.1/1.2 4.6/1.2 4.7/1.2 5.1/1.5 3.5/1 4.8/1.4 AVE: 5.8 5.3 5.3/1.5 5.0/1.5 4.7/1.4 5.0/1.5 4.6/1.5 5.2/1.5*
In calculating Leno's average this week (the week he was preempted by Obama's Afghan War speech) I substituted his average Tuesday rating for the 4 prior weeks (not counting Thanksgiving) which were 6.1/1.8. It is not fair to calculate his average this week without some estimate of a Tuesday number, since Tuesday is his best night. The Biggest Loser got a 10.2/3.9 in that time slot - I would like to see if the NBC affiliates that have been bitching about the numbers for their late local news had any significant bumps that night. This was one of the weeks Leno was supposed to perform well - up against reruns for the most part (exclusively?). Last week I had set the bar for a good showing for him at 5.3/1.6. He came in at 5.2/1.5. There is a fudge factor here, since with a big lead in from the weight loss show, if had been on Tuesday he may have done better than average and gotten to 5.3. While these numbers are a bit disappointing, at least they are up over his performance against first runs shows (this was his best week in over a month, since week 7), and for that at least NBC must be a little relieved at least. Still, Leno is still coming in third most nights even against reruns, and this is not the expectation that NBC had established in the run up to the show over last spring and summer. I am a little surprised that Leno's number is relatively okay for Monday, when he was up against a very highly rated MNF game. I see he had Jenifer Lopez on that night - does she really still have the power to attract young men away from football? Or is it possible that, against a weaker football game, Leno may do even better against reruns of CSI:Miami and Castle? The narrative here continues to be that Leno is under performing expectations, but seems to have dug his fingernails in and is holding right at the lower margin of what is tolerable for the mothership. I think there is some hope that his numbers will go up a bit over the next three weeks, based on my own theory that many TV watchers do not keep close tabs on when reruns start. Now that most people know their shows are in reruns at 10:00, more of them may think to go back and check out Leno - we shall see. Jeff Zucker did an interview with his minions on CNBC last week (see it at: http://tvbythenumbers.com/2009/12/04/video-zucker-on-jay-leno-in-terms-of-ratings-its-doing-exactly-what-we-thought-it-would-do/35312) In it he says that Leno is doing “exactly what we thought it would do,” which is disingenuous, and must be translated as "Leno is not below the minimum number we had established before the show began, though we had intentionally set that bar low expecting to be able to brag now that he was doing better than expected". Even so, Zucker does acknowledge that Leno is hurting affiliates more than he had expected, and says ambiguously that they will have to look at that. Shockingly the CNBC people do not push him on this. The line I saw repeated a lot (on tvbythenumbers and elsewhere) in response to speculation that Leno will be canceled as a result of the Comcast deal is that it will never happen because NBC has nothing to put on its place. This is something that Aaron Barnhart has been saying since early October. But this misses two points - one is that the real speculation is not that Leno will be canceled this season, but that he will not be brought back next season. The other is the suggestion (well, it is my pet suggestion that I don't see being considered anywhere else) that NBC scale Leno back to three nights a week, starting maybe in February. I think this is very easy to do. If I were in charge of programming at NBC, I would tell the affiliates that we were going to move L&O SVU to Mondays at 10:00, and original L&O to 10:00 on Firday (I would actually do that right now and not even wait till the next sweeps), and then fill 9:00 on Wednesday with an extra Dateline and Friday with specials, reruns of whatever they got, and/or repurposed programs from cable. I am sure that something like Battlestar Galactica, or In Plain Sight, or even a "Best of" The Flip Wilson Show or Dean Martin Roasts would do as well or better than Leno at 10:00 on Fridays. Tuesday - Thursday are Leno's best nights of the week, and I think they would do even better if he were less available, plus (and this really is as important as any other consideration) the quality of the programs would go up significantly if these guys had more time to work on it. Basically give them Friday and Monday to work on comedy bits for T-TH and the show will get better (I personally do not find Leno's comedy funny, but he is a professional comedian and has shown he can put together appealing and entertaining bits if he has the time to do it). Nobody in the history of television has been asked to fill as much network primetime with original comedy material as Jay Leno has this fall, and arguably it just can not be done well. -- TV or Not TV .... The Smartest (TV) People! You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "TV or Not TV" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/tvornottv?hl=en
