> > As for citing the free nature of OTA television, the reason behind ABC > making this move is because it is hemorrhaging OTA viewers and rather than > try to cultivate the online audience they have, they want to force some of > them back to broadcast. >
I want to think about this particular claim, that ABC closed the free online streaming window to build its live broadcast ratings, a little more. In its press release ABC suggests that the move was made to help protect its cable partners (“Pay TV service providers are a key part of the television industry in delivering broadcast content through new technology platforms"). I think this is likely to be the main reason. However, TVBTN has reported that Live+7 ratings have not had any significant contribution on a programs chances of being cancelled or renewed (thus, it would follow, also no impact on ad rates). My first thought was that this meant that there were not very many additional viewers in the 7 days after broadcast, making it unlikely that ABC made this change to turn delayed viewers into live viewers. But then I went back and check the actual numbers. Scandal had 9.3 million total viewers for its last fresh episode (it is the 2nd highest rated scripted program on television, and the highest rated drama), but added 50% more viewers in the 7 days after initial broadcast. That is a pretty good size pie, and if ABC could get, say, a million of those delayed viewers to watch live it would significantly increase ratings in the period that does impact ad rates. So maybe this is part of the motive. Except - assuming here that the Live+7 numbers include online viewing at abc.com and hulu, and DVR and cable-based On Demand viewing, it is not clear how much of that is from the online viewing. I suspect the lion's share of that is DVR and VOD. I am now interested in knowing how many viewers watched Scandal in its mid-season finale at abc.com and hulu combined. I will be very surprised if that number is 1 million or more, and not at all surprised if it is less than 500,000 - I will make my guess 750,000. To increase Scandal's ratings by even 5%, the closing of the free 7 day streaming window would have to move about 450,000 delayed viewers to live viewers. If there were 750,000 delayed online viewers, they would have to get 60% of them to switch to live viewing (and if there are somewhat less than 500,000, as I suspect, they would have to get just about all of them to switch to live). So, it seems unlikely to me that ABC made this move with any serious hope of significantly (at least 5%) increasing broadcast ratings for its programs. This is based on the assumption that authorized, free online streaming makes up less than 25% of the time-shifted viewing during the 7 day window, and that less than 50% of those who do stream during the window would switch to live viewing. I am interested in having these assumptions checked against actual data if anyone has access to it (I could not find it from a casual google search). -- -- TV or Not TV .... The Smartest (TV) People! You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "TV or Not TV" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/tvornottv?hl=en --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "TVorNotTV" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
