On 15/Apr/20 12:28, Denesh Bhabuta wrote:
> All of these need to be taken in to account, IMHO.
While I agree with everything you are saying, we need to consider these:
* It is more and more likely that each country is going to extend the
lockdown at some point or other. So we'd do well to not expect the
dates they are telling us to remain as truth.
* As each lockdown is extended, re-opening will just take that much
longer.
* Even as lockdowns are lifted, I believe it will be done gracefully.
By the time everything gets back up to speed, I think we'll be more
than a year in.
* Countries are likely to lift lockdowns at different times. So while
an airport in one country may be open, another one at your
destination of interest may not.
* And then there is personal confidence in travel and immigration. For
me, I have no plans to jump on a plane for the rest of 2020,
regardless of what happens with country lockdowns. How long it will
take to rebuild that travel confidence is hard to say, but I'd wager
that it won't be the moment governments lift lockdowns.
* We would also be wise to account for the possibility that after
lockdowns are lifted and social interactions start to pick up, some
countries will see re-infections, which could trigger another lockdown.
All in all, I'd say 2020 is a write-off from a "normalcy" perspective,
and the 1st half of 2021 is looking a little sketchy as the fall-out
spills over.
As the Internet community, some kind of hybrid between traditional
physical meetings and online gatherings is a hybrid model we should, at
the very least, work toward as our #NewNormal .
Mark.
