So, I have not had the time to gather the more comprehensive data I
originally wanted, so I am just going to share this for whatever it is
worth. My interest is in getting an approximation of what the standard
discount on ratings for 2917-18 might be for big event television programs
compared to X years ago. I have been frustrated by media stories staring
off by saying “Event Y had  lower ratings this year.” Almost every event
program is going to have lower ratings - so we have to have some sense of
how much lower the ratings of Program Y have to be to be actually off.

I don’t have enough data for that. But I did get the ratings for the
Daytona 500, NBA All-Star Game, Super Bowl and Winter Olympics from this
year back to 2011 (for the W Olympics I used 2010). I divided the 2018
rating by the 2011 rating for each, then found the mean for the 4 events.
The average drop was about 80%.

I was interested to see how much lower the rating for the Daytona 500 was
this year - I don’t follow that sport closely, so I dont know if there was
anything unique about this year that would explain that. But it is not
consistent with the hypothesis that the ratings decline for the NFL this
year were due to the protest about police violence surrounding the National
Anthem, since the Trump friendly NASCAR event did so much worse in the
ratings. Indeed, while the NFL showed this year it was not immune to the
general tv ratings decline, it still is holding up better than just about
anything else on television, which probably makes it, relatively speaking,
even ore valuable than it was in the recent past.



*Daytona 500*

*NBA All-Star Game*

*Super Bowl*

*Winter Olympics*


*2018*

5.1

5.1

43.1

19.8


*2017*

6.5

5.1

45.3



*2016*

6.1

5.4

46.6



*2015*

7.3

5.5

47.5



*2014*

5.6

4.9

46.7

21.3


*2013*

10.0

5.9

46.3



*2012*

7.7

5.4

47



*2011*

8.2

6.2

46

24.4


*Mean drop 2011 to 2018*

62.20%

82.26%

93.70%

81.15%


*Grand Mean =*

79.82%








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